Tournament: CEDA | Round: 1 | Opponent: Trinity RS | Judge: Sean Slattery

1AC

Plan

Plan: The United States Federal Government should restrict targets of targeted killing operations using remotely piloted vehicles to individuals identified as leaders of transnational organizations with direct involvement in past or ongoing violent operations against the United States

Norms

Prolif is coming – reducing sig strikes sets norms – restrains global drone wars

David Knoll, doctoral candidate in International Relations at the Fletcher School of Law 26 Diplomacy at Tufts University, 10-23-2012, "Will America’s Addiction to Drone Strikes Backfire?" The Diplomat, http://thediplomat.com/2012/10/ok-drone-the-global-proliferation-of-uavs/
The spread of UAVs has also reached America’s foes. Iran touts an indigenously developed
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contribute to rather than detract from U.S. and global security.

The plan buys us time – squo accelerates drone prolif

Michael Boyle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, January 2013, "The costs and consequences of drone warfare," International Affairs vol 89 no 1, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/International20Affairs/2013/89_1/89_1Boyle.pdf
The emergence of this arms race for drones raises at least five long-term
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and sold by rival Great Powers whose interests do not mirror its own.

That causes rapid drone deployment in Asia – multiple scenarios for conflict – building norms uniquely key

Shawn Brimley, vice president of the Technology and National Security Program for a New American Security, Ben FitzGerald, Director of Technology and National Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and Ely Ratner, deputy director of the Asia Program at the Center for a New American Security, 9-17-2013, "The Drone War Comes to Asia," Foreign Policy, http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/09/17/the_drone_war_comes_to_asia?page=full
Without a doubt, China’s drone adventure 100-miles north of the Senkakus was
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political leadership, these technologies could very well lead the region into war. 

Drones trigger Asia territory wars – encourages aggression

Sarah Kreps, Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and Assistant Professor of Government at Cornell University, and Micah Zenko, Douglas Dillon Fellow in the Center for Preventative Action at the Council on Foreign Relations, March-April 2014, "The Next Drone Wars," http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140746/sarah-kreps-and-micah-zenko/the-next-drone-wars
The mere possession of drones will not make traditional interstate warfare, which is already
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they would likely do more aggressively than if they were deploying piloted aircraft.

Extinction

Lawrence Wittner, Professor Emeritus of History at SUNY Albany, 11-28-2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?" www.huntingtonnews.net/14446
While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.
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—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction. 

Unrestricted drone prolif guarantees global retaliatory war

Eric Posner, professor at University of Chicago Law School, 5-17-2013, "The drone paradox; When robots eliminate the risk of casualties, wars are likely to become more common," National Post, ln
Similarly, we may be comfortable with giving the president authority to use military force
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killing machines has finally arrived. The law now has to catch up.

Plan cements support for drones and allows the US to shape drone norms

Micah Zenko, Douglas Dillon Fellow at the CFR, January 2013, "Reforming U.S. Drone Strike Policies," CFR, http://www.cfr.org/wars-and-warfare/reforming-us-drone-strike-policies/p29736
Existing practices carry two major risks for U.S. interests that are  likely
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nations to use these technologies  responsibly, we must use them responsibly."4

US policy sets norms – robust scholarship proves drones arms races result from state policy

Robert Farley, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky, 10-12-2011, "U.S. Drone Use Sets Global Precedent," World Politics Review, http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/10311/over-the-horizon-u-s-drone-use-sets-global-precedent
So which is it? Has the United States sparked a drone race, or
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policymakers should perhaps devote a touch more attention to the precedent they’re setting.

Specifically true in the context of drones – Boot is an idiot – US norms constrain proliferation of use – post-WWII norm building proves

James Whibley, MA in International Relations from the Victoria University of Wellington, 2-6-2013, "The Proliferation of Drone Warfare: The Weakening of Norms and International Precedent," Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, http://journal.georgetown.edu/2013/02/06/the-proliferation-of-drone-warfare-the-weakening-of-norms-and-international-precedent-by-james-whibley/
If drones are destined to proliferate, the more important issue may become whether American
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, then surely China or Russia possessing such a program would be terrifying.

Strikes

Unrestricted drone strikes are destroying the US-Pakistan relationship – only restricting them creates space for cooperation

Daniel Markey, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, 7-16-2013, "A New Drone Deal For Pakistan," Foreign Affairs, http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139584/daniel-markey/a-new-drone-deal-for-pakistan?page=show
For all its successes, the U.S. drone program in Pakistan is
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of control over the program, especially when it comes to target selection.

Forces Uzbekistan withdrawal

Azad Garibov, a foreign policy analyst at the Center for Strategic Studies (SAM) in Azerbaijan and a lecturer in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Khazar University, 5-28-2013, "The U.S. in Central Asia: Still an important balancer?" Turkish Weekly, http://www.turkishweekly.net/news/150929/the-u-s-in-central-asia-still-an-important-balancer.html
Recently, in light of the approaching 2014 withdrawal of the majority of U.
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interest in heavy equipment, like helicopters and mine-resistant armored vehicles.

Arming Uzbekistan cause Central Asia conflict and draws in Russia

Joshua Kucera, Central Asia and the Caucasus specialist, 3-26-2013, "Are The U.S. And Russia Fueling Tension Between Uzbekistan And Its Neighbors?" EurasiaNet, http://eurasianhub.com/2013/03/27/are-the-u-s-and-russia-fueling-tension-between-uzbekistan-and-its-neighbors/
The U.S.’s growing military ties with Uzbekistan may be a strategic
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circle of mistrust and tension. What may result, no one knows.

Nuke War

Victor Baranez, military commentator, 12-27-2011, "Who and Where Russia Threatens" Komsomolskaya Pravda, http://www.kp.ru/daily/25812/2790454 (translated from Russian)
And yet, where, in your opinion, could erupt war in which Russia
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military conflict between the parties unlikely. Since the mechanism of nuclear deterrence.

Signature strikes are particularly bad in Yemen – cultural norms mean signature strikes boost AQAP – HVT strikes DON’T

Gregory D. Johnsen, former Fulbright Fellow in Yemen, Ph.D. candidate in Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, co-founder of Waq al-Waq: Islam and Insurgency in Yemen Blog, was a member of the USAID’s conflict assessment team for Yemen, 8-15-2013, "How to Beat Al-Qaeda in Yemen," Bloomberg, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-15/how-to-beat-al-qaeda-in-yemen.html
Drone strikes can be an effective weapon. And the administration’s reluctance to put boots
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Qaeda, with the U.S. allying with its Yemeni partners.

Signature strikes destroy the Yemeni state – guarantee massive unrest

Hooria Mashhour, Yemen’s minister for human rights, 1-14-2014, "The United States’ bloody messes in Yemen," Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/hooria-mashhour-the-united-states-bloody-messes-in-yemen/2014/01/14/c21dfcec-7653-11e3-b1c5-739e63e9c9a7_story.html
The use of drones in Yemen might appear a simple, quick-fix option
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their fledgling democracy when our collective will is ignored by democracy’s greatest exponent?

State collapse causes instability in the Gulf of Aden

Ginny Hill, associate fellow at Chatham House where she runs the Yemen Forum, 11-20-2008, "While watching the Somali pirates..." The Guardian, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2008/nov/20/pirates-somalia-yemen
In addition, jihadi networks in Yemen appear to be growing as operating conditions in
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the middle of it, on one of the world’s busiest shipping routes.

Instability in the Gulf of Aden collapses global trade

Lev Shel Arieh, MA in Middle Eastern Studies from Tel Aviv University, 9-28-2011, " Yemen’s Chaos - August 2011," On the Middle East, http://yuriditsky.blogspot.com/2011/09/yemens-chaos-august-2011.html
Towards the end of July, the leader of AQAP, Nasir al Wuhayshi,
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world) with Al Shabaab’s reach can make for a particularly challenging situation.

Global nuclear war

Michael Panzner, faculty at the New York Institute of Finance, 2008, "Financial Armageddon: Protect Your Future From Economic Collapse," Accessed via GoogleBooks, p 136-138
Continuing calls for curbs on the flow of finance and trade will inspire the United
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between Muslims and Western societies as the beginnings of a new world war. 

Strikes guarantee AQAP attacks – without civilian deaths from drones, AQAP would have disbanded years ago

Farea Al Muslimi, Yemeni security analyst focused on issues of terrorism and security, 1-9-2014, "US drone attacks in Yemen protect no one but Al-Qaeda," Yemen Times, http://www.yementimes.com/en/1745/opinion/3332/US-drone-attacks-in-Yemen-protect-no-one-but-Al-Qaeda.htm
The spontaneous public backlash against Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
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school become terrified that the U.S. may have killed them.

Signature Strikes are uniquely bad – only legislation prevents executive use of them

David Rohde, investigative journalist, 3-1-2012, "How Obama’s drone war is backfiring", Foreign Policy, http://blogs.reuters.com/david-rohde/2012/03/01/how-obamas-drone-war-is-backfiring/
The emerging strategy — which Rhodes touted as "a far more focused approach to
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he asked me. "I don’t think we’ve answered that question yet."?

Yemen terrorism causes massive oil spikes

Amy Harder, Energy Correspondent for National Journal, 5-29-2013, "Al-Qaida Retaliation Would Drive Spike in Oil Prices," National Journal, http://www.nationaljournal.com/al-qaida-retaliation-would-drive-spike-in-oil-prices-20110502
"But Yemen now sticks out as the real country to watch because it has
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Institution’s energy-security initiative and is a senior fellow in foreign policy.

Oil shocks cause global economic collapse

Matthew Kroenig, assistant professor and IR field chair in dept of govt at Georgetown, and Robert McNally, president of the Rapidan Group, an energy market and policy consulting firm, and served as Special Assistant to the President at the U.S. National Economic Council and Senior Director for International Energy at the U.S. National Security Council, March-April 2013, "Iranian Nukes and Global Oil," The Naitonal Interest, http://www.matthewkroenig.com/Kroenig_Iranian20Nukes20and20Global20Oil.pdf
It is difficult to overstate how much modern civilization depends on continuous access to the
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buffer sufficient to keep prices stable in the face of geopolitical disruption risk.

Our theoretical models trump – transitions, future expectations, and diversionary war theory all confirm econ decline causes war

Jedediah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict
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not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.

Yemen collapse causes Middle-East instability

Michael Makovsky, Foreign Policy director of the Bipartisan Policy Center, et al, January 2011, "Fragility and Extremism in Yemen," BPC, http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/Yemen20Final20Report.pdf
Were the situation to deteriorate further, and Yemen to fail completely, the United
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in Yemen by exploiting these weaknesses and the state’s resultant lack of legitimacy.

ME instability goes nuclear

James A. Russell, Senior Lecturer, National Security Affairs, Naval Postgraduate School, 2009 (Spring) "Strategic Stability Reconsidered: Prospects for Escalation and Nuclear War in the Middle East" IFRI, Proliferation Papers, ~2326, http://www.ifri.org/downloads/PP26_Russell_2009.pdf
Strategic stability in the region is thus undermined by various factors: (1)
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the peoples of the region, with substantial risk for the entire world.

Instability spills over to the Horn of Africa

Ginny Hill, journalist specializing in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa, January 2010, "Yemen: Fear of Failure; Middle East and North Africa Programme", Chatham House, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/22924953ECE8BBF1492576EA000E8E41-Full_Report.pdf
Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through
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endanger the security of countries throughout the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa 

Major power wars

Caroline Glick, deputy managing editor of The Jerusalem Post, 12-10-2007, "Our World: Condi’s African holiday" Jerusalem Post, http://www.jpost.com/Opinion/Columnists/Our-World-Condis-African-holiday
The Horn of Africa is a dangerous and strategically vital place. Small wars,
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to Eritrea, Ethiopia has rejected the finding and so the conflict festers.  

Solvency

Individualized targeting solves due process, maintains operational flexibility, and ends signature strikes

Jennifer Daskal, fellow and adjunct professor at Georgetown Center on National Security and the Law at Georgetown University law Center, April 2013, "The Geography of the Battlefield: A Framework for Detention and Targeting Outside of the ’Hot’ Conflict Zone," University of Pennsylvania Law Review 161 U. Pa. L. Rev. 1165, ln
The law of international armed conflict permits the detention and killing of members of the
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an individualized assessment of the threat posed by each of the targets. n146

Establishing HVT norms solves blowback and establishes international norms – doing it publicly is key

Michael Boyle, Assistant Professor of Political Science at La Salle University, January 2013, "The costs and consequences of drone warfare," International Affairs vol 89 no 1, http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/International20Affairs/2013/89_1/89_1Boyle.pdf
In his second term, President Obama has an opportunity to reverse course and establish
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degree of political opposition that US drone strikes generate in states such as Pakistan 

and Yemen, as their leaders, and even the civilian population, often tolerate
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the US government holds itself legally and morally accountable for its behaviour. 156

HVTs matter – rigorous statistical data proves decapitation ends hostile groups

Patrick Johnston, associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation, 8-18-2012, "Drone Strikes Keep Pressure on al-Qaida," RAND, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2012/08/18/PJ.html
My study of leadership decapitation in 90 counter-insurgencies since the 1970s shows that
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led bin Laden to advise al-Qaida operatives to leave Pakistan’s Tribal Areas