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Cites
Entry
Date
1NC
Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: Houston JR | Judge: Jordan Foley
T
"Armed forces" means only human members —- not weapons or capabilities
Lorber 13 – Eric Lorber, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School and Ph.D Candidate, Duke University Department of Political Science, "Executive Warmaking Authority and Offensive Cyber Operations: Can Existing Legislation Successfully Constrain Presidential Power?", University of Pennsylvania Journal of Constitutional Law, January, 15 U. Pa. J. Const. L. 961, Lexis
C. The War Powers Resolution as Applied to Offensive Cyber Operations As discussed above, critical to the application of the War Powers Resolution - especially AND it only becomes important if "armed forces" exist in the situation. As is evident from a textual analysis, n177 an examination of the legislative history AND human members of the armed forces, such a conclusion is not determinative. An examination of the legislative history also suggests that Congress clearly conceptualized "armed forces AND conceptualized "armed forces" to mean U.S. combat troops. The broad purpose of the Resolution aimed to prevent the large-scale but unauthorized AND deployment of U.S. personnel, not weapons, into hostilities. This analysis suggests that, when defining the term "armed forces," Congress meant AND is highly unlikely - such operations will not trigger the War Powers Resolution.
Reasons to prefer:
Best topic specific resolution
Predictable ground leads to more nuanced debates, better for education
Limits key to fairness
Framer’s intent, they used the wording of the WPR for a reason
T is a voter
?
DA
Clean debt ceiling deal will be reached—-consensus
The debt ceiling debate will take place in a very different context this time, AND compromise that both sides will need to forge a majority coalition for immigration.
Debt freeze shatters the U.S. and global economies and causes food price spikes
A freeze on the debt ceiling could erode confidence in U.S. Treasury AND while potentially triggering greater global instability—perhaps even a global economic depression.
Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries AND falling off as higher food prices drop their consumption below the survival level.
1NC
The executive branch of the United States should restrict the authority of the President of the United States to introduce nuclear weapons first into hostilities and announce that nuclear weapons will not be introduced into hostilities first.
Executive restraint solves process and implementation- credibly signals the same as the plan and results in long-term checks
Eric A. Posner Kirkland and Ellis Professor of Law, The University of Chicago Law School and Adrian Vermeule Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, 2007 "The Credible Executive" 74 U. Chi. L. Rev. 865
We suggest that the executive’s credibility problem can be solved by second-order AND new political coalitions that will act to defend the new rules or policies.
DA - 1NC
The threat of nuclear use is key to deter CBW attacks
It is a necessary, though not sufficient condition that, to deter NBC use AND mean nuclear retaliation. The warnings from Israel almost certainly reinforced this interpretation.
Bioweapons cause extinction
John Steinbruner, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, chair of the committee on international security and arms control of the National Academy of Sciences, Foreign Policy, December 22, 1997 That deceptively simple observation has immense implications. The use of a manufactured weapon is AND for a global contagion of this sort but not necessarily its outer limit.
China Case
Nuclear tensions with China don’t threaten other areas of relations
Saunders 2009 (Phillip C., senior research professor at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, Managing Strategic Competition with China, Strategic Forum 242, July, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF244China_Saunders.pdf) Some U.S. policymakers and strategists have been reluctant to accept mutual nuclear AND bilateral cooperation on issues such as counterterrorism and denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Saunders 2009 (Phillip C., senior research professor at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, Managing Strategic Competition with China, Strategic Forum 242, July, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF244China_Saunders.pdf) The dynamics of U.S.-China strategic competition in areas such as nuclear AND competing in particular strategic domains is likely to be an enduring policy tension.
Alt cause- sanctions
Liu 2004 (Jieyi, Director-General of the Department of Arms Control and Disarmament, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Nonproliferation Review, Interview conducted by Phillip P. Saunders, Spring, informaworld) Nonproliferation serves the common interests of the international community and all states should cooperate for AND exerts a negative force on the Chinese government’s efforts to strengthen export controls.
China will maintain minimal deterrence posture no matter what- Bush administration proves
Stanley 2007 (Dr. Elizabeth A., Walsh School of Foreign Service and Department of Government, Georgetown University, INTERNATIONAL PERCEPTIONS OF US NUCLEAR POLICY, An Independent Research Project Performed Under Contract for The Advanced Concepts Group Sandia National Laboratories, February, http://prod.sandia.gov/techlib/access-control.cgi/2007/070903.pdf) Without question, the US national missile defense program is having a significant impact on AND you are weak, swallow your bitter medicine and prepare to be strong."
Chinese modernization will be restricted to minimum deterrence
Saunders 2009 (Phillip C., senior research professor at the National Defense University’s Institute for National Strategic Studies, Managing Strategic Competition with China, Strategic Forum 242, July, http://www.ndu.edu/inss/docUploaded/SF244China_Saunders.pdf) Considered broadly, China’s overall nuclear weapons posture has focused on possessing sufficient nuclear capability AND Will the logic underlying China’s nuclear modernization also apply in other strategic areas?
1NC Prolif
No first use pledge causes prolif- hurts incentives to stay with the NPT and sends signal that developing nukes provides security
The forthcoming PrepCom is therefore faced with a daunting task—not only must it AND in good faith and that remain in full compliance with their Treaty obligations.
Some participants were not sure that NFU would measurably reduce the salience of nuclear weapons AND change in US nuclear doctrine is unlikely to affect their own nuclear decisions.
Threats:
— No escalation
Kislov 93 (Alexander K., Professor and Director – Peace and Research Institute, Inadvertent Nuclear War, p. 239-240)
A deliberate nuclear war between East and West is out of the question; but AND is the maximal assumption that is possible if we want to remain realistic.
— Turn – re-alert:
De-alert causes it – net-increasing risk of accidents
Levi and O’Hanlon 5 (Michael A., Senior Fellow for Energy and the Environment – Council on Foreign Relations, and Michael E., Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy – Brookings Institution, The Future of Arms Control, p. 33-35)
Opponents have countered mainly by arguing that reducing alert status means increasing the chance that AND . Cooperative threat reduction and other proliferation prevention programs should be higher priorities.
The developments between Russia and the United States are only a part of wider movement AND disarmament efforts), nuclear non-proliferation is once again a serious topic.
Executive noncompliance most likely – trends, institutional incentives, public sentiment, weak congressional checks
Baron, ’08 (David, Law Prof @ Harvard, Harvard LR, Feb) Powers once claimed by the Executive are not easily relinquished. One sees from our AND that the President is entitled to unfettered discretion in the conduct of war.
Overwhelming empirics prove circumvention and true for obama– congress has zero political incentive to object – no political costs
Cohen, 12 (Michael A. Cohen – fellow at the Century Foundation, 3/28, "Power Grab", Foreign Policy, http://www. foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/power_grab?page=0,1)
Running roughshod over Congress has becoming something of a norm within the Obama administration. AND be the greatest legacy of the U.S. intervention in Libya.
use of state secret doctrine means ZERO checks –we don’t need to win OPEN noncompliance
Bazzle, J.D., Georgetown University Law Center, ’12 ~Timothy, "SHUTTING THE COURTHOUSE DOORS:¶ INVOKING THE STATE SECRETS PRIVILEGE TO THWART¶ JUDICIAL REVIEW IN THE AGE OF TERROR", Civil Rights Law Journal, Vol. 23, No. 1, 2012, RSR~ The war on terror has led to an increased use of the state secrets¶ AND allege a credible claim of government wrongdoing retain¶ their due process rights.
9/22/13
1NC
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Texas FM | Judge: Ryan Wash Al Qaeda losing the war on terror now but continued counterterrorism operations is key to prevent revival Liepman 13(Andrew, former principal deputy director of the National Counterterrorism Center andis a senior policy analyst at RAND Corporation, “Al Qaeda Is Weak and Bungling—but Still Dangerous,” Feb 25, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2013/02/25/USNEWS.html) The casual observer can be excused for being confused after reading news headlines on al AND this diminished threat will be an important factor in ultimately defeating this enemy. Congress wrecks effectiveness Huq 12(Aziz, associate professor of Law at University of Chicago school of law, “Structural Constitutionalism and Counterterrorism,” August) The legislative tendency to act only too late may be entrenched beyond repair. Legislators AND considerable discretion in executive hands about how surveillance resources would be deployed.19 A nuclear terrorist attack would force retaliatory measures escalating to great power war Ayson 10(Robert, professor of strategic studies and director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” June 21, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1057610X.2010.483756) Response Options Involving Force Non-forceful measures such as these present some of the AND for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners said though there are no plans AND by the October deadline, with little back-and-forth negotiations. these guys are for obstructing.”
Congressional confrontation of the president costs PC and trades of with the agenda Emily Berman is Counsel in the Liberty and National Security Project at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, 2010 3 Alb. Gov't L. Rev. 741
First, all extract a significant toll in political capital, sometimes more than Congress AND disuse - it was last invoked in 1935 n97 - and remains unwieldy.
The debt ceiling debate will take place in a very different context this time, AND compromise that both sides will need to forge a majority coalition for immigration. Debt freeze shatters the U.S. and global economies and causes food price spikes Min 10 (David, Associate Director for Financial Markets Policy – Center for American Progress, “The Big Freeze”, 10-28, http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2010/10/big_freeze.html)
A freeze on the debt ceiling could erode confidence in U.S. Treasury AND while potentially triggering greater global instability—perhaps even a global economic depression. Prices spikes kill billions and cause global war Brown 7 (Lester R., Director – Earth Policy Institute, 3-21, http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2007/Update65 .htm)
Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries AND falling off as higher food prices drop their consumption below the survival level.
The executive branch of the United States should statutorily prohibit the war powers authority of president to use of humanitarian justifications and announce that for introducing the United States Armed Forces into hostilities. CP solves- functional limits create accountability and don’t link to politics Michaels 11 (Jon, Professor, UCLA School of Law, “The (Willingly) Fettered Executive: Presidential Spinoffs in National Security Domains and Beyond,” Virginia Law Review, http://www.virginialawreview.org/content/pdfs/97/801.pdf)
These are revealing case studies, weighty in their own right and interesting complements to AND itself serves as testament to the durability and primacy of the dominant understanding. ? Obama will circumvent the plan and Congress won’t enforce it Kriner, 10 (Douglas L. – assistant professor of political science at Boston University, ed. William Howell and Jon Pevenhouse, “After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War”, p. 41-42)
However, if Congress can exert influence over military policymaking only by taking a leading AND be able to affect presidents’ decision calculus through other, more indirect means.
Status Quo solves Sloan et al., 5 (Virginia E. Sloan – President and Founder and Director – Death Penalty and Right to Counsel Initiatives and Co-Director – Sentencing Initiative, “Deciding to Use Force Abroad: War Powers in a System of Checks and Balances”, The Constitution Project, http://www.constitutionproject.org/pdf/28.pdf)
Peacetime Deployments – Finally, the President does not command the armed forces only in AND not objecting to them when it had the opportunity to do so.45 It is more doubtful, however, that Congress can be said to have acquiesced AND “to any signi?cant…peacekeeping, or peace-enforcement operations.”47
( ) Neg scholarship too sweeping and turns own agenda. Patriarchy doesn’t explain violence in this context
( ) Gender not root cause – causality runs in other direction. Must start with war to solve Neg’s offense.
Goldstein ‘1 Joshua S. Goldstein, Professor of International Relations at American University, War and Gender: How Gender Shapes the War System and Vice Versa, 2001, pp.411-412
I began this book hoping to contribute in some way to a deeper understanding of AND on injustice as the main cause of war seems to be empirically inadequate.
Executive wont comply, Congress wont bring suit and court will deny jurisdiction if they do – 4 reasons – standing, PQD, mootness, institutional costs create incentive to stay out McGinnis, 93 John McGinnis, Assistant Professor, Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law, 1993, http://scholarship.law.duke.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4213andcontext=lcp
Congress might also have attempted to challenge the President's lawmaking by invoking the judiciary's help AND to enforce the law,' members of Congress took no further action.
10/5/13
1NC
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: Missouri State HR | Judge: Sarah Weiner Terror
Al Qaeda losing the war on terror now but continued counterterrorism operations is key to prevent revival
Liepman 13(Andrew, former principal deputy director of the National Counterterrorism Center andis a senior policy analyst at RAND Corporation, "Al Qaeda Is Weak and Bungling—but Still Dangerous," Feb 25, http://www.rand.org/commentary/2013/02/25/USNEWS.html) The casual observer can be excused for being confused after reading news headlines on al AND this diminished threat will be an important factor in ultimately defeating this enemy.
Oversight takes too long – makes drones ineffective - unilateral executive decision making key
A nuclear terrorist attack would force retaliatory measures escalating to great power war
Ayson 10(Robert, professor of strategic studies and director of the Centre for Strategic Studies, "After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects," June 21, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1057610X.2010.483756) Response Options Involving Force Non-forceful measures such as these present some of the AND for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.
Politics
Debt ceiling deal will be reached- GOP will blink in the wake of the shutdown- debt ceiling has much larger impacts
Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners said though there are no plans AND by the October deadline, with little back-and-forth negotiations. these guys are for obstructing."
Public supports drone use and is unconcerned about the legal issue
The U.S. public has consistently supported the use of drone strikes — AND that they were very concerned about whether the drone program was conducted legally.
PC Key to avoid prolonged standoff over debt ceiling that tanks economy
The debt ceiling debate will take place in a very different context this time, AND compromise that both sides will need to forge a majority coalition for immigration.
Debt freeze shatters the U.S. and global economies and causes food price spikes
A freeze on the debt ceiling could erode confidence in U.S. Treasury AND while potentially triggering greater global instability—perhaps even a global economic depression.
Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries AND falling off as higher food prices drop their consumption below the survival level.
CP:
The executive branch of the United States should restrict the WPA of the prez by amending the War Powers Act of 1973 and announce the offensive use of drones into the definition of "hostilities"
CP solves- functional limits create accountability and don’t link to politics
These are revealing case studies, weighty in their own right and interesting complements to AND itself serves as testament to the durability and primacy of the dominant understanding. ? Heg DA
Restricting the executive’s ability to control targeted killing operations collapses heg – causes chain of command uncertainty, undermines unit cohesion, and crushes battlefield decision making
Larry Maher and Herbert L. Fenster 2010 (Larry Maher: Quartermaster General, Herbert L. Fenster: D.C. Bar No. 153825, Attorneys for Amicus Curiae, The Veterans of Foreign Wars of the United States, Nasser al-Aulaqi,¶ vs.¶ Barack H. Obama, et al., CASE NO. 1:10-cv-01469-JDB "BRIEF OF THE VETERANS OF FOREIGN WARS OF THE UNITED STATES AS AMICUS CURIAE IN SUPPORT OF DEFENDANTS AND DISMISSAL" http://ccrjustice.org/files/Amicus_Curiae_Brief_of_VFW.pdf-http://ccrjustice.org/files/Amicus_Curiae_Brief_of_VFW.pdf)
The VFW agrees with the Government’s arguments regarding why this suit is barred,¶ including by the political question doctrine. Rather than repeating those arguments, this amicus¶ brief seeks to add perspective to the reasons why suits like the present action would threaten¶ national security by interfering with ongoing military operations. Allowing this case to proceed¶ would contravene the core military principle of "unity of command," and undermine the¶ military’s chain of command, creating uncertainty for subordinate leaders and soldiers. Such¶ litigation also would adversely affect unit cohesion, the glue which binds small units together in¶ the heat of battle, and enables them to survive and accomplish their missions. Further, litigation¶ of cases such as this would undermine battlefield decisionmaking by subjecting tactical,¶ operational and strategic decisions to second-guessing by courts far removed from the battlefield.¶ And, to the extent this case will involve the activities of special operations forces, the VFW¶ urges the Court to tread with particular caution, because of the need to protect the extremely¶ sensitive sources and methods utilized by our nation’s elite forces. ARGUMENT¶ ALLOWING THIS TYPE OF SUIT TO PROCEED WOULD SERIOUSLY IMPAIR¶ NATIONAL SECURITY AND U.S. MILITARY OPERATIONS OVERSEAS¶ "Without doubt, our Constitution recognizes that core strategic matters of warmaking¶ belong in the hands of those who are best positioned and most politically accountable for making¶ them." Hamdi v. Rumsfeld, 542 U.S. 507, 531 (2004), citing Department of Navy v. Egan, 484¶ U.S. 518, 530 (1988); see also Youngstown Sheet 26 Tube Co. v. Sawyer, 343 U.S. 579, 587¶ (1952) (acknowledging "broad powers in military commanders engaged in day-to-day fighting in¶ a theater of war"). As veterans of this nation’s wars, the VFW’s members urge this Court to¶ leave such matters in the hands of the President and Congress, because allowing this suit to¶ proceed would undermine core military institutions such as the chain of command and unit¶ cohesion.¶ A. Adjudication Of This Case Would Compromise The Military Principle Of¶ "Unity Of Command," And Undermine The Chain Of Command¶ "Unity of command," and its corollary, "unity of effort," are fundamental principles of¶ warfare which are central to the effectiveness of Western militaries. See Carl von Clausewitz,¶ On War 200-210 (Michael Howard 26 Peter Paret, ed. and trans., Princeton University Press¶ 1976) (1832) (hereinafter "Clausewitz"). There "is no higher and simpler law of strategy" than¶ to apply this principle in order to concentrate a nation’s military power its adversaries’ "center of¶ gravity." Id. at 204. This principle was first embraced by the American military during the 19th¶ Century, and has subsequently shaped the organizational structure of American warfighting¶ through two world wars and countless other conflicts. See James F. Schnabel, History of the¶ Joints Chiefs of Staff, Vol. 1 at 80-87 (1996); Russell F. Weigley, History of the United States¶ Army at 422-423 (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1984). Unity of command requires the integration of all combat functions into a single organizational element, with command¶ authority vested in a single individual. See U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Joint Pub. 3-0, Joint¶ Operations at Appx. A, p. A-2 (2010), available at¶ http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_0.pdf-http://www.dtic.mil/doctrine/new_pubs/jp3_0.pdf.
Global nuclear war
Brooks 13 – Stephen G., Associate Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, G. John ikenberry, Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University and Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University in Seoul and William C. Wohlforth, Professor of Government at Dartmouth College, "Lean Forward", Foreign Affairs, January / February, 92(1)
They are wrong. In making their case, advocates of retrenchment overstate the costs AND an engaged and liberal leading power. The results could well be disastrous.
Fill-In
Drones are comparatively the best option – reduced reliance causes a shift to ground operations which increases civilian casualties
SANAA, Yemen — Yemeni security officials say a suspected U.S. drone AND while government troops are also confronting them in various parts of the country.
Reliance on ground operations forces the US into multiple wars – turns the case causes more backlash
No chance of conflict—new Pakistan PM solves relations, Pakistan becoming more democratic, close relationship between Singh and Sharif, Indian optimism, favorable circumstances, Pakistan army is willing to improve ties, deeper economic engagement planned, more positive Indian discourse
Now that we know Nawaz Sharif will succeed Raja Pervez Ashraf as the next prime minster of Pakistan, it’s worth noting that Pakistan has never seen a democratic transition as smooth as the one set to take place between the outgoing Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the newly elected Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, or PML(N). In its 66-year history as an independent nation, Pakistan has witnessed three military coups and extended rule by army generals. Even today, the nation is plagued by political turmoil. But this year seems to be a new chapter in its turbulent history. The verdict from the 2013 elections gives the PML(N) 123 seats out of 254 declared results as of Tuesday evening, giving Sharif’s party an unassailable lead over its main rivals, PPP and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, which had secured 31 and 26 seats, respectively. The electoral results for the final 18 of Pakistan’s 272 National Assembly seats remain unannounced. The voter turnout this year was impressive, with 60 percent of all registered voters AND message to the outside world and gives hope for peace on the Subcontinent. In particular, India has a stake in the democratic success of its neighbor, with whom relations have been turbulent. There is widespread hope in India that Sharif, who formed a new Indo-Pakistani relationship in the 1990s, will revive the peace process and improve Islamabad’s ties with New Delhi. Indian Prime minister Manmohan Singh was one of the first world leaders to congratulate Sharif after his emphatic victory. In a letter, Singh talked about charting a new course for the relationship between the two countries and invited his Pakistan counterpart to visit India. Sharif reciprocated and emphasized the need for improved relations with India. He further stressed the importance of resolving issues, including Kashmir, through peaceful means. He even informally invited the Indian premier to his inauguration ceremony in Islamabad. According to veteran Pakistani author and political analyst Ahmed Rashid, circumstances may be more favorable this time for Sharif to improve ties with New Delhi. He writes, "During his two premierships in the 1990s, Sharif made genuine efforts at peace with India but was thwarted by an aggressive and uncompromising army." But, he continues, "The army—faced with a severe weakening of the state—now seems more amenable to improving relations with New Delhi." The Hindu opines that where Sharif "gives most hope is in his strong and unambiguous articulation of better India-Pakistan relations, though this will depend on his stated determination to correct the civil-military imbalance, and reclaim the national agenda from the security establishment. Whether he can succeed is another question, but India will be hoping he will." As Pakistan passes through a rough economic patch, deeper engagement with its immediate neighbor will not only give the volatile country increased political stability but will also boost growth. India can play a major role in reviving Pakistan’s bankrupt economy as a potential investor. According to an article published by the New Delhi-based think tank Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), trade between the two South Asian countries could receive renewed impetus under the new regime, barring complications from opposition by the religious right. However, the IDSA article also notes that "one should not expect a lot of change in policies related to terrorism targeted at India or its aversion to India’s presence in Afghanistan." Despite skepticism, there is a general mood of optimism in India about the regime change in Pakistan. Just a couple of weeks ago Indian media was full of anti-Pakistan stories in the wake of the attack on Indian prisoner Sarabjit Singh in a Pakistani jail. While most Indian reports were full of jingoism in their coverage of the death of Singh, the election has changed the tone of the discourse. The optimism stems from Sharif’s earlier initiatives in the 1990s to deepen ties with India AND the Line of Control under the leadership of former military ruler Pervez Musharraf. The new leadership in Pakistan has a very tough job at hand: alleviate the deep-seated historical fear and mistrust between the two countries. Likewise, India will have to show maturity in understanding the changing mood and aspirations of the people of Pakistan. New Delhi needs to recognize that never before has there been such an overwhelming consensus for Pakistan to normalize relations with India. If the leaderships of both countries work hard to tap this desire, they may be able to usher in a new era of peace and progress on the Subcontinent. No chance that Pakistan will collapse Bandow 09 (Senior Fellow @ Cato, former special assistant to Reagan (11/31/09, Doug, "Recognizing the Limits of American Power in Afghanistan," Huffington Post,http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php ?pub_id=10924)
From Pakistan’s perspective, limiting the war on almost any terms would be better than AND state in the vain hope of salvaging Afghanistan would be a terrible mistake."
Yemen instability inevitable—Southern independence movement, sectarian tensions, poor economy, troublesome political players remain, multiple assassinations, President Hadi has no public support and no plan to deal with crises, violent clashes between political groups, delayed dialogue, troubled economy
Yet many Yemenis now doubt that anything substantial has changed and fear that the much-hailed "Yemen model" is enshrining a fragile stability at a time when decisive action is needed. Beyond the capital, the country is more rudderless than ever. The south is in the grip of a surging independence movement, and sectarian tensions are rising dangerously in the north. The economy is a shambles. All of the same troublesome political players — including the still-powerful former president, Ali Abdullah Saleh — remain, and the new president, Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi, has struggled to assert himself against them. "I have never felt the anxiety I feel now," said Sami Ghalib, a political analyst and former newspaper editor. "There was always geographical conflict, but now it is turning ideological. There are assassinations taking place everywhere. And at the helm, we have a leader who behaves like Saleh but doesn’t even have his political skills." Unlike his predecessor, Mr. Hadi is a virtual recluse who rarely speaks in public and has failed to offer a clear vision for addressing any of the crises afflicting the country. His fierce praise for the American drone-strike program, which is unpopular here, has further eroded his small base of public support. He is widely said to fear for his life and has appointed many family members and old allies to security positions. Some progress has been made. A military campaign last year recaptured several southern towns from the jihadist militants who had controlled them for more than a year. But most of the fighters seem to have melted back into the population, and in the wake of the military’s withdrawal, large areas of the south remain a checkerboard of mysterious armed groups with no government presence. Meanwhile, Al Qaeda’s Yemeni affiliate has adopted a new tactic: a ruthless campaign of assassinations that has left 74 military and intelligence officers dead since the start of last year, according to Interior Ministry officials. Almost all of the killings have been carried out by masked gunmen on motorcycles — often with pistols equipped with silencers — and only a few suspects have been arrested. Mr. Hadi’s supporters point out that he inherited a fearsome set of challenges. AND systems of patronage constitute one of the main obstacles to any real change. Some analysts and diplomats give Mr. Hadi credit for a slow, steady effort to disarm his rivals. "He understood that the only way to undermine Saleh was by initially allying himself with Ali Muhsin," the powerful general who defected to the opposition during the 2011 protests, said a European diplomat who spoke on the condition of anonymity, under diplomatic protocol. Mr. Hadi has removed a number of military commanders loyal to the former president AND lacks such networks, will follow through on his efforts to weaken them. He must also contend with a southern independence movement that has grown so large over AND , and almost all have refused to take part in the national dialogue. Actual secession by the south — which was a separate country until 1990 — is unlikely in the absence of firmer leadership and foreign support. But the movement has grown more radical by the day, complicating efforts to restore governance. In a paradox, Mr. Hadi is a southerner and was chosen in part on the premise that this would help him to placate the secessionists. Instead, he is widely hated in the south, in part because he is seen as a pillar of the northern political system after serving for 18 years as Mr. Saleh’s deputy. "Hadi could still win back the south, or at least calm the situation there, if he made the right gestures," said Abdel Ghani al-Iryani, an expert in Yemeni politics. "But he is not a bold political actor." Another rising threat is the growth of an increasingly violent and sectarian confrontation between two of Yemen’s largest political groups. One of those groups, known as the Houthi movement, is led by radical adherents of a variant of Shiite Islam and has been accused of receiving support from Iran. Its followers have clashed repeatedly with youths from Islah, Yemen’s main Sunni Islamist party and the local equivalent of the Muslim Brotherhood. This conflict has taken on aspects of a proxy war between Saudi Arabia — which supports Islah — and Iran, with troubling Sunni-Shiite overtones. The Houthis have grown increasingly strident, holding vast public rallies modeled after those of Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shiite movement. The two groups regularly malign each other in sectarian terms — a new occurrence in Yemen — and on several occasions, rallies have devolved into rock-throwing and even gun battles between members of the two camps. "Everybody is worried about this," said Najib Ghalib, the chairman of the Jazeera Studies Center in Sanaa. "Hadi needs to cool things down, but he hasn’t." Instead, Mr. Hadi is said to be placing his energy and hopes in the national dialogue, an unwieldy political conference that was mandated in the transition plan. The dialogue, which has been repeatedly delayed, will bring together 565 representatives of Yemen’s various political groups, in numerous subcommittees and plenary sessions over a six-month period. The idea, diplomats say, is to undertake a group process that will itself be therapeutic, even if the dialogue yields few consensual decisions about Yemen’s political future. Skeptics abound, in part because some of the most intransigent political groups, like the Houthis and the southern separatists, refuse to participate. Mr. Hadi, like his predecessor, appears to have paid little attention to AND of anonymity. "But can we count on that in the future?" On a recent afternoon, a Yemeni political activist named Radhia al-Mutawakel watched as images of violent protesting in Egypt flared on a television screen. "I envy the Egyptians," Ms. Mutawakel said. "There, the independent activists at least have a voice. Here, we have none. There, they have a unified army. Here, everything is divided, and nothing has changed." Heg
Data disproves heg security impacts
Fettweis, 11 Christopher J. Fettweis, Department of Political Science, Tulane University, 9/26/11, Free Riding or Restraint? Examining European Grand Strategy, Comparative Strategy, 30:316–332, EBSCO
It is perhaps worth noting that there is no evidence to support a direct relationship AND global policeman. Those who think otherwise base their view on faith alone.
More studies
Amitai Etzioni 6/28/12 (Amitai Etzioni served as a senior advisor to the Carter White House; taught at Columbia University, Harvard and The University of California at Berkeley; and is a university professor and professor of international relations at The George Washington University, national interest, "The Folly of Nation Building" http://nationalinterest.org/article/the-folly-nation-building-7058?page=3
In a 2003 study, Minxin Pei and Sara Kasper examined U.S. AND politics in other countries" is both "unjustified" and "problematic."
Not a restriction- just limits, not categorically prohibited
Jennifer C. Daskal, Fellow and Adjunct Professor, Georgetown Center on National Security and the Law, Georgetown University Law Center, April, 2013 161 U. Pa. L. Rev. 1165
Law-of-war detention and lethal targeting outside a zone of active AND -of-war detention that take place outside zones of active hostilities.
Only puts a condition on executive power – not a restriction
Kills limits, justifies putting any number of conditions on as a plan, and ground, links assume a reduction
Voter for fairness and education
DA:
Debt ceiling deal will be reached- GOP will blink in the wake of the shutdown- debt ceiling has much larger impacts
Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading Partners said though there are no plans AND by the October deadline, with little back-and-forth negotiations. these guys are for obstructing."
Public supports drone use and is unconcerned about the legal issue
The U.S. public has consistently supported the use of drone strikes — AND that they were very concerned about whether the drone program was conducted legally.
PC Key to avoid prolonged standoff over debt ceiling that tanks economy
The debt ceiling debate will take place in a very different context this time, AND compromise that both sides will need to forge a majority coalition for immigration.
Debt freeze shatters the U.S. and global economies and causes food price spikes
A freeze on the debt ceiling could erode confidence in U.S. Treasury AND while potentially triggering greater global instability—perhaps even a global economic depression.
Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries AND falling off as higher food prices drop their consumption below the survival level.
CP:
The executive branch of the United States should statutorily restrict executive war power authority for targeted killing as a first resort outside zones of active hostilities and announce executive war power authority for targeted killing as a first resort outside zones of active hostilities.
CP solves- functional limits create accountability and don’t link to politics
These are revealing case studies, weighty in their own right and interesting complements to AND itself serves as testament to the durability and primacy of the dominant understanding.
DA:
Exec flexibility on detention powers now – key to effectiveness
Michael Tomatz 13, Colonel, B.A., University of Houston, J AND ON ENEMY DETENTION," 69 A.F. L. Rev. 1 President Obama signed the NDAA "despite having serious reservations with certain provisions that regulate AND about known and hidden dangers, and preventing terrorists from continuing the fight.
Perception– Congressional interference sends the signal to our enemies that we don’t have the political will for warfighting
Newton 12 – prof of law @ Vanderbilt (Michael, CASE WESTERN RESERVE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW•VOL. 45, Inadvertent Implications of the War Powers Resolution) The corollary to this modern reality, and the second of three inadvertent implications of AND asymmetric enemy can in theory erode our political will even before it solidifies.
Solves escalation of global hotspots- retrenchment causes bickering internationally over leadership and prevents cooperation Brzezinski 2012 Zbigniew K. Brzezinski (CSIS counselor and trustee and cochairs the CSIS Advisory Board. He is also the Robert E. Osgood Professor of American Foreign Policy at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, in Washington, D.C. He is cochair of the American Committee for Peace in the Caucasus and a member of the International Advisory Board of the Atlantic Council. He is a former chairman of the American-Ukrainian Advisory Committee. He was a member of the Policy Planning Council of the Department of State from 1966 to 1968; chairman of the Humphrey Foreign Policy Task Force in the 1968 presidential campaign; director of the Trilateral Commission from 1973 to 1976; and principal foreign policy adviser to Jimmy Carter in the 1976 presidential campaign. From 1977 to 1981, Dr. Brzezinski was national security adviser to President Jimmy Carter. In 1981, he was awarded the Presidential Medal of Freedom for his role in the normalization of U.S.-China relations and for his contributions to the human rights and national security policies of the United States. He was also a member of the President’s Chemical Warfare Commission (1985), the National Security Council–Defense Department Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy (1987–1988), and the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (1987–1989). In 1988, he was cochairman of the Bush National Security Advisory Task Force, and in 2004, he was cochairman of a Council on Foreign Relations task force that issued the report Iran: Time for a New Approach. Dr. Brzezinski received a B.A. and M.A. from McGill University (1949, 1950) and Ph.D. from Harvard University (1953). He was a member of the faculties of Columbia University (1960–1989) and Harvard University (1953–1960). Dr. Brzezinski holds honorary degrees from Georgetown University, Williams College, Fordham University, College of the Holy Cross, Alliance College, the Catholic University of Lublin, Warsaw University, and Vilnius University. He is the recipient of numerous honors and awards) February 2012 "After America" http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/01/03/after_america?page=0,0 For if America falters, the world is unlikely to be dominated by a single AND policy — or start bracing itself for a dangerous slide into global turmoil.
? CASE:
Drones are comparatively the best option – reduced reliance causes a shift to ground operations which increases civilian casualties
At one point on the show, the host mentioned that over forty countries are AND another example of the seemingly inevitable expansion of such systems in global warfare.
"Drones are the best intelligence devices after satellite surveillance. Obviously, the small AND countermeasures develop. War always seems to find a way," he said.
No China scenario
Only use drones for surveillance- constrained by sovereignty and international frameworks
This impressive arsenal may tempt China to pull the trigger. The fact that a AND caution - something Washington must bear in mind with its own drone programme.
It’s definitely not the US- already out of sync with US use
Chinese drones inevitable- don’t base their drone use on US norms
Mr. Easton said deploying the drone near disputed waters and islands "was AND said on its Web site that it produces 90 percent of Chinese drones.
SECOND ADV.
The aff bans the strikes that they say they make more successful- can’t solve terrorist save-havens unless they’re in a zone of active hostility- leaders are outside of active hostilities
John R. Crook, Professorial Lecturer in Law, George Washington University, April 2013 CONTEMPORARY PRACTICE OF THE UNITED STATES RELATING TO INTERNATIONAL LAW: USE OF FORCE AND ARMS CONTROL: U.S. Department of Justice "White Paper" Addresses Legal Basis for Use of Lethal Force Against U.S. Citizens
Any operation of the sort discussed here would be conducted in a foreign country against AND express geographic limitation on the use of force it authorizes. . . .
"Active" conflict zone distinction lacks any definitional certainty – allows circumvention and UNDERMINES CREDIBILITY OF TARGETED KILLINGS LEGAL REGIME
Other considerations: Many like to draw distinctions between on and off a so-called "hot AND caution against the development of different legal regimes and standards on this basis.
Executive empirically circumvents other two branches on targeted killing issues
Kristin Roberts 3/22/13 (national journal, News Editor for National Journal. In this role, she leads the team of managing editors and guides NJ’s coverage of the biggest stories. Before joining National Journal in November 2011, Kristin was news editor and deputy bureau chief for Reuters’ Washington bureau. She spent 11 years at Reuters, with positions in New York, Miami, and Washington. She covered Wall Street while in New York and then led Reuters’ coverage of housing and banking policy and regulation from Washington. In 2006, she shifted to Pentagon coverage, reporting on war policy and traveling with Defense Secretaries Donald Rumsfeld and Robert Gates. Kristin holds a master’s degree in security studies from Georgetown University, a master’s degree in journalism from Columbia University, and a bachelor’s degree in international affairs from The George Washington University, "When the Whole World Has Drones" http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/when-the-whole-world-has-drones-20130321)
America, the world’s leading democracy and a country built on a legal and moral framework unlike any other, has adopted a war-making process that too often bypasses its traditional, regimented, and rigorously overseen military in favor of a secret program never publicly discussed, based on legal advice never properly vetted. The Obama administration has used its executive power to refuse or outright ignore requests by congressional overseers, and it has resisted monitoring by federal courts.
10/6/13
1NR
Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: Houston JR | Judge: Jordan Foley 2NC Food Prices Impact Wall Disad outweighs and turns the case —- Magnitude —- food price spikes cause global instability and directly kills billions —- that’s Brown. Even without escalation, half the planet dies Brown 5 (Lester, President of Earth Policy Institute, MPA – Harvard, Former Advisor to the Secretary of Agriculture, Outgrowing The Earth, http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/-http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/)
"Many Americans see terrorism as the principal threat to security," said Brown AND For them, it is the next meal that is the overriding concern." And —- food conflicts go global —- triggers World War 3 Calvin 98 (William, Theoretical Neurophysiologist – U Washington, Atlantic Monthly, January, Vol 281, No. 1, p. 47-64) The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would AND longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic. Causes mass global instability, turns case Brown 7 (Lester R., Director – Earth Policy Institute, 3-21, http://www.earth-policy.org/Updates/2007/Update65 .htm) Urban food protests in response to rising food prices in low and middle income countries AND falling off as higher food prices drop their consumption below the survival level.
On the Line by line: AT: Summers Thumper Backing off on Summers saved leverage Kevin Carmichael, Globe and Mail, 9/17/13, With Summers out of running, a fractious fall looms in U.S., Lexis
Ms. Warren was one of four Democrats on the banking committee who said they AND or extend existing spending authority, would force the government to cease operations.
C/A how PC is here and key to avoid stand off that’s McGregor 13
The debt ceiling is set to become a pressing issue for the White House and AND certain spending cuts are implemented. Democrats have pushed back against that notion.
Restriction Link- PC/Agenda Crowd-Out On the link debate: Extend PC Key to avoid prolonged standoff over debt ceiling that tanks economy McGregor, 13 Congressional confrontation of the president costs PC and trades of with the agenda Emily Berman is Counsel in the Liberty and National Security Project at the Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law, 2010 3 Alb. Gov’t L. Rev. 741
First, all extract a significant toll in political capital, sometimes more than Congress AND disuse - it was last invoked in 1935 n97 - and remains unwieldy. Congressional opposition on WPR saps PC and trades of with Obama’s domestic agenda Douglas L. Kriner, assistant professor of political science at Boston University, "After the Rubicon: Congress, Presidents, and the Politics of Waging War", University of Chicago Press, Dec 1, 2010, page 68-69
Raising or Lowering Political Costs by Affecting Presidential Political Capital Shaping both real and anticipated public opinion are two important ways in which Congress can AND its costs than if Congress stood behind him in the¶ international arena.
Link – NFU – PC Plan dooms Obama Halperin, November ’09 (Morton, November, Survival, worked on nuclear issues in the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon and Clinton administrations in the Department of Defense, the National Security Council and the State Department. He is a member of the Congressional Commission on the Strategic Posture of the United States and Senior Advisor to the Open Society Institute. He has written numerous books and articles on nuclear policy)
As Sagan notes, these arguments are not new. In fact I presented a AND their objections, particularly given the importance that they attach to extended deterrence.
2NC Econ IL Wall Debt ceiling most likely scenario for economic collapse- triggers T-bill sell off, boom and bust cycle and budget collapse- it’s perception based- ends foreign investment- controls all possible internal links to the econ Extinction Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, "The Global Economy Unravels", Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187) What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression AND may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.
9/22/13
1NR
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Texas FM | Judge: Ryan Wash Instability escalates to WWIII Calvin 98 (William, Theoretical Neurophysiologist – U Washington, Atlantic Monthly, January, Vol 281, No. 1, p. 47-64)
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would AND no longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic
The effects of a government shutdown or a debt ceiling battle depend on how long AND days in which the government shutdown ends and the debt ceiling is raised. ? Congressional restrictions doom Obama- losers lose thesis is true- looks like political overreach and a bargaining failure- perception matters Dr. Andrew J. Loomis is a Visiting Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, and Department of Government at¶ Georgetown University, “Leveraging legitimacy in the crafting of U.S. foreign policy”, March 2, 2007, pg 36-37,¶ http://citation.allacademic.com//meta/p_mla_apa_research_citation/1/7/9/4/8/pages179487/p179487-36.php
American Presidents are vested with certain structural powers, such as those powers granted by AND affects the character of U.S. policy, foreign and domestic.
While there is yet no solution to the US government partial shutdown nor a AND of government by crisis although some traders can thrive in such an atmosphere.
Impact: Disad outweighs and turns the case --- Magnitude --- food price spikes cause global instability and directly kills billions --- that’s Brown. Even without escalation, half the planet dies Brown 5 (Lester, President of Earth Policy Institute, MPA – Harvard, Former Advisor to the Secretary of Agriculture, Outgrowing The Earth, http://www.earth-policy.org/Books/Out/)
“Many Americans see terrorism as the principal threat to security,” said Brown AND For them, it is the next meal that is the overriding concern.” And --- food conflicts go global --- triggers World War 3 Calvin 98 (William, Theoretical Neurophysiologist – U Washington, Atlantic Monthly, January, Vol 281, No. 1, p. 47-64)
The population-crash scenario is surely the most appalling. Plummeting crop yields would AND longer do so if it lost the extra warming from the North Atlantic.
10/5/13
1NR
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: Missouri State HR | Judge: Sarah Weiner
Drone strikes decimate terrorist leadership and safe havens – key to prevent large scale attacks
A nuclear terrorist attack would wreck economy and global trade
Allison 8(Graham, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard’s John F. Kennedy School of Government, "Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Nuclear Terrorism," October 20, http://www.technologyreview.com/article/411022/nuclear-deterrence-in-the-age-of-nuclear-terrorism/page/3/) No one who has examined the evidence has any doubt that al?Qaeda is AND he observed, create "a second death toll throughout the developing world."
Economic decline leads to war
Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction – U.S. Department of Defense, "Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises", Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict AND not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
Conventional Terrorism Trick
Even if they win nuclear terrorism won’t happen even a large conventional attack triggers our retaliation impacts
Hoffman 1(Bruce, director of RANDs Washington Office, "Section V: Proliferation, Terrorism, Humanitarian Interventions," RAND, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1306z1/MR1306.1.sec5.pdf) In any event, the most likely range of terrorist threats will not include the AND deliberate and delicately planned use of a CBNR agent for more discreet purposes.
Outweighs Rogue States
Nuclear terrorism outweighs rogue state use
Etzioni 4(Amitai, Senior Advisor to the Carter White House; taught at Columbia University, Harvard Business School, University of California at Berkeley, and was the first person to receive the prestigious award of title of University Professor at George Washington University, where he is the Director of the Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies "Pre-empting Nuclear Terrorism in a New Global Order," The Foreign Policy Center, October, http://www.gwu.edu/~~ccps/PreemptNucTerr.pdf) There are several reasons why nuclear terrorism is more challenging than nuclear attacks from rogue AND of nuclear terrorism higher than the danger of nuclear strikes by rogue states.
AT: Predictability
Fairness outweighs – there’s no reason they need to know how we’re running the counterplan before the round. 2. Conditionality is predictable – there is no logical way to "straight turn" a normative claim, only a descriptive one.
AT: Time Skew
Time skews are good – they force aff strategic choices. 2. Time skews are inevitable because of things like the neg block and differences in speaking speed. 3. No time skew. They don’t have to spend any more time than us on the flow. 4. Not unique – we can always kick out of arguments. 5. Reciprocal – Theory skews our time.
AT: Strategy Skew
Make them name one important argument we deny them on any flow. 2. Not unique – every neg strategy aims at interfering with the aff’s strategy. 3. Turn – kicking the counterplan is key to our strategy.
AT: Neg Advocacy
They’ll know our precise advocacy in the 2NR, and they get a speech to answer it. 2. We don’t get infinite prep – we need flexible advocacy to respond to their highly strategic answers. 3. Absolute advocacy destroys the search for the best policy option. We must be able to negate the aff in more ways than one.
AT: Multiple perms
We have conditional worlds, she can perm as many times as she wants 2. Add ons check
Not a voter - Search for the best policy option. Any preferable advocacy the aff impedes is just another reason not to vote for it. 2. Aff Strategic Thinking. Forces the aff to pick arguments and gauge their 2AC time carefully. – best for education
In the end, there is a deep risk that Goldsmith’s new constraints will not AND , the Executive may end up with less power than it truly needs.
Plan and perm are Acquiescence in face of statutory restriction which ensures spillover gutting prez power – only counterplan alone maintains credible claim that restraint is a matter of comity rather than submission to authority
Posner and Vermeule, 8 Eric A. Posner + 26 Adrian Vermeule, Professor of Law, University of Chicago, Professor of Law, Harvard Law School, U Penn LR, April, lexis *edited for gendered language
In many historical cases, Congress and the President agree about the policy outcome but AND to testify even when testimony would be in his short-term interest.
The permutation ruins the fine balancing act and allows Congress to enact overbroad restrictions on presidential authority
President Barack Obama, who pledged to push his second-term domestic agenda through AND the past—a message the president delivered in a speech in May.
10/5/13
1NR
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 7 | Opponent: Georgetown EM | Judge: Kyle Deming On perm do both: Doesn’t shield the link to politics—- -Legislation is a link- process drains capital and causes agenda crowd out -Still a loss- perception matters- perm looks like Obama compliance with Congressional restraints
On do the cp: They sever USFG —- a. The means whole Merriam Websters ~http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/the~~ 4—used as a function word before a noun or a substantivized adjective to indicate reference to a group as a whole the elite
b. That means all 3 branches have to act Blacks Law ’90? (p. 695)? In the United States, government consists of the executive, legislative, and judicial branches in addition to administrative agencies. In a broader sense, includes the federal government and all its agencies and bureaus, state and county governments, and city and township governments. Severance is a voter – skews neg strat, ground, are unpredictable, make the 1ac a moving target which is uniquely bad because plan is focus of entire debate 2ac clarifications of the actor are bad – skew 1nc strategy, make the plan a moving target, encourages vague plan writing – it’s a voter for ground
Solves signal Executive action solves signal- public and foreign states rely of the President’s actions to determine policy Jide Nzelibe, Assistant Professor of Law, Northwestern University Law School. B.A. 1993, St. John’s College; M.P.A. 1995, Princeton; J.D. 1998, Yale, March 2006 " Positive Theory of the War-Powers Constitution" 91 Iowa L. Rev. 993
The notion that the President is the sole organ of communication in foreign affairs is AND President free rein to tackle the foreign menace as he sees fit. n40 On object fiat: No link- doesn’t fiat the object of the resolution- that’s executive AUTHORITY which the CP explicitly doesn’t do- CP leaves executive authority in place but ends the use of that authority Neg flex- key to test the central question in the resolution- should authority be reduced and how Increases education- allows debates about the processes to restrict executive authority- causes topic innovation and education about executive power scholarship Fiona De Londras, UCD School of Law, UCD Institute of Criminology, University College, and Fergal F. Davis, Lancaster University School of Law, "Controlling the Executive in Times of Terrorism: Competing Perspectives on Effective Oversight Mechanisms", Oxford Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 30, No. 1 (2010), pp. 19–47
Ron Wyden, a liberal Democrat from Oregon who is a member of the Senate AND partisan warfare within the legislature, is unlikely to subside any time soon.
Epic fiasco. The immigration fight turns ugly, poisoning the well for any compromise AND , and frantic finger pointing ensues. Chance of this happening: 25 On trigger debate: Debt ceiling most likely scenario for economic collapse- triggers T-bill sell off, boom and bust cycle and budget collapse- it’s perception based- ends foreign investment- controls all possible internal links to the econ Extinction Auslin 9 (Michael, Resident Scholar – American Enterprise Institute, and Desmond Lachman – Resident Fellow – American Enterprise Institute, "The Global Economy Unravels", Forbes, 3-6, http://www.aei.org/article/100187) What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression AND may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang. Impact debate: C/a analysis from overview
10/6/13
2NC
Tournament: GSU | Round: 5 | Opponent: Houston JR | Judge: Jordan Foley
Ext. Link
Nukes are key- conventional deterrence won’t work
Joseph and Reichart 1999 (Robert G. and John F., Deterrence and Defense, Director, Center for Counterproliferation Research, and Professor of National Security Studies at the National War College, National Defense University; and Deputy Director of the Center for Counterproliferation Research, a member of the National War College faculty, and a Senior Research Professor, National Defense University, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA40220626Location=U226doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) U.S. superiority in conventional forces cannot be expected in all circumstances to deter war, or the use of NBC weapons after war has begun. Thus, although the role of U.S. nuclear weapons in a regional context has not been precisely defined, nuclear weapons remain the ultimate sanction and a vital element of deterring NBC use. For this reason, it is necessary to resist further attempts to delegitimize U.S. possession and potential use of nuclear weapons.
First-use posture key to deter bioweapon attacks
Perry 2009 (William, former secretary of defense, HEARING OF THE SENATE COMMITTEE ON ARMED SERVICES; SUBJECT: THE REPORT OF THE CONGRESSIONAL COMMISSION ON THE STRATEGIC POSTURE OF THE UNITED STATES; Federal News Service, May 7, lexis) Well, besides the danger of nuclear weapons, there’s also a danger of biological AND to. So we did not want to abandon it for that reason.
Threat of nuclear retaliation is key to prevent CBW attacks- empirically proven
Reiter 2006 (Dr. Dan, Department of Political Science at Emory, PREVENTIVE ATTACKS AGAINST NUCLEAR, BIOLOGICAL, AND CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAMS: THE TRACK RECORD, working paper from the Matthew B. Ridgway Center for International Security Studies at the University of Pittsburgh, http://www.ridgway.pitt.edu/docs/working_papers/hittingfirst/Reiter20formatted20final.pdf) Fortunately, there are sound, cost-effective alternatives to preventive attacks that address AND could have deterred Iraq into the future without launching a preventive attack.70
Nuclear threats solve CBW use and prolif
Reiter 2006 (Dr. Dan, Department of Political Science at Emory, PREVENTIVE WAR AND ITS ALTERNATIVES: THE LESSONS OF HISTORY, April, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA44630626Location=U226doc=GetTRDoc.pdf) Iraq aside, neither North Korea, Syria, Cuba, Libya, nor Iran AND , and sanctions occasionally fail to prevent a state from acquiring NBC weapons.
No first use kills deterrent credibility and leads to CBW prolif and use
Utgoff 1997 (Dr. Victor A., deputy director of the Strategy, Forces and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Nuclear Weapons and the Deterrence of Biological and Chemical Warfare, Occasional Paper No. 36 October, Stimson Center, http://www.stimson.org/wmd/pdf/utgoff.pdf) Foreign policy considerations could also work to motivate nuclear retaliation in some situations. Failure AND object lesson for those who might consider CB use in the future.17
Utgoff 1997 (Dr. Victor A., deputy director of the Strategy, Forces and Resources Division of the Institute for Defense Analyses, Nuclear Weapons and the Deterrence of Biological and Chemical Warfare, Occasional Paper No. 36 October, Stimson Center, http://www.stimson.org/wmd/pdf/utgoff.pdf) The paper concludes with four implications of this analysis. First, any prewar declaration AND would be more than just a possibility, whatever promises had been made.
US will ignore the plan if a bioattack happens
Sagan 2000 (Scott D., Associate Professor of Political Science and Co-Director of the Center for International Security and Cooperation at Stanford, The Commitment Trap, International Security, Vol. 24, No. 4, Spring, http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/016228800560318?cookieSet=1) This recommended change in U.S. policy would produce three benefits and entail AND U.S. officials stated about American nuclear doctrine ahead of time.
CP
The Ghallager evidence they read is NOT in the context of NFU or nuclear policy in general it is about hostilities, deployments – we read it in our aff
Their Card: Without a policy of no first use American proliferation leadership is doomed to failure. This will collapse the 2015 NPT review conference.
The timing of this intervention may seem peculiar. It was only three years ago AND U.S. policy and possible alternatives may encourage movement in this direction
AT: Rollback- General
Our interpretation of fiat is that it ensures that the ACTION of the plan and the counterplan is durable but implementation is a solvency question
Only the CP solves rollback- fiats executive compliance- the aff can only fiat a reduction of authority- not a reduction of use
The second presidential advantage in the institutional setting is the ability to act first AND that body’s collective nature and inherent bias toward not changing the status quo.
AND- none of their rollback evidence contextualizes to the executive RESTRAINING their power- it’s only about expansive use of executive power- other branches would obviously not question the CP- content matters
What is likely to happen in Congress, then, when presidents take unilateral action AND result, be able to defend or promote its institutional power very effectively.
No rollback- 5 warrants
Stare decisis, path dependence, status quo bias, transaction costs, bureaucracy Rebecca Ingber, Associate Research Scholar, Columbia Law School; 2011-2012 Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow and Hertog National Security Law Fellow, Columbia Law School, "Interpretation Catalysts and Executive Branch Legal Decisionmaking" Summer 2013, 38 Yale J. Int’l L. 359
Executive branch decisionmaking typically moves at a glacial pace. Significant shifts in the executive’s AND the first place, and the resistance of government bureaucracy to change. n26
Announcement Solves
All 2ac solvency deficits are solved by Obama publicly renouncing his legal authority - the distinction is key
President Obama’s surprise announcement that he will ask Congress for approval of a military attack AND law as countless other presidents and their lawyers have described it before him.
Speeches prove the CP solves better
Rebecca Ingber, Associate Research Scholar, Columbia Law School; 2011-2012 Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow and Hertog National Security Law Fellow, Columbia Law School, "Interpretation Catalysts and Executive Branch Legal Decisionmaking" Summer 2013, 38 Yale J. Int’l L. 359
As a catalyst over which executive officials exercise significant control, speechmaking is explicitly used AND one of the most instrumental catalysts available for high-level executive officials.
Congressional Follow-On
CP causes Congressional follow-on but avoids politics
Cyberattacks present a challenge for U.S. policymakers: they are difficult to AND nature of cyberoperations before passing detailed statutes that may result in unintended consequences.
Not surprisingly, there are private sector analogues, too. Industries and trade¶ AND the Executive likely preferred. See supra note 290 and¶ accompanying text.
Aff Fails 2NC – Congress
Err neg on solvency questions- aff evidence is faulty scholarship- restrictions fail
Moe and Howell 99 ~Terry, prof of political science @ Stanford, and William, Associate Prof @ Harvard, "The Presidental Power of Unilateral Action"~
This is only an illustration based on a simple model that leaves out key aspects AND systematically overstate Congress’s capacity for taking strategic action, and understate presidential power.
CP solves better- statutory is bound to fail and makes the impacts worse- executive exploits increasing Congressional limits
Moe and Howell 99 ~Terry, prof of political science @ Stanford, and William, Associate Prof @ Harvard, "The Presidental Power of Unilateral Action"~
While Congress will sometimes have incentives to make broad delegations, legislators are more often AND use statutory constraints with great effectiveness in restricting the expansion of presidential power.
9/22/13
2NC
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 1 | Opponent: Texas FM | Judge: Ryan Wash Prediction-Skeptism disad. We’re accurate-enough and they kill relevance.
Chernoff 9, Fred, European Journal of International Relations 2009 15: 157, “Conventionalism as an Adequate Basis for Policy-Relevant IR Theory,” Chernoff is a current Professor of IR at Colgate University but previously taught at Wesleyan, Brown, and Yale. PhD from Johns Hopkins and Yale. Worked for Rand Corporation, International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, and Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Rationalist scholars rarely note the problem that prediction–scepticism¶ creates for the empirical AND (3) that are not possible even in some natural sciences.15
( ) doesn’t mean inaccurate. If there’s some bias, forecasters can account for it and still predict.
Ascher ‘78 William, Professor of Government and Economics at Claremont McKenna College, former Academic Vice Preisdent and Dean of the Faculty. Current member of the World Bank’s Advisory Group on the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative. Ph.D from Yale. “Forecasting: An Appraisal for Policy-Makers and Planners” p.7 Forecasts, or indeed any of the work of specialists, can be evaluated as AND , and the nature of the phenomena underlying the trend may be relevant.
Linear models work and the alt models won’t ever get used.
Doran ‘99 Charles F. Doran is a Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies (in D.C.) Professor of IR, former Professor at Rice, and a PhD in PoliSci from Johns Hopkins – International Studies Review, Vol. 1, No. 2, Prospects for International Relations: Conjectures about the Next Millennium (Summer, 1999), pp. 11-41,
Linear Forecasts: The Past as Prologue Straight-line, linear extrapolation of past AND , the results can be very support-ive of the forecasting problematique.
President Obama’s surprise announcement that he will ask Congress for approval of a military attack AND law as countless other presidents and their lawyers have described it before him. First- fiat solves- CP fiats executive compliance and action Second- this links MORE to the aff- they can’t fiat the executive and all our case args prove it’s likely- the plans durable fiat is only about restricting executive power and doesn’t extend to actually ending use- ONLY THE CP solves Third- Self-restraint solves- creates compliance costs and causes President to err against aggressive actions Nathan Alexander Sales Assistant Professor of Law, George Mason University School of Law, 7-2-2012 “Self-Restraint and National Security” online
The utility functions of government officials famously include a wide¶ range of values. AND enhancing even¶ when policymakers and reviewers regard the same mission as welfarereducing. Doesn’t trigger any of the partisanship links Michael Cohen is regular writer and commentator on American politics and U.S. foreign policy. He is the author of Live from the Campaign Trail: The Greatest Presidential Campaign Speeches of the 20th Century and How They Shaped Modern America (Walker Books, 2008), as well as a columnist the Guardian newspaper. He previously wrote a weekly column forForeign Policy and was a blogger for the New York Daily News. Formerly he was a senior fellow at the New America Foundation and the American Security Project. He also served in the U.S. Department of State as chief speechwriter for U.S. Representative to the United Nations Bill Richardson and Undersecretary of State Stuart Eizenstat. He has worked at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and was chief speechwriter for Senator Chris Dodd (D-CT). 3-28-2012 http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/03/28/power_grab?page=0,0
What has been Congress's response to this disregarding of its role in foreign policy AND little political incentive for either Democrats or Republicans to say enough is enough. Aff Fails 2NC – Congress Err neg on solvency questions- aff evidence is faulty scholarship- restrictions fail Moe and Howell 99 Terry, prof of political science @ Stanford, and William, Associate Prof @ Harvard, “The Presidental Power of Unilateral Action”
This is only an illustration based on a simple model that leaves out key aspects AND systematically overstate Congress's capacity for taking strategic action, and understate presidential power. Turns Presidential Powers
Large scale terrorist attack would give the president unprecedented authority – impact is constitutional dictatorship Dean 2(John, previously counsel to the Nixon administration, Chief Minority Counsel to the Judiciary Committee of the United States House of Representatives, the Associate Director of a law reform commission, and Associate Deputy Attorney General of the United States, FindLaw, “PRESIDENTIAL POWERS IN TIMES OF EMERGENCY: Could Terrorism Result In A Constitutional Dictator?” June 7, http://writ.news.findlaw.com/dean/20020607.html) At present, the President has opted to exercise only a few of his emergency AND is devastating, the pressure to resort to constitutional dictatorship may be irresistible.
Large scale terrorist attack would push authority back to the president Carter et al 98(Ashton, Former Co-Director, Preventive Defense Project, Harvard and Stanford Universities, John M. Deutch, International Council Member, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Philip D. Zelikow, Former Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School; Former Faculty Affiliate, International Security Program, “Catastrophic Terrorism: Tackling the New Danger,” Foreign Affairs, http://belfercenter.hks.harvard.edu/publication/652/catastrophic_terrorism.html) If the U.S. government learned that a large-scale attack of AND role. The FBI neither commands the resources nor plans to command them.
Impact – Economy/Trade A nuclear terrorist attack would wreck economy and global trade Allison 8(Graham, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government, “Nuclear Deterrence in the Age of Nuclear Terrorism,” October 20, http://www.technologyreview.com/article/411022/nuclear-deterrence-in-the-age-of-nuclear-terrorism/page/3/) No one who has examined the evidence has any doubt that al?Qaeda is AND he observed, create “a second death toll throughout the developing world.”
10/5/13
2NC
Tournament: Kentucky | Round: 4 | Opponent: Missouri State HR | Judge: Sarah Weiner
Fill In
2NC Must Read UQ/Link/Impact
Military transitioning away from big footprint tactics now because of drone fill in but there’s still time to reverse the trend – funding makes the tradeoff direct, long term and causes land power to be ineffective
SYDNEY J. FREEDBERG JR. 8/28/13 (covers homeland-security policy, interagency coordination, and military reform for National Journal, deputy editor of breaking defense, breaking defense, "Why The Army Matters: Human Factors And Killing" http://breakingdefense.com/2013/08/28/people-skills-killing-skills-the-armys-new-case-for-relevance/) FORT BELVOIR: The intellectual ice is beginning to break. You could see it at the Fort Belvoir Officers’ Club on Tuesday afternoon, where the Army’s Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) hosted a three-day, tri-service conference on "Strategic Landpower."
The US Army is wrestling with how to stay relevant once large-scale counterinsurgency AND several years financing the lure of strike, the ground capability would wither."
Yemen Link
Drone strikes in Yemen effectively suppress AQAP – key to prevent AQAP overthrow of the government and a major terror attack – both force US intervention in Yemen which turns the case
Also in Yemen – Strikes Solve – Terror/Yemen Collapse Andrew Terrill 3/13/13 (SI’s Middle East specialist. Prior to his appointment, he served as a Middle East nonproliferation analyst for the International Assessments Division of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). In 1998-99, Dr. Terrill also served as a Visiting Professor at the U.S. Air War College on assignment from LLNL. He is a former faculty member at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, and has taught adjunct at a variety of other colleges and universities. He is a retired U.S. Army Reserve Lieutenant Colonel and Foreign Area Officer (Middle East)., Strategic Studies Institute, United States Army War College, "Op-Ed: Drones Are Making A Difference In Yemen" http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Drones-Are-Making-A-Difference-In-Yemen/2013/03/13-http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/index.cfm/articles/Drones-Are-Making-A-Difference-In-Yemen/2013/03/13)
At least in the case of Yemen, drones appear to have been stunningly successful AND be kept open to avoid the need for much more frightening choices later.
Pak Army Module
The plan either forces US or Pakistani boots on the ground
PTVN 2/6/13 (PTV News, Pakistani television news, interview between anchor Faisal Rehman and retired Pakistani Air Vice Marshal, Shezhad Chaudhry, BBC monitoring south Asia, "Analyst says US statement on legality of drone strikes hurt Pakistani sentiment" lexis)
~Anchor Moona Habib~ Do you think that the drone strikes, which started AND a given area of combat only or in a given area of conflict.
Ending drone strikes forces the Pakistani army to intervene – causes regional instability
Left unstated in the report, though, is a bigger question: is there AND in general. Without a better alternative, drones are here to stay.
Land power fill in – Link/Heg IL
Drones tradeoff with large footprint – prevents war weariness necessary to maintain heg
James Igoe Walsh September 2013 (Professor of Political Science at the University of North AND "THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DRONE STRIKES IN COUNTERINSURGENCY AND COUNTERTERRORISM CAMPAIGNS" pdf)
A large body of research concludes that the deaths of American military personnel in combat AND , their use could reduce the need for large numbers of ground troops.
Host country turn
Increasing host country cooperation results in ineffective strikes – skewed intel, local objectives, incentives to not destroy all insurgency, makes the host country not deploy their own forces
James Igoe Walsh September 2013 (Professor of Political Science at the University of North AND "THE EFFECTIVENESS OF DRONE STRIKES IN COUNTERINSURGENCY AND COUNTERTERRORISM CAMPAIGNS" pdf)
Such an expansion of targets poses risks for the ability to effectively target members of AND taking steps that the United States considers more effective in countering local insurgencies.
Separation of Powers Frontline
No impact to SOP
Lovell, 00 (George I. Lovell, Assistant Professor of Government, College of William and Mary, Constitutional Commentary, Spring, 2000 (17 Const. Commentary 79)
The non-delegation doctrine is presented by many of its proponents as a tool AND that they can be held directly accountable for the choices that they make.
No Impact – SOP is constantly changing
Hamilton, 4 (Lee, (D) Congressman from Indiana, Chairman of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, How Congress Works and Why You Should Care)
We live in an era that is more difficult to categorize. On the one AND so even the line between the government and the private sector is eroding.
No spillover
Devins, 9 (Neal Devins, Law Prof @ William and Mary, Willamette Law Review, Spring, 2009)
Before turning to Part I, let me clarify two points that underlie the analysis AND not try to establish a point that I have made several times before.
Should we dismiss these statements just because President Bush is so brazen in his claims AND is calling for a radical shift in the system of checks and balances.
In February 2003, a new legislative draft came to light. Nicknamed ’Patriot II’ AND was a theme extending far beyond operations expressly directed at a terrorist threat.
Turns Yemen Recruitment
US boots on the ground in Yemen causes massive AQAP recruitment
The United States has had some recent experience fighting a similar foe: al Qaeda AND AQAP would move from a few thousand fighters to many times that number.
in•crease ~ in kr?ss ~ transitive and intransitive verb (past and past participle in•creased, present participle in•creas•ing, 3rd person present singular in•creas•es)Definition: make or become larger or greater: to become, or make something become, larger in number, quantity, or degree noun (plural in•creas•es)
They are not T
Their card, their restrictions in place now
Anthony Dworkin 13, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, "Drones And Targeted Killing: Defining A European Position", July, http://ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR84_DRONES_BRIEF.pdf-http://ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR84_DRONES_BRIEF.pdf Second, the day before his speech, Obama set out regulations for drone strikes AND "near certainty that non-combatants will not be injured or killed".
Daskal Double Bind
If the administration has been following the aff plan since 06, they have no unique reason why the aff is key to solve OR they link to war power
And, doesn’t answer perception link, that’s Newton
Flexibility – legislation ties the President’s had and ensures military ineffectiveness Scowcroft 93 (Brent, Arnold, National Security Adviser Under Bush I and Ford, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs in Bush I, The Washington Post, "Foreign Policy Straightjacket", 10/20/1993, p. lexis) Maneuvering in the complex environment of a Somalia — or of a Haiti, Bosnia AND than ever, trying to legislate foreign policy is simply a bad idea.
Politicization – kills morale and destroys war-fighting ability
Newton 12 – prof of law @ Vanderbilt (Michael, CASE WESTERN RESERVE JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL LAW•VOL. 45, Inadvertent Implications of the War Powers Resolution) Finally, the War Powers Resolution has the pernicious effect of incentivizing commanders to adopt AND success in ways that its drafters would certainly not have foreseen or sought.
Warfighting Turns Case
Maintaining warfighting capabilities key to deter Chinese invasion of the South China Seas Glaser 12, CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies (Bonnie, Pivot to Asia: Prepare for Unintended Consequences, http://csis.org/files/publication/120413_gf_glaser.pdf) Under the current administration, the pendulum in U.S. policy toward China AND also will need to maintain the military capabilities necessary to deter Chinese aggression.
TO MOBILIZE MULTILATERAL SUPPORT AND INSTITUTIONS – INTERNAL LINK TURNING ALL OFFENSE
DEANS 00. ~Bob, White House correspondernt for Cox Newspapers. "The American Presidency: White House Power Growing," AJC — 1/23 — lexis~ As President Clinton prepares to deliver the State of the Union address Thursday, officially AND new book, ’’A Century’s Journey,’’ that elaborates on the theme.
1NC
No causal link between U.S. drone doctrine and other’ countries choices—-means can’t set a precedent
Kenneth Anderson 11, Professor of International Law at American University, 10/9/11, "What Kind of Drones Arms Race Is Coming?," http://www.volokh.com/2011/10/09/what-kind-of-drones-arms-race-is-coming/~~23more-51516-http://www.volokh.com/2011/10/09/what-kind-of-drones-arms-race-is-coming/ New York Times national security correspondent Scott Shane has an opinion piece in today’s Sunday AND long one, starting with China. The predicament is put this way: Eventually, the United States will face a military adversary or terrorist group armed with AND perceived enemies, even American citizens, who are viewed as a threat. "Is this the world we want to live in?" asks Micah Zenko, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "Because we’re creating it." By asserting that "we’re" creating it, this is a claim that there AND that Anwar al-Awlaki was, in objective terms, our enemy?) It sounds like it must be true. But is it? There are a AND what I think the real "arms race" surrounding drones will be. Unmanned aerial vehicles have clearly got a big push from the US military in the AND substantial state that feels like developing them will be able to do so. But the point is that this was happening anyway, and the technology was already AND do their own amateur version, putting some kind of bomb on it. Moving on from the avionics, weaponizing the craft is also not difficult. The AND states competing to come up with weapons technologies that are … more discriminating.
All this said, Europe also has some tough decisions to make, and it is unclear whether European countries are ready to take a hard look at their views about drone strikes, addressing any weaknesses or inconsistencies in their own position. If they are, the next few years could offer a breakthrough in developing international standards for the use of this new kind of weapon, before the regular use of drones spreads across the globe.
Circ 2NC Extension – Definitions Link
BEGGING for circumvention – real time battlefield assessments and no stable legal basis means Assessment of "first" and "last" resort changes BY THE MINUTE
Next, if the court’s jurisdiction is limited to U.S. citizens, AND believe we will also discourage the type of continual reevaluation I’m referring to.
Aff use of "zone of active hostilities" guarantees circumvention-
