Tournament: NDT | Round: 1 | Opponent: Vanderbuilt | Judge:
Solves – ICJ will rule against harmful use of force – ruling against the US boosts credibility
Murphy 8 - Professor of Law, George Washington University
(Sean, “The United States and the International Court of Justice: Coping with Antinomies,” in THE UNITED STATES AND INTERNATIONAL COURTS AND TRIBUNALS)
The formal means for mediating AND opportunities to speak to the legality of U.S. actions.
Net-benefit – subjecting use of force to ICJ jurisdiction invigorates the credibility of the institution – solves global stability
Meyer 3 – JD, American Society for International Law
(Howard, “Isn't It Time We Rejoin the World Court? (We Left in 1986),” http://hnn.us/articles/1465.html)
George W. Bush drew fire from law AND  justice would make the United States a safer place.

ICJ credibility solves Asian territorial disputes and leads to Asian regionalism
Strachan 9 – Research Intern, IPCS, New Delhi
(Anna Louise, “Resolving Southeast Asian Territorial Disputes: A Role for the ICJ,” http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/IB133-SEARP-AnnaICJ_(Read-Only).pdf)
Southeast Asia is currently embroiled AND ¶ towards eliminating territorial disputes within the ¶ region. 

So does SCS
Wesley 12 (Michael, Former Professor of International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, Former Executive Director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, “What's at stake in the South China Sea?”, 7/25/12, http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/whats-stake-south-china-sea)
The South China Sea is the flashpoint AND are likely to escalate.

Tournament: NDT | Round: 1 | Opponent: Vanderbuilt | Judge:
Solves – ICJ will rule against harmful use of force – ruling against the US boosts credibility
Murphy 8 - Professor of Law, George Washington University
(Sean, “The United States and the International Court of Justice: Coping with Antinomies,” in THE UNITED STATES AND INTERNATIONAL COURTS AND TRIBUNALS)
The formal means for mediating AND opportunities to speak to the legality of U.S. actions.
Net-benefit – subjecting use of force to ICJ jurisdiction invigorates the credibility of the institution – solves global stability
Meyer 3 – JD, American Society for International Law
(Howard, “Isn't It Time We Rejoin the World Court? (We Left in 1986),” http://hnn.us/articles/1465.html)
George W. Bush drew fire from law AND  justice would make the United States a safer place.

ICJ credibility solves Asian territorial disputes and leads to Asian regionalism
Strachan 9 – Research Intern, IPCS, New Delhi
(Anna Louise, “Resolving Southeast Asian Territorial Disputes: A Role for the ICJ,” http://www.ipcs.org/pdf_file/issue/IB133-SEARP-AnnaICJ_(Read-Only).pdf)
Southeast Asia is currently embroiled AND ¶ towards eliminating territorial disputes within the ¶ region. 

So does SCS
Wesley 12 (Michael, Former Professor of International Relations and Director of the Griffith Asia Institute at Griffith University, Former Executive Director of the Lowy Institute for International Policy, “What's at stake in the South China Sea?”, 7/25/12, http://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/whats-stake-south-china-sea)
The South China Sea is the flashpoint AND are likely to escalate.

Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: All | Judge: All

Rd 1 Neg v Dartmouth

1NC

Off

The war power authority of the president is activated by Congressional authorization- that’s key to set a limit on what the term means

Bejesky 2013 ~Robert Bejesky M.A. Political Science (Michigan), M.A. Applied Economics (Michigan), LL.M. International Law ¶ (Georgetown). The author has taught international law courses for Cooley Law School and the ¶ Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan, American government and ¶ constitutional law courses for Alma College, and business law courses at Central Michigan University ¶ and the University of Miami. 1/23/2013 "WAR POWERS PURSUANT TO FALSE PERCEPTIONS AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN THE "ZONE OF TWILIGHT"" St Mary’s Law Journal http://www.stmaryslawjournal.org/pdfs/Bejesky_Step12.pdf~~
Congressional war powers include the prerogatives to "declare War;" ¶ "grant Letters
AND
variety of the means which ¶ may be necessary to satisfy them."¶ 52

Prefer this interp based on limits- presidents assert they have the authority to do almost anything- they have huge institutional incentives to continue that trend- the negative cannot be expected to have a case neg to every assertion the OLC has ever made about what authority the president has

Our interpretation is also the best historically- prefer the legal grounding of our interpretation

Bejesky 2013 ~Robert Bejesky M.A. Political Science (Michigan), M.A. Applied Economics (Michigan), LL.M. International Law ¶ (Georgetown). The author has taught international law courses for Cooley Law School and the ¶ Department of Political Science at the University of Michigan, American government and ¶ constitutional law courses for Alma College, and business law courses at Central Michigan University ¶ and the University of Miami. 1/23/2013 "WAR POWERS PURSUANT TO FALSE PERCEPTIONS AND ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION IN THE "ZONE OF TWILIGHT"" St Mary’s Law Journal http://www.stmaryslawjournal.org/pdfs/Bejesky_Step12.pdf~~
The Framers selected a unitary executive model in as much as the term ¶ denotes
AND
usual and essential part in the definition of the executive ¶ authority.¶ 137

Off

By executive order, the President of the United States should commit the Solicitor General 26 White House Counsel’s Office to advance consultation with the Office of Legal Counsel and require written publication of Office of Legal Counsel opinions over current law regarding women in combat roles.  The President should publicly pledge to act consistent with these opinions.
The Office of Legal Counsel should opine that the best interpretation of current law requires the president to not exclude women from forces introduced into hostilities
CP competes on ’authority’ but solves – OLC rulings are binding as settled law, but crafting reduces links to net benefits
Trevor W. Morrison, October 2010 Columbia Law Professor
"STARE DECISIS IN THE OFFICE OF LEGAL COUNSEL," Columbia Law Review, 110 Colum. L. Rev. 1448.
On the other hand, an OLC that says "yes" too often is
AND
is remote and does not meaningfully threaten the effective bindingness of OLC’s decisions.

OLC can resolve WPA questions quickly and effectively
Cornelia Pillard Feb 2005 Supreme Court Inst, G-town U Law, former DOJ Deputy Asst Att Gen
http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub-http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub
Michigan Law Review, 103.4, "The Unfulfilled Promise of the Constitution in Executive Hands", 103 Mich. L. Rev. 676-758
Just as the SG is the federal government’s chief litigator, the head of the
AND
on issues that other lawyers or officials will ultimately resolve for themselves.109
Off

Obama’s pressuring the GOP with a strong display of Presidential strength and staying on message – the GOP will cave

Dovere, 10/1/13 (Edward, Politico, "Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line"
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3-http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3)

President Barack Obama started September in an agonizing, extended display of how little sway
AND
"They don’t suddenly start going the other way as people rethink this."

Having to defend authority derails the current agenda

Kriner 10 Douglas L. Kriner (assistant professor of political science at Boston University) "After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War", University of Chicago Press, Dec 1, 2010, page 68-69.
While congressional support leaves the president’s reserve of political capital intact, congressional criticism saps
AND
to its costs than if Congress stood behind him in the international arena. 

That takes Obama off-message – it undermines his constant pressure on the GOP

Milbank, 9/27/13 – Washington Post Opinion Writer (Dana, "Obama should pivot to Dubya’s playbook" Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-should-try-pivoting-to-george-bushs-playbook/2013/09/27/c72469f0-278a-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-should-try-pivoting-to-george-bushs-playbook/2013/09/27/c72469f0-278a-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html)

If President Obama can stick to his guns, he will win his October standoff
AND
If he retreats, he will embolden his opponents and demoralize his supporters.

All of his political capital key to dem unity and debt ceiling

Lillis, 9/7/13 (Mike, The Hill, "Fears of wounding Obama weigh heavily on Democrats ahead of vote"
Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/320829-fears-of-wounding-obama-weigh-heavily-on-democrats~~23ixzz2gWiT9H8u 

The prospect of wounding President Obama is weighing heavily on Democratic lawmakers as they decide
AND
through this fiscal thicket. These are going to be very difficult votes."

Failure to quickly raise the debt ceiling ensures collapse of the global economy, U.S. economic leadership, and free trade

Davidson 9/10 
Adam, co-founder of NPR’s "Planet Money," a podcast and blog, "Our Debt to Society", http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0, MCR
If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted again this fall, some serious financial decisions will
AND
free asset more risky, the entire global economy becomes riskier and costlier.

Econ collapse

 extinction====
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center,
AND
and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first
AND
expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Off

4GW is the most accurate description of modern war- escalation is likely if uncontained- executive authority is key to counter these threats

Li 2009 ~Zheyoa Li Winter, 2009 The Georgetown Journal of Law Public Policy 7 Geo. J.L. 26 Pub. Pol’y 373 "War Powers for the Fourth Generation: Constitutional Interpretation in the Age of Asymmetric Warfare" lexis~
Even as the quantity of nation-states in the world has increased dramatically since
AND
wide proliferation of easily deployable weapons of mass destruction, nuclear and otherwise.

Most likely nuclear escalation

Richards 2005 (Dr. Chet Richards, J. Addams 26 Partners July 12, 2005, "Dear Mr. 26 Ms. 1RP: Welcome to the 21st Century" http://www.zmetro.com/pdf/2005/07/welcome_21st_century_v4.pdf)
Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and continuing to the present day, insurgency
AND
is worth any backlash from the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

Case

Predictions necessary good enough

Garrett 2012 (Banning Garrett, director of the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Foresight Initiative, consultant for 22 years to the Department of Defense and other U.S. Government agencies carrying on a strategic dialogue with China, senior associate at CSIS and a founding board member of the U.S. Committee for Security Cooperation in the Asia Pacific and an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at George Washington University, January 23, 2012, "In Search of Sand Piles and Butterflies," Atlantic Council, http://www.acus.org/disruptive_change/search-sand-piles-and-butterflies)
"Disruptive change" that produces "strategic shocks" has become an increasing concern
AND
respond, and our ability to see opportunities that we would otherwise miss." 

Magnitude outweighs – as long as there is some life there’s only a risk they retain ontological capacity

Jonas 1996 Hans Jonas (Former Alvin Johnson Prof. Phil. – New School for Social Research and Former Eric Voegelin Visiting Prof. – U. Munich) 1996 "Morality and Mortality: A Search for the Good After Auschwitz", p. 111-112)
With this look ahead at an ethics for the future, we are touching at
AND
confession of faith we come to the end of our essay on ontology.

Util good- Calculation is good and doesn’t devalue life

Revesz 2008 Richard L. Revesz (Dean and Lawrence King Professor of Law at New York University School of Law, JD Yale Law School) and Michael A Livermore. (JD NYU School of Law, Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Integrity, and Managing director of the NYU Law Review). Retaking Rationality How Cots-Benefit Analysis Can Better protect the Environment and Our Health. 2008. P. 1-4.
Governmental decisions are also fundamentally different from personal decisions in that they often affect people
AND
that emotional foundation, and act effectively to bring about a better world.

No root cause of war – decades of research votes aff

Cashman 2000 Greg Cashman (Professor of Political Science at Salisbury State University) 2000 "What Causes war?: An introduction to theories of international conflict" pg. 9
Two warnings need to be issued at this point. First, while we have
AND
, but also a certain element of randomness or chance in their occurrence. 

"Structural violence" is reductive and inevitable

Boulding 1977 (Kenneth E. Boulding, economist, educator, peace activist, poet, religious mystic, devoted Quaker, systems scientist, and interdisciplinary philosopher, "Twelve Friendly Quarrels with Johan Galtung," Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 14, No. 1, JSTOR)
Finally, we come to the great Galtung metaphors of ’structural violence’ ’and ’positive peace’
AND
it may have done a disservice in preventing us from finding the answer. 

Human life is inherently valuable

Penner 2005 Melinda Penner (Director of Operations – STR, Stand To Reason) 2005 "End of Life Ethics: A Primer", Stand to Reason, http://www.str.org/site/News2?page=NewsArticle26id=5223
Intrinsic value is very different. Things with intrinsic value are valued for their own
AND
. Dutch doctors euthanize severely ill newborns and their society has accepted it.
The claim that IR is inherently patriarchal is counterproductive and false
Fernanado Tesson (professor of Law at Arizona State University) 1993 "Feminism and International Lay:  A Reply"
When we move from the philosophical domain to global political realities, there is even
AND
institutions are therefore inevitably oppressive of women is both politically counterproductive and patently false
Isolating feminist epistemological perspectives essentialize women’s experience and only reinforces other forms of oppression
Katharine Bartlett (professor of Law at Duke University School of Law) 1990 "Feminist Legal Methods" Harvard Law Review p. Lexis
Despite the valuable insights offered by feminist standpoint epistemology, however, it does not
AND
meaning speakers give to their own experiences onto the experiences of others. n195

2NC

Topicality

2NC Limits DA

Presidents claim authority to do all sorts of shit

Jennifer K. Elsea 2013 CRS Attorney
Jennifer K. Elsea Legislative Attorney Michael John Garcia Legislative Attorney Thomas J. Nicola Legislative Attorney February 19, 2013 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41989  Congressional Authority to Limit
Presidents from Truman to Obama have claimed independent authority to commit U.S.
AND
a way as to limit the power of the Commander in Chief. 73 

Literally doubles the educational benefit

Arrington 2009 (Rebecca, UVA Today, "Study Finds That Students Benefit From Depth, Rather Than Breadth, in High School Science Courses" March 4)
A recent study reports that high school students who study fewer science topics, but
AND
impacted twice as much as those in courses that touched on every major topic

Turns their offense—limits are vital to creativity and innovation

David Intrator (President of The Creative Organization) October 21, 2010 "Thinking Inside the Box," http://www.trainingmag.com/article/thinking-inside-box
One of the most pernicious myths about creativity, one that seriously inhibits creative thinking
AND
simply don’t fit into the rules you’re creating as you build your box.

Case

Util

This moral tunnel vision is complicit with the evil they criticize

Jeffrey Issac (professor of political science at Indiana University) 2002 Dissent, Spring, ebsco
As writers such as Niccolo Machiavelli, Max Weber, Reinhold Niebuhr, and Hannah
AND
not true believers. It promotes arrogance. And it undermines political effectiveness. 

In a nuclear world we have to weigh consequences.

Sissela Bok (Professor of Philosophy) 1998 Applied Ethics and Ethical Theory, Ed. David Rosenthal and Fudlou Shehadi
The same argument can be made for Kant’s other formulations of the Categorical Imperative:
AND
even killing an innocent person, in order that the world not perish.

The means/ends distinction is inevitable and a moral cop out.  There are no absolutes.  You have to weigh comparative risks.

Saul Alinsky (Professor and Social Organizer with International Fame, Founder of the Industrial Areas Foundation) 1971 Rules for Radicals, p. 24-27
We cannot think first and act afterwards.  From the moment of birth we are
AND
courageous beyond expectation and willing to sacrifice their lives to their moral convictions. 

Utilitarianism doesn’t justify evil—their examples are oversimplified exaggerations that mischaracterize utility—things like slavery don’t maximize the public good

Richard Palmer (professor at SUNY Fredonia) 1992 Teaching Philosophy, March
It seems that such oversimplifications are often couched in hypothetical contexts that pretend to show
AND
have to prevail in order to make these actions preferable to any others.

Arguments about extreme examples of utilitarianism are scare tactics without a basis in reality—utilitarianism itself checks the extreme examples because they are never in the greater good

Leonard Ratner (professor of law at USC) 1984 Hofstra Law Journal, Spring, lexis
Some nonutilitarians derive the possibility of a monstrous utilitarian result from the premise that the
AND
to some a prior morality divorced from human consequences and resting on faith.

1NR

OV

Biggest and fastest—- We’ll hit the debt ceiling on Oct 17, causing immediate economic catastrophe, causes a cascade of economic crises worldwide, causes great power war and war between regional competitors like India and Pakistan—- solving linear impacts like patriarchy and sexual violence is indeterminate and long term—- prefer short term high magnitude impacts, you can only die once and existence is a prerequisite to solving social problems because death destroys subjectivity

Turns the case—- economic decline hits women hardest, they’re statistically most likely to give up food or other essentials for their families—- other forms of gender violence like domestic violence and rape correlate to economic decline

Uniqueness

Obama will be able to hold firm on debt ceiling stance now.

CAROL E. LEE And PETER NICHOLAS October 3, 2013, 8:36 p.m. ET
White House’s Hard Line on Shutdown, Debt Ceiling Has Risks Attached http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303492504579113781436540284.html-http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303492504579113781436540284.html
President Barack Obama is sticking to his stance that he won’t negotiate with Republicans over
AND
be good, I don’t expect the government to reopen," he said.

None of their warrants assumes Obama has PC and is pushing – he’s not giving an inch now – that’s key the budget.

Parnes, The Hill, 9-30-13  Amie, "Not giving an inch is seen as best strategy for win at White House," http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/325663-not-giving-an-inch-is-seen-as-best-strategy-for-win-at-white-house
There was no shadow of doubt at the White House as the clocked ticked down
AND
’I’m not going to get on your level’, the better. " 

A2 Shutdown Thumper

Shutdown was a win for Obama – mobilizes his agenda

NBC NEWS 10 – 1 – 13 http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/01/20763839-winners-and-losers-of-the-government-shutdown?lite-http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/10/01/20763839-winners-and-losers-of-the-government-shutdown?lite

Here is a look at some of the shutdown’s winners and losers.
Winners:
President Barack Obama
At the end of the day, Obama’s signature domestic achievement — the Affordable Care Act — survived this fight intact.
What’s more, the president didn’t have to offer any concessions in exchange for leaving his namesake "Obamacare" law alone.
Unlike the 2011 debt-ceiling fight, when the administration agreed to the automatic spending cuts that would eventually form the basis of the sequester, this time the administration held the line and didn’t yield much ground to Republicans.
 The developments mark a somewhat stunning turnaround for Obama’s political fortunes over the last month.
Just a few week’s ago, the administration was struggling badly to win congressional approval for intervention in Syria — an initiative which had no less than Obama’s second-term relevance riding on it.
Now, Obama has dispensed with the Syria issue (for now) through diplomacy, and scored a major win over Republicans — a rare victory, given the waning prospects for immigration reform or major gun control legislation during his presidency.

2nc Link Wall

This isn’t a just a political capital DA—the 1nc read several link arguments that establish a unique window for the debt ceiling—

First—Obama has to be "President One Note" to bludgeon the GOP into submission, that’s Milbank—his strategy is working, but introducing new policy fights would derail his focus.

And, (Specific link args - Kriner) prove the plan would incite backlash and become a political football.

Next —challenging authority on these issues weakens his position independent of polcap.  It’s a losers lose argument unique to his position on a core counter-terror mission - Lillis.

Obama’s backlash to the plan turns case

Epps 13 (Feb 16, "Why a Secret Court Won’t Solve the Drone-Strike Problem," The Atlantic, Garrett, http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/02/why-a-secret-court-wont-solve-the-drone-strike-problem/273246/-http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/02/why-a-secret-court-wont-solve-the-drone-strike-problem/273246/)

Professor Stephen I. Vladeck of American University has offered a remedy to this problem
AND
they’d also get a judgment that the dead person had been killed illegally.
It’s an elegant plan, and the only one I’ve seen that would permit us
AND
may be entitled to some deference and discretion, but not complete immunity."
The real problem with Vladeck’s court might be political. I expect that any president would resist such a statute as a dilution of his commander in chief power, and enactment seems unlikely. Without such a statute, then, systematic review of secret drone killings must come inside the executive branch. 

That costs political capital and trades off with domestic priorities

O’Neil 7 (David, Adjunct Associate Professor of Law – Fordham Law School, "The Political Safeguards of Executive Privilege", Vanderbilt Law Review, 60 Vand. L. Rev. 1079, Lexis)

The first such assumption is belied both by first-hand accounts of information battles
AND
Shane observes, non-judicial resolution "becomes vastly more difficult." n187

Disagreements over authority trigger constitutional showdowns – even if the executive wants the plan – it’s about who decides, not the decision itself

Posner and Vermeule, 10 - *professor of law at the University of Chicago AND professor of law at Harvard (Eric and Adrian, The Executive Unbound, p. 75-77)

Showdowns occur when the location of constitutional authority for making an important policy decision is
AND
resolving the question of authority. We focus on this case for now.

2NC/1NR Hostilities /WPR links

Political opposition to the plan – Congress does not want to initiate a review process

Buchanon 13 (PRESIDENTIAL POWER AND ACCOUNTABILITY Bruce Buchanan is Professor of Government at the University of Texas at Austin Toward a Presidential Accountability System, Bruce Buchanan, 111)

A serious pre-invasion congressional vetting of any prospective decision for war would certainly
AND
lesser personal motives aside to defend against executive encroachment on their constitutional prerogatives.

Limiting the authority is extremely controversial and will require massive political capital – it tanks the agenda

Munoz 5/23 Carlo Munoz (staff writer at the Hill covering defense and national security) " President Obama on Thursday promised to ramp down or cancel outright a number of 9/11-era U.S. counterterrorism policies that would usher in a new chapter in America’s war on terror." The Hill 5/23/13 http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/301737-obama-seeks-to-ramp-down-911-rules-for-war-on-terror-http://thehill.com/blogs/defcon-hill/policy-and-strategy/301737-obama-seeks-to-ramp-down-911-rules-for-war-on-terror
Calls to close the Guantánamo Bay prison camp and to codify rules on drone strikes
AND
more toward preserving Obama’s foreign policy legacy than actual changes in counterterrorism strategy.

PC key

Obama’s strength will allow a debt deal without complicated battle and additional spending cuts

JONATHAN ALLEN | 9/19/13 6:42 PM EDT Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2013/09/republicans-budget-obama-97093.html~~23ixzz2fRhWaU12
There’s a simple reason President Barack Obama is using his bully pulpit to focus the
AND
our view that a shutdown would be anything but bad," Carney said.
Still, aides to the president and Boehner have said there’s no back-channeling going on between the two leaders, and White House officials say that while they expect Obama to talk with congressional leaders soon, there’s nothing on the schedule at the moment.
There’s also reason to think that the GOP establishment is afraid the brinksmen among House
AND
unacceptable concessions, and therefore it’s probably a wise posture at this time."

A2: PC Theory False

Political capital theory is true – newest data proves that presidents have significant legislative influence

Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science
(Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, "Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004," pg. 2-3)
Developing presidential coalition building as a generalizable class of strategies is itself instructive, a
AND
is real, often substantial, and, to date, greatly underestimated.

Political capital theory is true – modern presidents have unique capabilities – it’s finite

Beckmann and Kumar 11
(Matt, Professor of Political Science, and Vimal, How presidents push, when presidents win: A model of positive presidential power in US lawmaking, Journal of Theoretical Politics 2011 23: 3)
Fortunately for contemporary presidents, today’s White House affords its occupants an unrivaled supply of
AND
is to explicate those margins and show how presidents may systematically in?uence them.

Even if pundits exaggerate the president’s influence, it still is salient

Beckman 10 – Professor of Political Science
(Matthew N. Beckman, Professor of Political Science @ UC-Irvine, 2010, "Pushing the Agenda: Presidential Leadership in U.S. Lawmaking, 1953-2004," pg. 17)
Even though Washington correspondents surely overestimate a sitting president’s potential sway in Congress, more
AND
and do) draw on to help build winning coalitions on Capitol Hill.

A2 Winners win

A2 Winners win
Eberly 13 - assistant professor in the Department of Political Science at St. Mary’s College of Maryland
Todd, "The presidential power trap," Baltimore Sun, 1/21/13, Lexis
Only by solving the problem of political capital is a president likely to avoid a
AND
the current president’s mind today as he takes his second oath of office.

Obama thinks that pol cap is finite – he’ll back off controversial issues even if he’s winning

Kuttner 9, co-editor of The American Prospect and a senior fellow at Demos, author of "Obama’s Challenge: America’s Economic Crisis and the Power of a Transformative Presidency, 4/28/’9
(Robert, "Obama Has Amassed Enormous Political Capital, But He Doesn’t Know What to Do with It," http://www.alternet.org/economy/138641/obama_has_amassed_enormous_political_capital,_but_he_doesn27t_know_what_to_do_with_it/?page=entire)
We got a small taste of what a more radical break might feel like when
AND
a little of both, but he defaults to the politics of accommodation. 

Sequencing – unpopular policies ruin the agenda– Obama’s entire first term proves

Hirsh, 2/7 —- Chief correspondent (2/7/2013, Michael, "There’s No Such Thing as Political Capital; The idea of political capital—or mandates, or momentum—is so poorly defined that presidents and pundits often get it wrong," http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207)-http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207))

.¶ THE REAL LIMITS ON POWER¶ Presidents are limited in what they can do
AND
was sucking all the oxygen out of the room, the aides said.

Hirsch concedes PC matters

Hirsh, 2/7 —- Chief correspondent (2/7/2013, Michael, "There’s No Such Thing as Political Capital; The idea of political capital—or mandates, or momentum—is so poorly defined that presidents and pundits often get it wrong," http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207)-http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/there-s-no-such-thing-as-political-capital-20130207))

The point is not that "political capital" is a meaningless term. Often
AND
that matters, if you have popularity and some momentum on your side." 

A2: Econ D (Resilient/ No War)

Double-dip now causes depression - overwhelms their D

Isidore 11 (Financial Correspondent-CNN Money, 8/10, http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/10/news/economy/double_dip_recession_economy/index.htm
Another recession could be even worse than the last one for a few reasons.
AND
this new recession would likely have virtually no policy effort to counteract it. 

Cap Sustainable

Sustainable growth now

Economist 2012 (The Economist, February 16, 2012, "Blood, Gore and capitalism," http://www.economist.com/blogs/schumpeter/2012/02/sustainable-capitalism)
THESE are busy days for Al Gore. In late January, the former vice
AND
firms that it expected to do better than average over the long term. 

Rd 3 Neg v Trinity

1NC

Off

Terrorist capabilities are degraded- they still have operational intent though

McLaughlin 2013 ~John McLaughlin was a CIA officer for 32 years and served as deputy director and acting director from 2000-2004. He currently teaches at the Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies and is a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution July 12, 2013 "Terrorism at a moment of transition" http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/07/12/terrorism-at-a-moment-of-transition/~~
On targets, jihadists are now pulled in many directions. Many experts contend they
AND
"It needs but one foe to breed a war, not two ..."

Judicial review of detention crushes the war on terror

Wittes 2008 ~Benjamin Wittes is a senior fellow in Governance Studies at The Brookings
AND
20the20Long20War2020Chapter204.pdf~
A broad conception of judicial review in this conflict also suffers from an ¶ unrealistic
AND
combat operations. The public ¶ should find neither reaction an appealing prospect.

Nuclear terrorism breaks the taboo- causes escalation

Bin ’9 (5-22-09 About the Authors  Prof. Li
AND
University, which he  completed in 2009 under Prof. Li Bin. )
The nuclear taboo is a kind of international norm and this type of norm is
AND
problem, avoid miscalculation and  thereby reduce the danger of a nuclear war.
Off

Obama’s pressuring the GOP with a strong display of Presidential strength and staying on message – the GOP will cave

Dovere, 10/1/13 (Edward, Politico, "Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line"
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3-http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3)

President Barack Obama started September in an agonizing, extended display of how little sway
AND
"They don’t suddenly start going the other way as people rethink this."

Having to defend authority derails the current agenda

Kriner 10 Douglas L. Kriner (assistant professor of political science at Boston University) "After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War", University of Chicago Press, Dec 1, 2010, page 68-69.
While congressional support leaves the president’s reserve of political capital intact, congressional criticism saps
AND
to its costs than if Congress stood behind him in the international arena. 

That takes Obama off-message – it undermines his constant pressure on the GOP

Milbank, 9/27/13 – Washington Post Opinion Writer (Dana, "Obama should pivot to Dubya’s playbook" Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-should-try-pivoting-to-george-bushs-playbook/2013/09/27/c72469f0-278a-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html-http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-obama-should-try-pivoting-to-george-bushs-playbook/2013/09/27/c72469f0-278a-11e3-ad0d-b7c8d2a594b9_story.html)

If President Obama can stick to his guns, he will win his October standoff
AND
If he retreats, he will embolden his opponents and demoralize his supporters.

All of his political capital key to dem unity and debt ceiling

Lillis, 9/7/13 (Mike, The Hill, "Fears of wounding Obama weigh heavily on Democrats ahead of vote"
Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/320829-fears-of-wounding-obama-weigh-heavily-on-democrats~~23ixzz2gWiT9H8u 

The prospect of wounding President Obama is weighing heavily on Democratic lawmakers as they decide
AND
through this fiscal thicket. These are going to be very difficult votes."

Failure to quickly raise the debt ceiling ensures collapse of the global economy, U.S. economic leadership, and free trade

Davidson 9/10 
Adam, co-founder of NPR’s "Planet Money," a podcast and blog, "Our Debt to Society", http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0, MCR
If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted again this fall, some serious financial decisions will
AND
free asset more risky, the entire global economy becomes riskier and costlier.

Econ collapse

 extinction====
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center,
AND
and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first
AND
expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Off

By executive order, the President of the United States should commit the Solicitor General 26 White House Counsel’s Office to advance consultation with the Office of Legal Counsel and require written publication of Office of Legal Counsel opinions over current law regarding habeas rights for detainees.  The President should publicly pledge to act consistent with these opinions.

The Office of Legal Counsel should opine that the best interpretation of current law requires the president to no longer enforce the D.C. Circuit ruling in Al-Maqaleh v. Gates.

CP competes on ’authority’ but solves – OLC rulings are binding as settled law, but crafting reduces links to net benefits

Trevor W. Morrison, October 2010 Columbia Law Professor
"STARE DECISIS IN THE OFFICE OF LEGAL COUNSEL," Columbia Law Review, 110 Colum. L. Rev. 1448.
On the other hand, an OLC that says "yes" too often is
AND
is remote and does not meaningfully threaten the effective bindingness of OLC’s decisions.

OLC can resolve WPA questions quickly and effectively

Cornelia Pillard Feb 2005 Supreme Court Inst, G-town U Law, former DOJ Deputy Asst Att Gen
http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub-http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub
Michigan Law Review, 103.4, "The Unfulfilled Promise of the Constitution in Executive Hands", 103 Mich. L. Rev. 676-758
Just as the SG is the federal government’s chief litigator, the head of the
AND
on issues that other lawyers or officials will ultimately resolve for themselves.109
Off

The 1AC’s war powers discourse sanitizes global destruction by proliferating symptom-focused solutions to global power imbalances—-causes cycles of violence that make global warfare and extinction inevitable

Ahmed 11 Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace and Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis, CMR
3. From securitisation to militarisation 3.1 Complicity¶ This analysis thus calls
AND
, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Alternative: vote negative to reject the security discourse of the 1AC.

Critical praxis outweighs policy making- voting affirmative guarantees error replication. Only a radical break from dominant paradigms can avoid becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy

Graeme Cheeseman, Snr. Lecturer @ New South Wales, and Robert Bruce Assoc. Prof in social sciences @ Curtin univ, ’96 (Discourses of Danger 26 Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)
This goal is pursued in ways which are still unconventional in the intellectual milieu of
AND
resistant to them, or choose not to understand them, and why?
SOP Adv

No adventurism

Mandelbaum 2011 (Michael Mandelbaum, A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC; and Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, "CFR 90th Anniversary Series on Renewing America: American Power and Profligacy," Jan 2011)
I think it is, Richard. And I think that this period really goes
AND
as a single unit. And that unit has come to an end.
Social science proves no modeling- US signals are dismissed
Zenko ’13 ~Micah, Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action Douglas Dillon fellow, "The Signal and the Noise," Foreign Policy, 2-2-13, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/the_signal_and_the_noise, accessed 6-12-13, mss~

Later, Gen. Austin observed of cutting forces from the Middle East: "
AND
pronouncements seriously, and instead assume they are made to appease domestic audiences.
We wont start wars just because we can
Brooks 12, Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry
AND
No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51
temptation. For many advocates of retrenchment, the mere possession of peerless, globe
AND
present much more argumentation and evidence to support their pessimism on this subject. 

Imperial presidency isn’t unprecedented- no escalation now

Keating 2013 ~Joshua Keating associate editor at Foreign Policy and editor of the War of Ideas blog. He has worked as a researcher, editorial assistant, and deputy Web editor since joining the FP staff in 2007. May 9, 2013 Foreign Policy "Actually, U.S. presidents have been going to war without Congress since the beginning" http://ideas.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/09/actually_us_presidents_have_been_going_to_war_without_congress_since_the_beginning~~
In the modern era, it’s become increasingly common for presidents to send troops into
AND
since the War of 1812, with nearly 9,000 soldiers involved.

No military capacity – internal capacity to de-escalate overwhelms your links

Steven A. Cook (fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations) Ray Takeyh (fellows at the Council on Foreign Relations) and Suzanne Maloney (senior fellow at Saban Center) June 28 2007 "Why the Iraq war won’t engulf the Mideast", International Herald Tribune
Yet, the Saudis, Iranians, Jordanians, Syrians, and others are very
AND
its civil strife and prevent local conflicts from enveloping the entire Middle East.
Extinction impossible
Gregg Easterbrook (a senior fellow at The New Republic) July 2003 "We’re All Gonna Die21" http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/11.07/doomsday.html?pg=126topic=26topic_set=
Germ warfare21Like chemical agents, biological weapons have never lived up to their
AND
out humanity before, and it seems unlikely to happen in the future.
Even if deliberately selected for lethality – disease wont cause extinction
Mark Leney 1996 (Professor of Biological Anthropology University of Cambridge) http://www.indiana.edu/~~diatom/plextinc.dis
I think that epidemics are a most unlikely expalnation for continent wide extinctions. An
AND
any growth. The disease model just doesn’t wash for the whole continent.
Legitimacy

CO2 not key – scientific consensus against catastrophic warming – doesn’t collapse the environment
Walter Cunningham (United States Marine Corps, National Aeronautics and Space Administration - pilot of Apollo 7, graduate degrees from UCLA in physics and the Harvard Graduate School of Business, member of the Advisory Board for the National Renewable Energy Laboratory) 2010 "Global Warming: Facts versus Faith" The Heartland Institute
More than 31,000 scientists in the United States have signed a petition saying
AND
crop harvests and larger and healthier forests— results environmentalists used to like.

Agreement aren’t going to solve warming

Walsh 2011 ~Bryan Walsh Nov. 29, 2011 "Another Year, Another U.N. Climate-Change Summit: Expect Big Talk in Durban, and Few Results" http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2100430,00.html~
But here’s one prediction I can make without leaving my office: there will be
AND
by 2012 among developed nations while setting up climate aid for developing ones.
International law doesn’t prevent conflict
Cassese 2001 Antonio Cassese, Professor at the University of Florence and member of I’Institut de droit international, 2001 (International Law) pg. 348
Over the years the ’authorization regime’ has evolved along three main lines. First with
AND
2004) (see for instance 9-14), both on Iraq.
International law has no force at all
Paulsen 2009 Michael Stokes Paulsen, Distinguished University Chair and Professor of Law, The University of St.Thomas School of Law ~Yale Law Journal – The Constitutional Power to Interpret International Law~ June 2009
To summarize the argument so far: the Constitution mandates as a matter of U
AND
, international law is simply the continuation of international politics by other means.
No impact - Other nations will still cooperate with the U.S. even if it’s unpopular
Kagan 2006 (Robert, The Washington Post, 1/15, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view26id=1789426prog=zgp26proj=zusr
The striking thing about the present international situation is the degree to which America remains
AND
S. policy in Iraq, is working hard and ostentatiously to improve relations

International system resilient – no conflict

Christopher Preble (director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) August 2010 "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
AND
erupt if the United States were to modestly refocus its efforts, draw down

 its military power, and call on other countries to play a larger role
AND
States while the schlubs in fly-over country pick up the tab.

2NC

Terrorism

2NC Impact Calc (Regular Terrorism)

Even a 1 probability means you vote neg.

Matthew Bunn, Associate Professor of Public Policy at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at the John F. Kennedy School of Government, November 2008, Securing the Bomb 2008, p. 14-15
Even a 1 percent chance over the next ten years would be enough to justify
AND
command—have reduced the risk. But the danger remains very real. 

Our impact is more probable- state on state war is largely obsolete

Hooker 12 ~Colonel Richard D. Hooker, Jr., commands the XVIII Airborne Corps Combat ¶ Support Brigade ("Dragon Brigade") now deployed to Iraq. He commanded an infantry battalion in the 82d Airborne Division and has served as Special Assistant to the ¶ Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with the Office of the Chief of Staff of the Army, as Aide ¶ de Camp to the Secretary of the Army, and with the National Security Council. Colonel ¶ Hooker holds an M.S. in national security studies from the National Defense University ¶ and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Virginia in international relations Winter 2011-12 "Beyond Vom Kriege: The Character and Conduct of Modern War" Strategic Studies Institute http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/2011winter/Hooker2.pdf~~
Modern war, at least as practiced in the West, trades on American and
AND
with civilian populations and cultural sites that hinder the use of standoff weapons.

And, the taboo is critical to prevent nuclear war-it suppresses all other negative DA impacts

Gizewski 1996 (Peter, Senior Associate, Peace and Conflict Studies Programme, University of Toronto, International Journal, Summer, p. 419)
Recognizing that the prohibitionary norm is no cure-all for future nuclear dangers should
AND
globe for over five decades may come to an abrupt and tragic end.

A2: Terrorist Recruiting

Its not a recruiting tool

Joscelyn 2010 ~Thomas Joscelyn is a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.  DEC 27, 2010 Weekly Standard "Gitmo Is Not Al Qaeda’s ’Number One Recruitment Tool’" http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/gitmo-not-al-qaedas-number-one-recruitment-tool_524997.html?page=2~~
President Obama and his surrogates have made this argument before, but they have provided
AND
publicly since January 2009. These messages do not support the president’s claim.

The only goodwill we will get is condolences after attacks

Mukasy 2009 ~Michael B. Mukasy attorney general of the United States from 2007 to 2009, October 19, 2009 Wall Street Journal "Civilian Courts Are No Place to Try Terrorists" http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574475300052267212.html~~
Nevertheless, critics of Guantanamo seem to believe that if we put our vaunted civilian
AND
condolence books. That is the kind of goodwill we can do without.

Any effect would already be realized

Drew 2009 ~Anne Marie Drew teaches English at the US Naval Academy September 11, 2009 "Closing Guantanamo will be a mistake" http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2009/0911/p09s01-coop.html~~
It will be wrong to close these camps, in what can only be a symbolic gesture, simply for the sake of closing them.¶ Whatever moral authority America has lost by its treatment of these detainees will not be regained by moving them. Whatever mistakes we made will not be erased. Closing Gitmo will not make us safer.
Alliances

Alliances and intel sharing are permanent

NYT, 1/30/’13
("Drone Strike Prompts Suit, Raising Fears for U.S. Allies")
The issue is more complex than drone-strike foes suggest, the current and
AND
, however controversial, of many of the most hardened Islamic extremist leaders.

Executive Flexibility Preemption Link

Executive flexibility is key to maintaining preemption

Royal 2011 (John Paul Royal, Institute of World Politics, "War Powers and the Age of Terrorism," Center for the Study of the Presidency 26 Congress The Fellows Review, http://www.thepresidency.org/storage/Fellows2011/Royal-_Final_Paper.pdf)
The international system itself and national security challenges to the United ¶ States in particular
AND
, Congress possesses the intrinsic ¶ power to rescind and limit these powers.

Preemption is key to managing terrorism

Arquilla 2013 ~John Arquilla is professor of defense analysis at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School, author of Insurgents, Raiders, and Bandits: How Masters of Irregular Warfare Have Shaped Our World, and co-editor of Afghan Endgames: Strategy and Policy Choices for America’s Longest War. 8-12-2013 "Last War Standing" Foreign Policy http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/12/last_war_standing_preemptive~~
But all that was then. Since the turn of the millennium and the onset
AND
preemption can be used to reduce the threats that so imperil our world.
Judicial Action Link

Now is a key time to determine future role of the judiciary in regulating terrorism- increased restrictions open the floodgates

Wittes 2008 ~Benjamin Wittes is a senior fellow in Governance Studies at The Brookings
AND
20the20Long20War2020Chapter204.pdf~
Before turning to competing visions of what judicial review in this area ¶ ought to
AND
in the short term. It has not actually pulled the trigger. ¶ 

Assertion of judicial power over the executive collapses the war on terror

Wittes 2008 ~Benjamin Wittes is a senior fellow in Governance Studies at The Brookings
AND
20the20Long20War2020Chapter204.pdf~
But then there’s the tectonic level, where the impact of the decisions is akin
AND
¶ even more extreme than the top-level beating the press understood.

Terrorism Acquisition

Mueller is wrong

Allison 2007 Graham Allison, Director – Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Professor of Government, and Faculty Chair of the Dubai Initiative – Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, "Symposium: Apocalypse When?", The National Interest, November / December 2007, Lexis
MUELLER IS entitled to his opinion that the threat of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism
AND
target, remember: They could hide it in a bale of marijuana.

Nuclear terror is inevitable

Jaspal 2012 (Zafar Nawaz Jaspal, Associate Professor at the School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan "Nuclear/Radiological Terrorism: Myth or Reality?", Journal of Political Studies, Vol. 19, Issue - 1, 2012, 91:111)
The misperception, miscalculation and above all ignorance of the ruling elite about security puzzles
AND
the possibility that terrorist groups could acquire fissile material from the rogue states. 

SOP

Bioweaps

Delivery is impossible – most likely methods ensure only a 5 risk

Stimson Center 2005 (Henry L. Stimson Center, Frequently Asked Questions: Likelihood of Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons, http://www.stimson.org/cwc/terror.htm)
Terrorists cannot count on just filling the delivery system with agent, pointing the device
AND
undergo mechanical stresses that can kill 95 percent or more of the microorganisms.

History is on our side - 96 of the time it only kills 3 or less people

Stimson Center 2005 (Henry L. Stimson Center, Frequently Asked Questions: Likelihood of Terrorists Acquiring and Using Chemical or Biological Weapons, http://www.stimson.org/cwc/terror.htm)
The Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo was brimming with highly educated scientists, yet the cult’s
AND
been used since 1975, three or fewer people were injured or killed.

Simple environmental factors ensure an attack fails

Laqueur 1999 (Walter- Cochairman, International Research Council, The Center for Strategic and International Studies, The New Terrorism, pg. 244)
Ironically, the major factor retarding the use of gases and germs by states and
AND
with regard to terrorists may also be true with regard to state terrorism.
ME War

Prefer our literature base – theirs overinflates threats about the outbreak of conflict

Edward Luttwak (CSIS senior associate and has served as a consultant to the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the National Security Council, the U.S. Department of State, the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force, and a number of allied governments as well as international corporations and financial institutions) May 2007 "The middle of nowhere" http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/2007/05/themiddleofnowhere/
Why are middle east experts so unfailingly wrong? The lesson of history is that
AND
about as many as are killed in a season of conflict in Darfur.

Legit

Warming

Local solutions solve better than international agreements

Walsh 2011 ~Bryan Walsh Nov. 29, 2011 "Another Year, Another U.N. Climate-Change Summit: Expect Big Talk in Durban, and Few Results" http://content.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,2100430,00.html~
So if not the U.N. system, then what should we do
AND
isn’t standing still on climate and energy, even as international negotiations flounder.

Treaties are not key to solve warming- countries are solving it on their own

Economist 2013 ~The Economist 1-19-2013 "Beginning at home" http://www.economist.com/news/international/21569691-domestic-laws-not-global-treaty-are-way-fight-global-warming-beginning-home~~
GOVERNMENTS like to cite external constraints—such as meeting the conditions for an international
AND
of years of green activism that has pushed for a global treaty first.

MPX D
No credible state based threats
Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former special assistant to President Reagan) January 2010 "Military Spending — For What?" http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11143
The United States dominates the globe militarily. The threats facing America pale compared to
AND
globe’s strongest and most sophisticated military — one well able to defend Americans.

1NR

Add-On

The Aff is neither necessary nor sufficient—- some court involvement is inevitable the plan doesn’t implicate the economy—- their evidence is very generic—- no way the plan is enough to save the economy if it’s collapsing now nor enough to collapse it if it’s high now

Court independence is extremely resilient

Gibson 2012 (James L. Gibson, Sidney W. Souers Professor of Government, Department of Political Science, Professor of African and African American Studies, Director, Program on Citizenship and Democratic Values Weidenbaum Center on the Economy, Government, and Public Policy, Washington University in STL, February 27, 2012, Countermajoritarian Conference, University of Texas Law School, pdf)
Political scientists and legal scholars continue to be obsessed with the so-called countermajoritarian
AND
the Court might do would imperil its basic support among the American people.

A2 PDB

Morrison ev = mutually exclusive bc OLC isn’t binding if the courts get involved

Perm links to circumvention CP does not

Harvard Law Review 2012 (Unsigned)
Presidential Power and the Office of Legal Counsel, 125 Harv. L. Rev. 2090
The President relies on OLC to issue written opinions that explain the bounds of his
AND
whether public opinion will have a similar impact in the context of OLC.

CP alone is key to executive constitutionalism

Cornelia Pillard Feb 2005 Supreme Court Inst, G-town U Law, former DOJ Deputy Asst Att Gen
http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub-http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub
Michigan Law Review, 103.4, "The Unfulfilled Promise of the Constitution in Executive Hands", 103 Mich. L. Rev. 676-758
V. ENABLING EXECUTIVE CONSTITUTIONALISM The courts indisputably do not and cannot fully assure our
AND
constitutional rights is part of the executive’s interest, not counter to it.
2NC Compliance

Presidential pledge assures compliance

Harvard Law Review 2012 (Unsigned)
Presidential Power and the Office of Legal Counsel, 125 Harv. L. Rev. 2090
As Professor Richard Pildes points out in his critique of their book, though,
AND
times of need, to determine the meaning of the law for himself.

Disclosure checks the advantages

Peter Marguiles 5-15-12 Roger Williams U Law Prof
http://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=137026context=plr-http://digitalcommons.pepperdine.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=137026context=plr Pepperdine Law Review, Volume 39, Issue 4, Article 1, "Reforming Lawyers into Irrelevance?: Reconciling Crisis and Constraint at the Office of Legal Counsel",)

1. Disclosure Disclosure is an important deliberative safeguard. From an ex ante perspective
   AND
   express findings that become part of an opinion, when such circumstances prevail.

The CP includes the SG – united fronts solve

Cornelia Pillard Feb 2005 Supreme Court Inst, G-town U Law, former DOJ Deputy Asst Att Gen
http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub-http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=119026context=facpub
Michigan Law Review, 103.4, "The Unfulfilled Promise of the Constitution in Executive Hands", 103 Mich. L. Rev. 676-758
One such difference is that all of the OLC deputies are politically appointed, whereas
AND
readily questioned as idiosyncratic, may enhance OLC’s authority with its clients.125

WHCO assures compliance – best actual check on the president

Maryanne Borrelli 2k - Connecticut College IR Professor (International Relations)
Also  Karen Hult, Nancy Kassop, "The White House Counsel’s Office", http://whitehousetransitionproject.org/files/counsel/Counsel-OD.PDF
The White House Counsel’s Office is at the hub of all presidential activity. Its
AND
a course of presidential action. Lloyd Cutler described how this process works:
Courts Key Dog

The CP garners the benefits of Congressional 26 Judicial involvement while avoiding the DA’s – keeping authority with the president is the key

James Baker, 2007 - Former Special Assistant to the President 26 Legal Advisor to NSC
Chief Judge, United States Court of Appeals for the Armed Forces IN THE COMMON DEFENSE: NATIONAL SECURITY LAW FOR PERILOUS TIMES, p. 25-27
Understanding process also entails an appreciation as to how to effectively engage the constitutional process
AND
this means the meaningful and transparent participation of the Congress and the courts.

Executive action solves best – nations respond to behavior not legal standards

Roberts 13 (Kristin, When the Whole World Has Drones, National Journal, 21 March 2013, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/when-the-whole-world-has-drones-20130321, da 8-1-13) PC
But even without raising standards, tightening up drone-specific restrictions in the standing
AND
operations manual for other nations but a legal and moral one as well.

Executive constitutionalism solves the aff, key to robust democracy

Pillard 2005 – JD from Harvard, Faculty Director of Supreme Court Institute at Georgetown University Law Center, former Deputy Assistant Attorney General in the DOJ (February, Cornelia T., Michigan Law Review, 103.4, "The Unfulfilled Promise of the Constitution in Executive Hands", 103 Mich. L. Rev. 676-758, http://scholarship.law.georgetown.edu/facpub/189/)
*NOTE: SG = Solicitor General; OLC = Office of Legal Counsel
The executive, in my view, has failed fully to meet the challenges of
AND
institutionally versatile way of keeping the American polity true to its best self.

Extinction 26 linear access to all impacts

G John Ikenberry 1999 U Penn Political Science Prof
"Why Export Democracy"  Wilson Quarterly, Spring
We led the struggle for democracy because the larger the pool of democracies, the
AND
the nuclear threat; combating terrorism and organized crime; overcoming environmental degradation.

2NR

Latest IAEA assessment concludes the risk is underestimated

Sturdee 2013 (Simon Sturdee, AFP reporter, July 1, 2013, "UN atomic agency sounds warning on ’nuclear terrorism’," Fox News, http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/07/01/un-atomic-agency-sounds-warning-on-nuclear-terrorism/~~23ixzz2dsmqwOk3)
The head of the UN atomic agency warned Monday against complacency in preventing "nuclear
AND
," Michelle Cann, co-author of the report, told AFP.

Rd 6 v Wayne JS

1NC

Off

Restrictions impose limits on action- regulations merely manage practices associated

Schackleford 17 J. is a justice of the Supreme Court of Florida. "Atlantic Coast Line Railroad Company, a corporation, et al., Plaintiff in Error, v. The State of Florida, Defendant in Error," 73 Fla. 609; 74 So. 595; 1917 Fla., Lexis
There would seem to be no occasion to discuss whether or not the Railroad Commissioners
AND
failure to comply with the order for the erection of a union depot.

Vote negative-

Limits- there are infinite ways the Congress could implement oversight policies over the areas of the topic- the permutations of the composition of the drone court etc are enormous and prevent negative preparation

Bidirectionality- allowing oversight affs allows actual increases in executive action in topical areas- for example the aff could argue that the drone court actually would increase the number of acceptable targets for targeted killing

Precision-Lexicography is key to understanding the resolution

Dash No Date ~Nilardi Sekhar Dash Linguistic Research Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, worked in the area of corpus linguistics and language technology for more than 15 years No Date "Linguistics- The Art of Lexicography" Encyclopedia of Life Support Systems http://www.eolss.net/Sample-Chapters/C04/E6-91-16.pdf~~
Lexicography also studies lexicon but from a different angle. While lexicology concentrate on the
AND
a better way or checking correct spellings and pronunciations of words, etc. 

Off

The United States Congress should require a declaration of war that is consistent with jus ad bellum principles of self-defense under international law for any decision to use or deploy conventional military forces against a nation-state in circumstances likely to lead to an armed attack.

Congress should define "armed attack" as: The use of force of a magnitude that is likely to produce serious consequences, epitomized by territorial intrusions, human casualties, or considerable destruction of property.

Congress should allow an exception in the event of an armed attack against the United States, or its allies, or other such national security emergency making prior approval impractical.  Congress should require immediate notice of such a determination, and shall require approval within 14 days.

The CP is a PIC out of nuclear armed forces the net benefit is primacy

Nuclear primacy now

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
Since 2006, we have discussed these issues with many nuclear analysts, ¶ US
AND
long-range precision strike, in addition ¶ to nuclear strike capabilities.

Congressional oversight is bad for nuclear primacy- lack of experience means they would be poorly suited to decide what happens in a conflict

Schwartz 2008 ~Stephen I. Schwartz Monterey Institute of International Studies Oct. 1, 2008 "Congressional Oversight of U.S. Nuclear Weapons" NTI http://www.nti.org/analysis/articles/congressional-oversight-nuclear-weapons/~~
Even as members of Congress continue to recognize their oversight shortcomings, little has changed
AND
not on the policies use to justify the spending programs in those budgets.

Inevitable conventional conflicts are coming with nuclear armed adversaries- nuclear primacy is key to contain those conflicts

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
A second set of arguments stems from the problem of nuclear escalation and the future
AND
proceed without a full ¶ suite of modern nuclear and nonnuclear counterforce capabilities. 

Off

Obama’s pressuring the GOP with a strong display of Presidential strength and staying on message – the GOP will cave

Dovere, 10/1/13 (Edward, Politico, "Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line"
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3-http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3)

President Barack Obama started September in an agonizing, extended display of how little sway
AND
"They don’t suddenly start going the other way as people rethink this."

Having to defend authority derails the current agenda

Kriner 10 Douglas L. Kriner (assistant professor of political science at Boston University) "After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War", University of Chicago Press, Dec 1, 2010, page 68-69.
While congressional support leaves the president’s reserve of political capital intact, congressional criticism saps
AND
to its costs than if Congress stood behind him in the international arena. 

Failure to quickly raise the debt ceiling ensures collapse of the global economy, U.S. economic leadership, and free trade

Davidson 9/10 
Adam, co-founder of NPR’s "Planet Money," a podcast and blog, "Our Debt to Society", http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0, MCR
If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted again this fall, some serious financial decisions will
AND
free asset more risky, the entire global economy becomes riskier and costlier.

Econ collapse

 extinction====
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center,
AND
and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first
AND
expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.

Off

The affirmatives drive to make US warfighting more credible is a strategic pathology that turns the aff- ensures serial policy failure

Fettweis 2010 (Christopher J. Fettweis, assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland’s Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame, 2010 "Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy" April 2010 Survival, 52:2, 59 – 82)
For individuals as well as states, pathologies – mistaken or incorrect beliefs that inspire
AND
military action, no matter how small the issue or large the odds. 

The alternative is to reject the aff’s drive for credibility- their methodological justification shapes implementation of the aff in ways that gut solvency and justify violence

Fettweis 2004 (Christopher J. Fettweis, assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland’s Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame, December 2004, "Resolute Eagle or Paper Tiger?," http://goo.gl/xcXou)
A policy recommendation follows fairly logically from the propositions outlined above: Policymakers are wise
AND
Doing otherwise will likely prove fruitless at best, and counterproductive at worst. 

1

Observation 1-

Congress cant check use of force

Douglas Kriner, Assistant Profess of Political Science at Boston University, 2010, After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War, p. 6-8

The role that Congress plays in deciding whether a war is continued or concluded is
AND
response. Certainly, more empirical analysis is needed to answer this question.

Groupthink theory is wrong

Anthony Hempell 4, User Experience Consulting Senior Information Architect, "Groupthink:  An introduction to Janis’ theory of concurrence-seeking tendencies in group work., http://www.anthonyhempell.com/papers/groupthink/-http://www.anthonyhempell.com/papers/groupthink/, March 3
In the thirty years since Janis first proposed the groupthink model, there is still
AND
1986, p. 399; cited by Choi 26 Kim, 1999).
Observation 3-
No impact - Other nations will still cooperate with the U.S. even if it’s unpopular
Kagan 2006 (Robert, The Washington Post, 1/15, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view26id=1789426prog=zgp26proj=zusr
The striking thing about the present international situation is the degree to which America remains
AND
S. policy in Iraq, is working hard and ostentatiously to improve relations

International system resilient – no conflict

Christopher Preble (director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) August 2010 "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
AND
erupt if the United States were to modestly refocus its efforts, draw down
 its military power, and call on other countries to play a larger role
AND
States while the schlubs in fly-over country pick up the tab.
Empirically proven
Christopher J. Fettweis (Professor of national security affairs @ U.S. Naval War College) 2010 "Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy," Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 April 2010 , pages 59 – 82
One potential explanation for the growth of global peace can be dismissed fairly quickly:
AND
to reach the conclusion that world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.

The commons won’t break down

Preble, 10 (8/3/10 Christopher Preble, director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, taught history at St. Cloud State University and Temple University, was a commissioned officer in the U.S. Navy, Ph.D. in history from Temple University. "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" 8/3/10) http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/ 

Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
AND
in their own defense, and in the security of their respective regions.

Their laundry list of vague impacts is academic junk – conflicts can’t just emerge

Fettweis, 11
Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO

Assertions that without the combination of U.S. capabilities, presence and commitments
AND
keeping the peace? With one exception, these questions are rarely addressed.
That exception is in the Pacific Rim. Some analysts fear that a de facto
AND
dangers contained in the terrestrial security environment are less severe than ever before.
Believers in the pacifying power of hegemony ought to keep in mind a rather basic tenet: When it comes to policymaking, specific threats are more significant than vague, unnamed dangers. Without specific risks, it is just as plausible to interpret U.S. presence as redundant, as overseeing a peace that has already arrived. Strategy should not be based upon vague images emerging from the dark reaches of the neoconservative imagination.
Overestimating Our Importance
One of the most basic insights of cognitive psychology provides the final reason to doubt
AND
, the most obvious and parsimonious explanation is that he was responsible."57
It is natural, therefore, for U.S. policymakers and strategists to
AND
S. hegemony in contributing to international stability is therefore almost certainly overrated.
In the end, one can never be sure why our major allies have not
AND
their security is all but assured, with or without the United States.

2

Imperial presidency isn’t unprecedented- no escalation now

Keating 2013 ~Joshua Keating associate editor at Foreign Policy and editor of the War of Ideas blog. He has worked as a researcher, editorial assistant, and deputy Web editor since joining the FP staff in 2007. May 9, 2013 Foreign Policy "Actually, U.S. presidents have been going to war without Congress since the beginning" http://ideas.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/05/09/actually_us_presidents_have_been_going_to_war_without_congress_since_the_beginning~~
In the modern era, it’s become increasingly common for presidents to send troops into
AND
since the War of 1812, with nearly 9,000 soldiers involved.
We wont start wars just because we can
Brooks 12, Stephen, Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, John Ikenberry
AND
No. 3 (Winter 2012/13), pp. 7–51
temptation. For many advocates of retrenchment, the mere possession of peerless, globe
AND
present much more argumentation and evidence to support their pessimism on this subject. 

Recent examples and global trends prove

Fettweis 2004 (Christopher J. Fettweis, assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland’s Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame, August 2010, "The Remnants of Honor: Pathology, Credibility and U.S. Foreign Policy," conference paper for the 2010 American Political Science Association meeting, online)
Credibility has not proven to be much more useful in addressing post-Cold War
AND
national embarrassment" at the docks of Port-au-Prince.88

Their authors overstate the necessity of credibility

Fettweis 2008 (Christopher J. Fettweis, assistant professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, Ph.D. University of Maryland’s Department of Government and Politics, University of Notre Dame, "Credibility and the War on Terror," Political Science Quarterly, EBSCO Host)
The second observation on the use of  the credibility imperative in policy debate is perhaps
AND
, even the smallest of slips can lead to large-scale disaster. 

2NC

2NC Perm do the CP

Competition for this is a slam dunk the way they defined armed attack in the 1ac means that they would obviously prohibit nuclear usage

use of force of a magnitude that is likely to produce serious consequences, epitomized by territorial intrusions, human casualties, or considerable destruction of property. 

Armed forces include nuclear

Quester 2006 (George H. Quester, Visiting Professor of International Affairs at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of Government, "Nuclear First Strike: Consequences of a Broken Taboo," gbooks)
Weapons systems of various sorts are proliferating worldwide, and much may depend on what
AND
weapons must also include those involving such action by United States armed forces.
Primacy NB Overview

US nuclear primacy prevents crises from escalating or happening in the first place

Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania July August 2007 "Superiority Complex" The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200707/china-nukes
How do America’s growing counterforce capabilities affect this scenario? First, American nuclear primacy
AND
States would act decisively if China put its vulnerable nuclear arsenal on alert.   

Allows wars to stay at the conventional level even if they start

Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania China Security, Winter 2007, pp.66 - 89 2007 World Security Institute http://www.chinasecurity.us/index.php?option=com_content26view=article26id=189
Third, the growth of U.S. nuclear counterforce capabilities may give U
AND
sideline and keep their conflicts with the United States at the conventional level.
Turns Case

Nuclear primacy is key to grand strategic primacy-allows coercive leverage

David S. McDonough is a PhD candidate in political science and a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University, as well as a recipient of the SSHRC Canadian Graduate Scholarship and an Honourary Killam Scholarship for 2008/2009. He was Chair of the CIC Study Group on Nuclear Strategy "Tailored Deterrence: The ’New Triad’ and the Tailoring of Nuclear Superiority" March 2009 Canadian International Council Strategic Datalink No. 8
The Bush administration’s nuclear revisions are being tailored to maximize its ability to undertake military
AND
that more serious geostrategic competition does indeed return to the international system.11 

Nuclear primacy is the only effective method of deterrence

Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Correspondence The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy? International Security 31.3 (2007) 174-193  
More research on the threshold for nuclear deterrence is needed,15 but a substantial
AND
to survive and destroy several U.S. cities in response.17   

UQ 2NC

Nuclear primacy now- insiders confirm

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
Some critics argue that the United States is not seeking strategic primacy. They reject
AND
sounds more malicious) are ¶ simply two phrases describing the same behavior.

Even though we have had cuts the trend has kept our strategic arsenal strong

Huessy 2013 ~Peter Huessy is President of GeoStrategic Analysis of Potomac, Maryland , a defense and national security consulting firm February 13, 2013 "Nuclear Deterrence: The Search for Nuclear Stability or Nuclear Primacy?" http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/nuclear-deterrence-the-search-for-nuclear-stability-or-nuclear-primacy~~
There is a grave danger in trying to support deterrence "on the cheap"
AND
the part of a nuclear armed power becomes more rather than less likely. 

Link 2NC

The aff is NFU21

Ullman 1972 (Richard Ullman, July 1972, Professor of International Relations @ Princeton University, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 50 Issue 4, "NO FIRST USE OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS," Ebsco)
An alternative to a fiat "no-first-use" declaration, at
AND
nuclear weapon in a manner which inflicts no damage but nevertheless conveys resolve.

First use is key to coercive primacy

Thayer 2012 ~Bradley A. Thayer served as a consultant to the Department of Defense and is professor of political science at Baylor University. February 17, 2012 Washington Times "Preserving our nuclear deterrence" http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/17/preserving-our-nuclear-deterrence/~~
Nuclear weapons aid Uncle Sam’s ability to coerce opponents as well for three reasons.
AND
attack and to signal the risk of escalating violence to a higher level.

A2: Ineffective

Nuclear weapons are key- conventional weapons cannot solve

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
A second criticism is that retaining (or improving) specific US nuclear ¶ weapons
AND
still a ¶ sizable gap between what nuclear and conventional weapons can accomplish.

Key to Coercive Leverage

Nuclear primacy increases coercive leverage- strengthens resolve- history proves

Kroenig 2013 ~Matthew Kroenig is Assistant Professor of Government at Georgetown University "Nuclear Superiority and the Balance of Resolve: Explaining Nuclear Crisis Outcomes" International Organization / Volume 67 / Issue 01 / January 2013, pp 141-171~
Indeed, there is evidence to suggest that nuclear superiority has encouraged policymakers to escalate
AND
cognizant of their nuclear inferiority and that this may have encouraged them to withdraw 

the missiles from Cuba. Following the crisis, Vasili Kuznetzov, first deputy minister
AND
victory in a crisis. This logic brings us to our first hypothesis.

Alliances

Primacy is key to extended deterrence credibility

Ross, Douglas Alan professor of political science at Simon Fraser University "Nuclear weapons and American grand strategy"  International Journal, Autumn 2008 http://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=Ross,20Douglas20Alan26tag=content;col1
American nuclear hawks see such questions as Utopian. For them, only a grand
AND
internationally networked ABM defences is essential to backstop such offensive nuclear strike capacity.

Alliances and intel sharing are permanent

NYT, 1/30/’13
("Drone Strike Prompts Suit, Raising Fears for U.S. Allies")
The issue is more complex than drone-strike foes suggest, the current and
AND
, however controversial, of many of the most hardened Islamic extremist leaders.

I-Law No Solve

Realism means I-law doesn’t matter

William Bradford Associate Professor of Law Indiana University School of Law Arizona State Law Journal Winter, 2004 "In the Minds of Men*: A Theory of Compliance with the Laws of War" 36 Ariz. St. L.J. 1243 lexis
Realism assumes that the international system is immutably anarchic, that states will always be
AND
agreements into which states enter will be carefully and purposefully limited to peripheral matters 

that do not implicate their power or meaningfully limit their autonomy. 50 Moreover,
AND
the assertion of power rather than of the power of a universal norm. 

1NR

A2 W/M

We meet:

Requiring congressional approval restricts

Zeidenstein ’78, HARVEY G. ZEIDENSTEIN is professor of political science at Illinois State University. He is the¶ author of Direct Election of the President and articles on the presidency, nominations, and elections. Political Science Quarterly Volume 93 Number 3 Fall 1978, The Reassertiono f Congressional¶ Power: New Curbs on the President, Lexis, jj
Through a variety of measures, Congress has increased its ability to restrict presidential actions and to hold the president and the executive branch more¶ accountable to itself by allowing for formal congressional disapproval in some instances, requiring to be provided with critical information in others, and¶ mandating that certain presidential initiatives cease automatically in other cases¶ in the absence of congressional action to affirmatively approve those initiatives.

Restrict presidential actions not the same as restricting his authority—- Congress could "restrict" his actions by mandating intervention—- their "congressional disapproval" which illustrates that it could forces his hand by disapproving of his non-use of his authority

1. This illustrates their imprecise use of the term—- "restrict" is used interchangeably in the literature with regulation—- links to our precision DA

And, it’s a prohibition

Center for Constitutional Rights 2009, not credence, Restore. Protect. Expand. Amend the War Powers Resolution, http://ccrjustice.org/files/CCR_White_WarPowers.pdf-http://ccrjustice.org/files/CCR_White_WarPowers.pdf, jj

The War Powers Resolution should explicitly prohibit executive acts of war without previous ¶ Congressional authorization. The only exception should be the executive’s power in an emergency ¶ to use short-term force to repel sudden attacks on US territories, troops or citizens.

1. It’s not a prohibition—- their evidence says it "prohibits" if he doesn’t have Congressional authorization—- that caveat demonstrates that they don’t truly restrict
   A2 C/I

Counter-interp:

Restriction means a limit and includes conditions on action

CAA 8,COURT OF APPEALS OF ARIZONA, DIVISION ONE, DEPARTMENT A, STATE OF ARIZONA, Appellee, v. JEREMY RAY WAGNER, Appellant., 2008 Ariz. App. Unpub. LEXIS 613
P10 The term "restriction" is not defined by the Legislature for the purposes
AND
natural and obvious meaning, which may be discerned from its dictionary definition.").
P11 The dictionary definition of "restriction" is "~a~ limitation or qualification
AND
dictate that the term "restriction" includes the ignition interlock device limitation.

The top of their C/I card says: In the absence of a statutory definition of a term, we look to ordinary dictionary definitions and do not construe the word as being a term of art. 

We are impact turning this—- Restrict IS a term of art.
2NC Precision Impact

Precision Impacts Outweigh

Stanley Fish, dean of the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences at the University of Illinois at Chicago, June 21, 2002. "Say It Ain’t So," THE CHRONICLE, http://chronicle.com/article/Say-It-Ain-t-So/46137
Well, actually everyone knows what’s going on. The art of speaking and writing
AND
your written language and reaching the conclusions dictated and generated by those patterns. 

Causes conflation in policy—"infringement", "limitation" and "denial" all become topical—prevents analysis of war powers

Eric Heinze 3 (Senior Lecturer in Law, University of London, Queen Mary. He has held fellowships from the Fulbright Foundation and the French and German governments. He teaches Legal Theory, Constitutional Law, Human Rights and Public International Law. JD Harvard) "The Logic of Liberal Rights A study in the formal analysis of legal discourse" http://mey.homelinux.org/companions/Eric20Heinze/The20Logic20of20Liberal20Rights_20A20Study20in20202883929/The20Logic20of20Liberal20Rights_20A20Study20in2020-20Eric20Heinze.pdf
Variety of ’restrictions’
The term ’restriction’, defined so broadly, embraces any number of familiar concepts
AND
of a formal model, for which any distinctions among them are irrelevant.

Lexicography key to standardization

Nweke No Date ~JOSHUA AZUBUIKE NWEKE, Ph.D.¶ Department of Linguistics and African Languages¶ University of Benin,¶ Benin City. "Lexicography: An Indispensable Document for Language Standardization" http://www.wesoeduonline.com/journals/the20intuition/Lexicography20An20Indispensable20Document20for20Language.pdf~~
Since this paper has discussed in details the usefulness of dictionary not only as ¶
AND
application of lexicography in any field of study ¶ in the university system.¶ 

2NC Limits DA

Tons of ways for Congress to oversee the executive

Triebwasser No Date ~Dr. Marc A Triebwasser, a Political Science Professor at Central Connecticut University No Date "Congressional Oversight" http://www.polisci.ccsu.edu/trieb/Cong-8.html~~
In order to gain some control over the operations of the various agencies which had
AND
Code which is developed by the Internal Revenue Service, an executive agency.

Literally doubles the educational benefit

Arrington 2009 (Rebecca, UVA Today, "Study Finds That Students Benefit From Depth, Rather Than Breadth, in High School Science Courses" March 4)
A recent study reports that high school students who study fewer science topics, but
AND
impacted twice as much as those in courses that touched on every major topic

Turns their offense—limits are vital to creativity and innovation

David Intrator (President of The Creative Organization) October 21, 2010 "Thinking Inside the Box," http://www.trainingmag.com/article/thinking-inside-box
One of the most pernicious myths about creativity, one that seriously inhibits creative thinking
AND
simply don’t fit into the rules you’re creating as you build your box.

2NC Reasonability

Reasonability is impossible – it’s arbitrary and undermines research and preparation

Resnick, assistant professor of political science – Yeshiva University, ’1
(Evan, "Defining Engagement," Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 54, Iss. 2)
In matters of national security, establishing a clear definition of terms is a precondition
AND
"engagement," they undermine the ability to build an effective foreign policy.

Rd 8 Neg v Mich St CZ

Off

Obama’s pressuring the GOP with a strong display of Presidential strength and staying on message – the GOP will cave

Dovere, 10/1/13 (Edward, Politico, "Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line"
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3-http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3)

President Barack Obama started September in an agonizing, extended display of how little sway
AND
"They don’t suddenly start going the other way as people rethink this."

Having to defend authority derails the current agenda

Kriner 10 Douglas L. Kriner (assistant professor of political science at Boston University) "After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War", University of Chicago Press, Dec 1, 2010, page 68-69.
While congressional support leaves the president’s reserve of political capital intact, congressional criticism saps
AND
to its costs than if Congress stood behind him in the international arena. 

Failure to quickly raise the debt ceiling ensures collapse of the global economy, U.S. economic leadership, and free trade

Davidson 9/10 
Adam, co-founder of NPR’s "Planet Money," a podcast and blog, "Our Debt to Society", http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0, MCR
If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted again this fall, some serious financial decisions will
AND
free asset more risky, the entire global economy becomes riskier and costlier.

Econ collapse

 extinction====
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center,
AND
and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4

The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first
AND
expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Off

By executive order, the President of the United States should commit the Solicitor General 26 White House Counsel’s Office to advance consultation with the Office of Legal Counsel and require written publication of Office of Legal Counsel opinions over current law regarding the necessity of legislative authorization prior to initiating offensive military use of force. The President should publicly pledge to act consistent with these opinions. 

The Office of Legal Counsel should opine that the best interpretation of current law requires legislative authorization prior to initiating offensive military use of force, unless to repel attacks on the United States.

CP competes on ’authority’ but solves – OLC rulings are binding as settled law, but crafting reduces links to net benefits
Trevor W. Morrison, October 2010 Columbia Law Professor
"STARE DECISIS IN THE OFFICE OF LEGAL COUNSEL," Columbia Law Review, 110 Colum. L. Rev. 1448.
On the other hand, an OLC that says "yes" too often is
AND
is remote and does not meaningfully threaten the effective bindingness of OLC’s decisions.

Off

The 1AC’s war powers discourse sanitizes global destruction by proliferating symptom-focused solutions to global power imbalances—-causes cycles of violence that make global warfare and extinction inevitable

Ahmed 11 Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace and Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis, CMR
3. From securitisation to militarisation 3.1 Complicity¶ This analysis thus calls
AND
, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Alternative: vote negative to reject the security discourse of the 1AC.

Critical praxis outweighs policy making- voting affirmative guarantees error replication. Only a radical break from dominant paradigms can avoid becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy

Graeme Cheeseman, Snr. Lecturer @ New South Wales, and Robert Bruce Assoc. Prof in social sciences @ Curtin univ, ’96 (Discourses of Danger 26 Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)
This goal is pursued in ways which are still unconventional in the intellectual milieu of
AND
resistant to them, or choose not to understand them, and why?
R2P

No RTP- no appetite for nation building

Mandelbaum 2011 (Michael Mandelbaum, A. Herter Professor of American Foreign Policy, the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, Washington DC; and Director, Project on East-West Relations, Council on Foreign Relations, "CFR 90th Anniversary Series on Renewing America: American Power and Profligacy," Jan 2011)
I think it is, Richard. And I think that this period really goes
AND
as a single unit. And that unit has come to an end.

No impact - Other nations will still cooperate with the U.S. even if it’s unpopular

Kagan 2006 (Robert, The Washington Post, 1/15, http://www.carnegieendowment.org/publications/index.cfm?fa=view26id=1789426prog=zgp26proj=zusr
The striking thing about the present international situation is the degree to which America remains
AND
S. policy in Iraq, is working hard and ostentatiously to improve relations

Many, many alt causes to rising food prices

IMF in ’8 (International Monetary Fund, "Impact of High Food and Fuel Prices on Developing Countries—Frequently Asked Questions", Last Updated 4-11, http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/ffpfaqs.htm)
Q. Why is this happening?    A. Prices have been propelled by a
AND
market instruments to higher-yielding assets such as commodity-indexed funds.

High oil prices make food spikes inevitable

Brown in ’8 (Lester, President of the Earth Policy Institute, "Plan B 3.0: Mobilizing to Save Civilization", http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/PB3/pb3ch2.pdf)
Modern agriculture depends heavily on the use of fossil fuels. Most tractors use gasoline
AND
when oil was cheap will not survive as it is now structured.36

No resource wars

Idean Salehyan (Professor of Political Science at the University of North Texas) May 2008 "From Climate Change to Conflict? No Consensus Yet*" Journal of Peace Research, vol. 45, no. 3 http://emergingsustainability.org/files/resolver20climate20change20and20conflict.pdf
First, the deterministic view has poor predictive power as to where and when conflicts
AND
livelihoods. Political sensitivity to peaceful action can immunize states from armed insurrection.

Warfighting Adv

4GW is the most accurate description of modern war- escalation is likely if uncontained- executive authority is key to counter these threats

Li 2009 ~Zheyoa Li Winter, 2009 The Georgetown Journal of Law Public Policy 7 Geo. J.L. 26 Pub. Pol’y 373 "War Powers for the Fourth Generation: Constitutional Interpretation in the Age of Asymmetric Warfare" lexis~
Even as the quantity of nation-states in the world has increased dramatically since
AND
wide proliferation of easily deployable weapons of mass destruction, nuclear and otherwise.

Most likely nuclear escalation

Richards 2005 (Dr. Chet Richards, J. Addams 26 Partners July 12, 2005, "Dear Mr. 26 Ms. 1RP: Welcome to the 21st Century" http://www.zmetro.com/pdf/2005/07/welcome_21st_century_v4.pdf)
Beginning with Mao Tse-Tung, and continuing to the present day, insurgency
AND
is worth any backlash from the scenes of horror and brutality that ensue.

Signaling effects and cred don’t matter in modern war

Nzelibe and Yoo 2006 ~Jide Nzelibe is Assistant Professor of Law, Northwestern University Law School. ¶ John Yoo is Professor of Law, University of California at Berkeley School of Law (Boalt Hall), ¶ and Visiting Scholar, American Enterprise Institute 2006 Yale Law Journal "Rational War and Constitutional Design" http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/115-9/Nzelibe.pdf~~
The non-cooperative bargaining model of international conflict assumes ¶ that the actors of
AND
congressional consent cannot be ¶ obtained in time to act on the intelligence. 

International system resilient – no conflict

Christopher Preble (director of foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute) August 2010 "U.S. Military Power: Preeminence for What Purpose?" http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/u-s-military-power-preeminence-for-what-purpose/
Most in Washington still embraces the notion that America is, and forever will be
AND
States while the schlubs in fly-over country pick up the tab.

SOP Adv
Social science proves no modeling- US signals are dismissed
Zenko ’13 ~Micah, Council on Foreign Relations Center for Preventive Action Douglas Dillon fellow, "The Signal and the Noise," Foreign Policy, 2-2-13, www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/02/20/the_signal_and_the_noise, accessed 6-12-13, mss~

Later, Gen. Austin observed of cutting forces from the Middle East: "
AND
pronouncements seriously, and instead assume they are made to appease domestic audiences.

The US can no longer effectively use human rights leadership—world is now more critical of America’s own violations

Mark Weisbrot is co-director of the Centre for Economic and Policy Research, in Washington, DC, "Who is America to judge?" Guardian, March 11, 2009, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2009/mar/11/state-department-human-rights
Although President Barack Obama has pledged to close down the prison at Guantánamo and outlaw
AND
section is titled "On the violation of human rights in other nations".

The argument is that the abuse of people in other countries – including the more
AND
report – which clearly discriminates between allies and adversary countries in its evaluations.
 

2NC

SOP

Cant create SOP norms

Jeremy Rabkin 13, Professor of Law at the George Mason School of Law. Model, Resource, or Outlier? What Effect Has the U.S. Constitution Had on the Recently Adopted Constitutions of Other Nations?, 29 May 2013, www.heritage.org/research/lecture/2013/05/model-resource-or-outlier-what-effect-has-the-us-constitution-had-on-the-recently-adopted-constitutions-of-other-nations
Even when people are not ambivalent in their desire to embrace American practices, they
AND
be imported into different cultures as easily as cell phones or Internet connections.

No Preemption Modeling—-General 

The Bush doctrine doesn’t set a precedent for other nations

Lieber and Lieber 2 Keir A. Lieber, Assistant Professor of Political Science, University of Notre Dame and Robert J. Lieber,
Professor of Government and Foreign Service, Georgetown University, December 2002, http://164.109.48.86/journals/itps/1202/ijpe/pj7-4lieber.htm
Some analysts believe that it is counterproductive to make explicit the conditions under which America
AND
will not be emboldened by rhetorical shifts in U.S. policy.

Warfighting

A2: Cred
No impact — allies won’t abandon us and adversaries can’t exploit it
Stephen M. Walt 11, the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University, December 5, 2011, "Does the U.S. still need to reassure its allies?," online: http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/05/us_credibility_is_not_our_problem-http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/12/05/us_credibility_is_not_our_problem
A perennial preoccupation of U.S. diplomacy has been the perceived need to
AND
about it, but in most cases little incentive to actually do it.
Heg D
No credible state based threats
Doug Bandow (senior fellow at the Cato Institute. He is a former special assistant to President Reagan) January 2010 "Military Spending — For What?" http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=11143
The United States dominates the globe militarily. The threats facing America pale compared to
AND
globe’s strongest and most sophisticated military — one well able to defend Americans.

Our doctrine has changed the way that we fight wars- your method is obsolete

Hooker 12 ~Colonel Richard D. Hooker, Jr., commands the XVIII Airborne Corps Combat ¶ Support Brigade ("Dragon Brigade") now deployed to Iraq. He commanded an infantry battalion in the 82d Airborne Division and has served as Special Assistant to the ¶ Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, with the Office of the Chief of Staff of the Army, as Aide ¶ de Camp to the Secretary of the Army, and with the National Security Council. Colonel ¶ Hooker holds an M.S. in national security studies from the National Defense University ¶ and M.A. and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Virginia in international relations Winter 2011-12 "Beyond Vom Kriege: The Character and Conduct of Modern War" Strategic Studies Institute http://strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pubs/parameters/Articles/2011winter/Hooker2.pdf~~
Modern war, at least as practiced in the West, trades on American and
AND
with civilian populations and cultural sites that hinder the use of standoff weapons.

A2: Prez Slow

Google search proves Obama is the definition of decisive- we submit the following screen shot

Obama has shown decisive and strong foreign policy leadership

Leann Caldwell October 28, 2012 http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57541803/emanuel-obama-has-taken-decisive-leadership-on-foreign-policy/-http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-3460_162-57541803/emanuel-obama-has-taken-decisive-leadership-on-foreign-policy/
President Obama’s first chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, rebuked criticism of the president’s
AND
the best foreign policy you can have is a strong America at home."

Obama is quick and decisive in foreign policy action – has respect

MICHAEL D. SHEAR October 21, 2011 The Value of Foreign Policy Victories for Obama
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/can-obama-win-on-foreign-policy/?_r=0-http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/21/can-obama-win-on-foreign-policy/?_r=0
If there was one area of doubt about Barack Obama that lingered in people’s minds
AND
some Republicans on Capitol Hill and his rivals on the presidential campaign trail.

2NC Link

Speed of decisionmaking is key to 4GW- executive power is essential

Li 2009 ~Zheyoa Li Winter, 2009 The Georgetown Journal of Law Public Policy 7 Geo. J.L. 26 Pub. Pol’y 373 "War Powers for the Fourth Generation: Constitutional Interpretation in the Age of Asymmetric Warfare" lexis~
By now it should be clear just how different this conflict against the extremist terrorists
AND
necessary to prevail in fourth-generational conflicts against fourth-generational opponents.

Doesn’t solve "better wars"

Jide Nzelibe 6, Asst. Profesor of Law @ Northwestern, and John Yoo, Emanuel S. Heller Professor of Law @ UC-Berkeley Law, "Rational War and Constitutional Design," Yale Law Journal, Vol. 115, SSRN
But before accepting this attractive vision, we should ask whether the Congress first system
AND
have produced sharp division in American domestic politics and proven to be mistakes.
The other side of the coin here usually goes little noticed, but is just
AND
might be American policy in the Balkans during the middle and late 1990s.
Soft Power D

Policies cannot solve- its all cultural

Reesha Namasivayam, M.A. Candidate, Conflict Analysis, Carleton University, "Soft Power at the United Nations," 2001, http://www.cda-cdai.ca/pdf/namasivayampaper.pdf, accessed 10/15/2002
Even the ’father’ of soft power, Joseph Nye, cautioned that although ’
AND
is an inadvertent byproduct," as opposed to a reflection of deliberate policies.

1NR

It was the politics DA the flash drive that has the speech doc on it is not with me right now. If you really want our old politics cards email me at oakparkdebate@gmail.com

2NR Cards

Nuclear terrorism breaks the taboo- causes escalation

Bin ’9 (5-22-09 About the Authors  Prof. Li
AND
University, which he  completed in 2009 under Prof. Li Bin. )
The nuclear taboo is a kind of international norm and this type of norm is
AND
problem, avoid miscalculation and  thereby reduce the danger of a nuclear war. 

Deterrence prevents India/Pakistan conflict

Tepperman 2009 (Jonathan Tepperman, Deputy Editor at Newsweek Magazine and former Deputy Managing Editor of Foreign Affairs, September 14, 2009, Newsweek, September 14, 2009, Lexis Academic)
The record since then shows the same pattern repeating: nuclear-armed enemies slide
AND
leaders in each country did what they had to do to avoid it.

Neither will strike first

Eric Vas (retired Lieutenant general) 2007 "Can India Avoid a Military conflict with Pakistan?" http://inpad.org/res45.html
Many urge India to stand down in order to decrease the tension between the two
AND
LOC against a terrorist camp escalating into a major battle cannot be overruled.

Doubles v Harvard DT

1NC

Off

The aff is not topical —- introducing armed forces only refers to human troops, not weapons systems such as nuclear weapons —- prefer our interpretation because it’s based on textual analysis, legislative history, and intent of the WPR

Lorber 13 – Eric Lorber, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Ph.D Candidate, Duke University Department of Political Science. January 2013, "Executive Warmaking Authority and Offensive Cyber Operations: Can Existing Legislation Successfully Constrain Presidential Power?" University of Pennsylvania Journal of Contsitutional Law, 15 U. Pa. J. Const. L. 961, lexis nexis
As is evident from a textual analysis, n177 an examination of the legislative history
AND
is highly unlikely - such operations will not trigger the War Powers Resolution.

Vote negative for predictable limits —- nuclear weapons is a whole topic on its own —- requires research into a whole separate literature base —- undermines preparedness for all debates.

Off

Debt ceiling will get raised now bc Obama’s pressuring the GOP and staying on message

Dovere, 10/1 (Edward, Politico, "Government shutdown: President Obama holds the line"
http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3-http://www.politico.com/story/2013/10/government-shutdown-president-obama-holds-the-line-97646.html?hp=f3)

President Barack Obama started September in an agonizing, extended display of how little sway
AND
"They don’t suddenly start going the other way as people rethink this."

NFU burns political capital, disrupting Obama’s agenda

Morton H. Halperin 9 worked on nuclear issues in the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Clinton administrations in the Department of Defense, the National Security Council and the State Department. He is a member of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States and Senior Advisor to the Open Society Institute. Survival | vol. 51 no. 5 | October–November 2009 Promises and Priorities | pp. 17–46
Obama has stated that he believes it is in the American interest to reduce reliance
AND
is the more important, and promising, effort to stigmatise nuclear weapons.

All of his political capital key to dem unity and debt ceiling

Lillis, 9/7/13 (Mike, The Hill, "Fears of wounding Obama weigh heavily on Democrats ahead of vote"
Read more: http://thehill.com/homenews/house/320829-fears-of-wounding-obama-weigh-heavily-on-democrats~~23ixzz2gWiT9H8u
The prospect of wounding President Obama is weighing heavily on Democratic lawmakers as they decide
AND
through this fiscal thicket. These are going to be very difficult votes."

Failure to quickly raise the debt ceiling ensures collapse of the global economy, U.S. economic leadership, and free trade

Davidson 9/10 
Adam, co-founder of NPR’s "Planet Money," a podcast and blog, "Our Debt to Society", http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0-http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/15/magazine/our-debt-to-society.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0, MCR
If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted again this fall, some serious financial decisions will
AND
free asset more risky, the entire global economy becomes riskier and costlier.

Econ collapse

 extinction====
Kemp 10 Geoffrey Kemp, Director of Regional Strategic Programs at The Nixon Center,
AND
and Asia’s Growing Presence in the Middle East, p. 233-4
The second scenario, called Mayhem and Chaos, is the opposite of the first
AND
expected, with dire consequences for two-thirds of the planet’s population.
Off

Nuclear primacy now

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
Since 2006, we have discussed these issues with many nuclear analysts, ¶ US
AND
long-range precision strike, in addition ¶ to nuclear strike capabilities.

First use is key to coercive function of nuclear weapons

Thayer 2012 ~Bradley A. Thayer served as a consultant to the Department of Defense and is professor of political science at Baylor University. February 17, 2012 Washington Times "Preserving our nuclear deterrence" http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2012/feb/17/preserving-our-nuclear-deterrence/~~
Nuclear weapons aid Uncle Sam’s ability to coerce opponents as well for three reasons.
AND
attack and to signal the risk of escalating violence to a higher level.

Inevitable conventional conflicts are coming with nuclear armed adversaries- nuclear primacy is key to contain those conflicts

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
A second set of arguments stems from the problem of nuclear escalation and the future
AND
proceed without a full ¶ suite of modern nuclear and nonnuclear counterforce capabilities. 

Off

The United States should amend its national Constitution to prohibit the first use of nuclear forces without congressional approval.

Solves betta like Metta

Goldstein 88
~Yonkel, J.D., 1988, Stanford Law School. "NOTE: The Failure of Constitutional Controls Over War Powers in the Nuclear Age: The Argument for a Constitutional Amendment." Stanford Law Review 40 Stan. L. Rev. 1543, Nexis~
IV. THE PROPOSED AMENDMENT None of the proposals to control nuclear weapons discussed above
AND
solid framework in which answers to those questions can begin to take shape.
Off

The 1AC’s war powers discourse proliferates symptom-focused solutions to power imbalances—-causes cycles of violence that make extinction inevitable

Ahmed 11 Dr. Nafeez Mosaddeq Ahmed is Executive Director of the Institute for Policy Research and Development (IPRD), an independent think tank focused on the study of violent conflict, he has taught at the Department of International Relations, University of Sussex "The international relations of crisis and the crisis of international relations: from the securitisation of scarcity to the militarisation of society" Global Change, Peace and Security Volume 23, Issue 3, 2011 Taylor Francis, CMR
3. From securitisation to militarisation 3.1 Complicity¶ This analysis thus calls
AND
, effective, and joined-up policy-making on these issues.

Alternative: vote negative to reject the security discourse of the 1AC.

Critical praxis outweighs policy making- voting affirmative guarantees error replication. Only a radical break from dominant paradigms can avoid becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy

Graeme Cheeseman, Snr. Lecturer @ New South Wales, and Robert Bruce Assoc. Prof in social sciences @ Curtin univ, ’96 (Discourses of Danger 26 Dread Frontiers, p. 5-9)
This goal is pursued in ways which are still unconventional in the intellectual milieu of
AND
resistant to them, or choose not to understand them, and why?
Prolif

We already have a limited NFU- solves the aff

Michaela Dodge Summer 2013 Heritage Foundation, Defense and Strategic Policy Analyst
Understanding President Obama’s Nuclear Policy, inFocus Quarterly VOLUME VII: NUMBER 2
Nevertheless, reducing the role and number of U.S. nuclear weapons was
AND
because chemical and biological weapons can cause as many casualties as nuclear weapons.

Unconditional global NFU would destroy the NPT.

Jean Du Preez, pub. date: 9-28-06,  is Dir. of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program (IONP) Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Article VI Forum, "The Demise of Nuclear Negative Security Assurances," accessed: 9-23-09, http://cns.miis.edu/programs/ionp/pdfs/visions_of_fission.pdf-http://cns.miis.edu/programs/ionp/pdfs/visions_of_fission.pdf  
Ironically, the North Korean crisis has provided new fodder for the debate over negative
AND
weapons is to threaten to use or develop nuclear weapons of their own.

No cascade of proliferation – its all alarmist rhetoric

Muthia Alagappa, pub. date: 2008, Distinguished Senior Fellow, East-West Center, "The Long Shadow: Nuclear Weapons and Security in 21st Century Asia," accesed: 1-6-09,  p. 521-2, Google Books
It will be useful at this juncture to address more directly the set of instability
AND
the drivers of national and regional security in Iran and the Middle East. 

No escalation

Victor Asal and Kyle Beardsley, pub. date: 2007, Assistant Prof. Pol. Sci. – SUNY Albany, and Kyle Beardsley, Asst. Prof. Pol. Sci. – Emory Univ., Journal of Peace Research, "Proliferation and International Crisis Behavior," accessed: 12-18-09, http://jpr.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/44/2/139  
The literature on international conflict is divided on the impact of nuclear proliferation on state
AND
a crisis can prevent war, and they cannot speak to other proliferation risks 

China

Chinese nuclear modernization allows for transparency.

Acharya, ’7 (Head — Poli Sci — Asutosh College, http://isq.sagepub.com/cgi/reprint/44/1/57.pdf)
A preliminary hypothesis was that the overlapping and asymmetrical nature of the security dilemmas in
AND
a high degree of confidence while retaining a doubt about the exact size. 

====No risk of Chinese modernization- PLASAF guarantees ====
Zhang ’13 Hui Zhang, a physicist, is leading a research initiative on China’s nuclear policies for the Managing the Atom Project-http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/project/3/managing_the_atom.html in Harvard Kennedy School’ s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs-http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/index.html. RPI AUTHOR HUI ZHANG: CHINA’S NUCLEAR WEAPON NO-FIRST USE PLEDGE IS REAL, PROMOTES DISARMAMENT http://www.risingpowersinitiative.org/rpi-author-hui-zhang-chinas-nuclear-weapon-no-first-use-pledge-is-real-promotes-disarmament/-http://www.risingpowersinitiative.org/rpi-author-hui-zhang-chinas-nuclear-weapon-no-first-use-pledge-is-real-promotes-disarmament/ May 2013
Colonel Yang Yujun, a spokesman for China’s Ministry of Defense, answered this question
AND
a much lower alert status than required for a first-use option.

China modernization isn’t threatening

Kallmyer 2010 ~Kevin Kallmyer CSIS September 23, 2010 "START and China: Really?" http://csis.org/blog/start-and-china-really~~
Further, the fears of Chinese nuclear modernization have been exaggerated. While China is
AND
plenty of time to adapt and respond to such developments if they occur.

Their modernizations are defensive not offensive- no change in posture- they would spend themselves to collapse before they caught up

Kallmyer 2010 ~Kevin Kallmyer CSIS September 23, 2010 "START and China: Really?" http://csis.org/blog/start-and-china-really~~
The Pentagon releases a yearly report entitled "Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s
AND
in an attempt to keep pace with the U.S. military.

No modernization – consensus.

Hansell and Perfilyev 2009 (Cristina Hansell, Director, Newly Independent States Nonproliferation Program, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and Nikita Perfilyev is a Fulbright fellow at the Monterey Institute of International Studies, April 2009, "Strategic Relations between the United States, Russia, and China and the Possibility of Cooperation on Disarmament," cns.miis.edu/opapers/op15/op15.pdf)
China’s official policy is that it maintains nuclear weapons only because other nations threaten it
AND
do not expect Beijing to abandon minimum deterrence at this point in time.

Russia won’t launch on warning – the security relationship has changed.

Ford, 2008 (Dr. Christopher A., Senior Fellow and Director of the Center for Technology and Global Security at the Hudson Institute in Washington. D.C. He previously served as U.S. Special Representative for Nuclear Nonproliferation, and as a Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary of State, "Dilemmas of Nuclear Force "De-Alerting"" October 7)
In the current state of U.S.-Russian relations, the claim that
AND
as well as their own strategic warning sources within the Russian intelligence community.

India has an NFU- they think Pakistan is a larger threat anyways

Dr. Adityanjee May 04, 2013 No First Use Nuclear Doctrine with "Chinese Characteristics"
http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com/2013/05/no-first-use-nuclear-doctrine-with_6.html-http://strategicstudyindia.blogspot.com/2013/05/no-first-use-nuclear-doctrine-with_6.html
Certainly, India should not countenance being the only nuclear weapon state pledging "no
AND
adopted including having a re-look at evolving nuclear posture of China.

No indo pak war- Interdependence

Mamoon and Murshed 2010 (Dawood Mamoon, and Mansoob Murshed, Economics of Governance, 2010, Vol. 11 Issue 2, p145-167, 23p, Political Science Complete)
Conflict between India and Pakistan, which spans over most of last 60 years since
AND
Lanes’ (1910) arguments regarding the futility of inter-state conflict.

Plan not needed – global norms 26 survivability swamp their modeling internals

Reshmi Kazi April 11, 2011 Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
http://www.idsa.in/idsacomments/WhyIndiashouldretainitsNoFirstUsepolicy_rkazi_110411 Why India should retain its No-First-Use policy?
Withdrawing the NFU policy and making a declaration to that effect makes little strategic sense
AND
capability. India should therefore retain its no-first-use doctrine.

India committed to NFU  - diplomatic, economy, strategy, complications

Kanti Bajpai  11-15-2002 Indian academic-analyst Doon School, Dehra Dun, India
Pugwash Meeting no. 279  "No First Use of Nuclear Weapons"  London, UK, 15-17 November 2002  PAPERS  No First Use in the India-Pakistan Context  http://www.pugwash.org/reports/nw/bajpai.htm
Despite the split between minimalists and maximalists, India has stuck with NFU. Why
AND
Thus, NFU may give India more time to establish command and control.

2NC

Topicality

A2: W/M Ppl Launch

Those are not in hostilities

Ambinder 2011 ~Marc Ambinder June 17, 2011 "White House Acknowledges Pentagon’s Lawyer Disagreed About War Powers" http://www.nationaljournal.com/whitehouse/white-house-acknowledges-pentagon-s-lawyer-disagreed-about-war-powers-20110617~~
The Times reported that President Obama, his chief lawyer, Robert Bauer, and
AND
a much shorter duration of action when it first began airstrikes in February.

Historical interps should be preferred in this context

Harvard Law Review, 2012 ~"RECENT ADMINISTRATIVE INTERPRETATION: Separation of Powers - War Powers Resolution – Obama Administration Argues that U.S. Military Action in Libya Does Not Constitute "Hostilities."", April, 125 Harv. L. Rev. 1546~
 ~*1550~  Although Koh’s definition of "hostilities" strains the term’s everyday
AND
it wishes to deny the executive the flexibility on which Koh’s argument relied.

2NC Limits Good 

Literally doubles the educational benefit

Arrington 2009 (Rebecca, UVA Today, "Study Finds That Students Benefit From Depth, Rather Than Breadth, in High School Science Courses" March 4)
A recent study reports that high school students who study fewer science topics, but
AND
impacted twice as much as those in courses that touched on every major topic

Turns their offense—limits are vital to creativity and innovation

David Intrator (President of The Creative Organization) October 21, 2010 "Thinking Inside the Box," http://www.trainingmag.com/article/thinking-inside-box
One of the most pernicious myths about creativity, one that seriously inhibits creative thinking
AND
simply don’t fit into the rules you’re creating as you build your box.

2NC Reasonability

Reasonability is impossible – it’s arbitrary and undermines research and preparation

Resnick, assistant professor of political science – Yeshiva University, ’1
(Evan, "Defining Engagement," Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 54, Iss. 2)
In matters of national security, establishing a clear definition of terms is a precondition
AND
"engagement," they undermine the ability to build an effective foreign policy.

Prolif

NPT Turn

NPT-NSA revision uniquely checks proliferation by incentivizing compliance – spurring a NWFZ in the ME and beyond

Jeffrey Eberhardt, 4-23-2013 Director, Office of Nuclear Affairs, Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, NPT Preparatory Committee Geneva, Switzerland April 25, 2013 http://www.state.gov/t/isn/rls/rm/2013/208047.htm
Specifically, the 2010 Nuclear Posture Review declared that the United States will not use
AND
and affirming the responsibility we all share to strengthen the nuclear nonproliferation regime.

Limiting security assurances to those inside the NPT is key to incentivizing compliance on proliferation.

Jean du Preez, pub. date: 9-28-06,  is Dir. of the International Organizations and Nonproliferation Program (IONP) Center for Nonproliferation Studies, Article VI Forum, "The Demise of Nuclear Negative Security Assurances," accessed: 9-23-09, http://cns.miis.edu/programs/ionp/pdfs/visions_of_fission.pdf-http://cns.miis.edu/programs/ionp/pdfs/visions_of_fission.pdf
Regardless of how legally NSAs are to be formulated, it is important to recognize
AND
the regime and confirm the validity of the NPT and its indefinite extension.

Limiting security agreements to the NPT is key to deter them from leaving the NPT.

Alexei Arbatov, pub. date: November 2008, Bio and Research with the Strategic Studies Institute, ICND, "NON-FIRST USE AS A WAY OF OUTLAWING NUCLEAR WEAPONS," accessed: 9-23-09, http://www.icnnd.org/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf-http://www.icnnd.org/research/Arbatov_NFU_Paper.pdf  
The USA, France and possibly Britain may want to retain a nuclear first strike
AND
serve as an additional deterrence for violation of or withdrawal from the NPT.
?

China

India 

NFU is irrelevant—India will never use nukes against Pakistan or China—strategically ridiculous

Ahmed 10 (Should India give up its NFU Doctrine? Ali Ahmed Research Fellow, Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses NUCLEAR - ARTICLES ~233170, 25 June 2010 The Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) http://www.ipcs.org/article/nuclear/should-india-give-up-its-nfu-doctrine-3170.html)
No First Use, simply stated, is that India would not be the first
AND
front and be of little use in face of the asymmetry with China. 

1NR

2NC Impact Calc

Escalation tensions are inevitable—- none of their impacts are unique—- only escalation control by the US solves

Kier Lieber Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.  and Daryl Press  is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and Coordinator of the War and Peace Studies Program at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding The Nukes We Need Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Nov/Dec 2009, Vol. 88, Issue 6 EBSCO
Such escalatory strategies are rational. Losing a conventional war to the United States would
AND
their nuclear arsenals to force a cease-fire and remain in power.

Primacy actually deters arms racing- ensures high barriers to entry

Kim Holmes is vice president of foreign- and defense-policy studies at the Heritage Foundation. August 7, 2009 Defense games and arms races: not what you think Heritage Foudation http://www.heritage.org/press/commentary/ed080709c.cfm
But Mr. Gates and Mr. Obama misunderstand the real-world dynamics of
AND
for others to build weapons - providing an impetus for an arms race.

Even if we cause a conflict with China- primacy is key to contain it

Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania July August 2007 "Superiority Complex" The Atlantic http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/print/200707/china-nukes
The previous period of American nuclear primacy—the 1950s and early 1960s—illustrates
AND
a major war, including massive nuclear strikes, against the Soviet Union.

Nuclear Primacy UQ

Credible primacy now- insiders confirm

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
Some critics argue that the United States is not seeking strategic primacy. They reject
AND
sounds more malicious) are ¶ simply two phrases describing the same behavior.

A2: Conventional Primacy

Nuclear weapons are key- conventional weapons cannot solve

Lieber and Press 2013 ~Keir A. Lieber¶ ¶ Associate Professor, Edmund A. Walsh School¶ ¶ of Foreign Service, Georgetown University¶ ¶ Daryl G. Press¶ ¶ Associate Professor of Government, Dartmouth College¶ ¶ Coordinator of War and Peace Studies at the John Sloan ¶ ¶ Dickey Center Spring 2013 Strategic Studies Quarterly "The New Era of Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Conflict" http://www.au.af.mil/au/ssq/digital/pdf/spring_13/lieber.pdf~~
A second criticism is that retaining (or improving) specific US nuclear ¶ weapons
AND
still a ¶ sizable gap between what nuclear and conventional weapons can accomplish.

NFU Link Wall 

First use is key to primacy

David S. McDonough is a PhD candidate in political science and a Doctoral Fellow at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University, as well as a recipient of the SSHRC Canadian Graduate Scholarship and an Honourary Killam Scholarship for 2008/2009. He was Chair of the CIC Study Group on Nuclear Strategy "Tailored Deterrence: The ’New Triad’ and the Tailoring of Nuclear Superiority" March 2009 Canadian International Council Strategic Datalink No. 8
Controversy has certainly surrounded the United States’ publicly articulated doctrine of pre-emption.
AND
given the still uncertain technological capability of any hit-to-kill interceptor

Sufficient Weapons

Even though we have had cuts the trend has kept our strategic arsenal strong

Huessy 2013 ~Peter Huessy is President of GeoStrategic Analysis of Potomac, Maryland , a defense and national security consulting firm February 13, 2013 "Nuclear Deterrence: The Search for Nuclear Stability or Nuclear Primacy?" http://www.familysecuritymatters.org/publications/detail/nuclear-deterrence-the-search-for-nuclear-stability-or-nuclear-primacy~~
There is a grave danger in trying to support deterrence "on the cheap"
AND
the part of a nuclear armed power becomes more rather than less likely. 

Nuclear primacy is key to coercive leverage in conflicts to prevent them from escalating

Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania Correspondence The Short Shadow of U.S. Primacy? International Security 31.3 (2007) 174-193  
We ended our article with a call for new research on the utility of nuclear
AND
counterforce strike. Using nuclear weapons would greatly increase the odds of success.

A2: Counterforce Causes Crises 

Benefits to primacy outweigh the costs

Kier Lieber Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service.  and Daryl Press  is Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College and Coordinator of the War and Peace Studies Program at the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding The Nukes We Need Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Nov/Dec 2009, Vol. 88, Issue 6 EBSCO
A second criticism of the argument for retaining and improving certain counterforce capabilities is that
AND
S. leaders would have a much more acceptable option if deterrence fails.

Extended Deterrence Mod

Primacy is key to extended deterrence credibility

Ross, Douglas Alan professor of political science at Simon Fraser University "Nuclear weapons and American grand strategy"  International Journal, Autumn 2008 http://findarticles.com/p/search/?qa=Ross,20Douglas20Alan26tag=content;col1
American nuclear hawks see such questions as Utopian. For them, only a grand
AND
internationally networked ABM defences is essential to backstop such offensive nuclear strike capacity.

The impact is nuclear war – now is the key time.

Shuster, 2009 (Mike, award-winning diplomatic correspondent and roving foreign correspondent for NPR News, internally quotes Joshua Pollack, an expert on nuclear proliferation who writes for the Web site ArmsControlWonk, NPR, "Iran Prompts Debate Over Mideast Defense Umbrella" August 26)
"Nuclear extended deterrence, if it fails, could embroil the United States,
AND
administration now to shore up the credibility of that guarantee," he says.

Tournament: NDT | Round: 1 | Opponent: Vandy SW | Judge: Decker, Struth, Watson
Bipartisan support for NSA reforms – Obama pushing and PC key to quick passage.
David Jackson, USA TODAY 9:44 a.m. EDT March 27, 2014 Obama Unveils Plans to Change NSA Data Grabs http://www.wltx.com/story/news/nation/2014/03/27/obama-nsa-new-rules/6951671/
The Obama administration laid AND government holding on to bulk data." 

New legislation key to prevent massive economic losses
CLAIRE CAIN MILLER MARCH 21, 2014 Revelations of N.S.A. Spying Cost U.S. Tech Companies
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/22/business/fallout-from-snowden-hurting-bottom-line-of-tech-companies.html
SAN FRANCISCO — Microsoft has lost customers, including AND has been a boon for foreign companies.

That economic decline goes nuclear
Green and Schrage ‘9 (Michael J Green is Senior Advisor and Japan Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and Associate Professor at Georgetown University. Steven P Schrage is the CSIS Scholl Chair in International Business and a former senior official with the US Trade Representative's Office, State Department and Ways and Means Committee, Asia Times, 2009 http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Asian_Economy/KC26Dk01.html)

Facing the worst economic crisis since the AND  to put up barriers to close markets.