Tournament: UMKC | Round: 2 | Opponent: Concordia KS | Judge: Weathers
Plan Flaw 1nc

1st off is plan flaw:

1. Affirmative plan states that the federal government “should” increase investment in _.  

“Should” is a word of probability does not mean will or must, only “ought to but not necessarily will.”

Compact Oxford English Dictionary, 07, (http://www.askoxford.com/concise_oed/should?view=uk) (HARVAF3780)

should   - modal verb (3rd sing. should) 1 used to indicate obligation, duty, or correctness. 2 used to indicate what is probable. 3 formally expressing the conditional mood. 4 used in a clause with ‘that’ after a main clause describing feelings. 5 used in a clause with ‘that’ expressing purpose. 6 (in the first person) expressing a polite request or acceptance. 7 (in the first person) expressing a conjecture or hope.

Should is not  guarantee of action.  If the affirmative had wanted to ensure that the United States Federal Government would _they would have used the words “will” or “must.”  Without such words they cannot guarantee that any action is taken at all.

2. The affirmative is allowed a fiat power to ensure that their plan is established.  No more.  Their plan, as written, becomes law.  If the plan, as written, is flawed, it is the flawed plan that is fiated into action.

3. This flaw mitigates affirmative solvency, or failing a complete mitigation still introduces doubt about whether the affirmative plan will do anything.  Remember, the affirmative’s fiat power is limited to enacting their plan as written, not to enacting and re-writing their plan into the best possible wording.  We must rely upon the text of the plan, that and only that is what is fiated into existence.

4. Do not let the affirmative claim any solvency—“should” is no guarantee of any action, it is only a hope.  I should watch what I eat and do my homework, but that is no guarantee that I will do either.

5. Do not allow any lee-way or shifting of the affirmative position or solvency mechanism.  The affirmative could have easily dealt with this plan flaw by using the words “will” or “must” instead of should.  Don’t punish the negative team for the aff’s flaw by allowing them new answers or the ability to re-write or change their plan text.  This was a one-word fix and the affirmative failed to do that fix.  The affirmative’s sloppy grammar means only one thing—their ambiguous plan text must be rejected.
6. Vote negative.  No plan means no policy, no affirmation of the resolution.  You cannot vote affirmative when the affirmative has no policy proposal.

Dip cap 1nc
Assad will win the war- rebels are losing and multilateral support is unlikely
Sobel, 13 (Max, Fourth year politics student at the University of Nottingham, with a penchant for world affairs, “Syrian Civil War- Rebels Have Little Hope Left”, 7/29/13, http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/max-sobell/syria-war-rebels_b_3671463.html)

Changes in detention policies will boost diplomatic capital
Wagner 10 (Coleman, Department of Political Science, College of Arts and
Sciences, “Soft Power and International Public Opinion: U.S Presidents and the Treatment of PrisonersofWar”,http://web3.unt.edu/honors/eaglefeather/wpcontent/2009/08/Wagner_Coleman.pdf, 2010, August 19, 2013, clarson clarson)

That support leads to a multilateral military intervention in Syria- only scenario for conflict
Stewart and Apps, 13 (Phil and Peter, Reuters, “Analysis: No good military options for U.S. in Syria”, 4/27/13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/27/us-usa-syria-military-options-idUSBRE93Q0C620130427)

Syrian intervention causes chemical weapon attacks, middle east instability, Iran prolif, ethnic cleansing, and US- Russia proxy wars- all escalate to nuclear conflict
Strauss, 12 (Steve, Advanced leadership fellow Harvard University, “Ten Reasons We Should Be Cautious About Military Intervention in Syria“¨, 6-9-12, , http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-strauss/nine-reasons-we-should-be-cautious_b_1583732.html=

1NC Soft Power
1) Soft power is low now.
Hadas 12 (Edward, Reuters Breakingviews columnist, “Soft power is priceless – and scarce”, Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2012/11/19/soft-power-is-priceless-and-scarce/, November 19, 2012, August 19, 2013, clarson clarson) 

2) Link – 

Indefinite detention kills soft power
Wagner 10 (Coleman, Department of Political Science, College of Arts and
Sciences, “Soft Power and International Public Opinion: U.S Presidents and the Treatment of PrisonersofWar”,http://web3.unt.edu/honors/eaglefeather/wpcontent/2009/08/Wagner_Coleman.pdf, 2010, August 19, 2013, clarson clarson)

3) Internal Link – Soft Power is a form of Cultural Imperialism and Colonization- It Attempts to make the Empire Easier to Swallow
James Petras 2004, Professor of Sociology at Suny- Binghamton  The Challenge of the New Colonization of Education: ALCA And Pedagogy For Oppression, http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=6703

4) Impact – This cultural whitewashing is the worst form of colonialism- this perpetuates structural violence—it outweighs war and their one-shot advantage.
Russel Lawrence Barsh, 1993Professor of Native American Studies at the University of Lethbridge and United Nations Representative of the Mikmaq Grand Council and Four Directions Council, (“The Challenge Of Indigenous Self-Determination,” University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform (26 U. Mich. J.L. Reform 277), Winter, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via Lexis-Nexis)

5) The role of the ballot is to ensure cultural survival – It’s a D-Rule given its implicit relation to human survival
Patrick J. Deneen, 2008Associate Professor of Government and Markos and Eleni Tsakopoulos-Kounalakis Chair in Hellenic Studies at Georgetown University, Director of the Tocqueville Forum on the Roots of American Democracy,  (“Technology, Culture, and Virtue," The New Atlantis, Number 21, Summer, Available Online at http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/technology-culture-and-virtue)

Tournament: umkc | Round: 4 | Opponent: k-state ka | Judge: jared fanning
Reality check:

1. Try or die impact calculus is inflated by cognitive bias
   Sunstein ‘2 Cass, Karl N. Llewellyn Distinguished Service Professor, University of Chicago, Law School and Department of Political Science, Probability Neglect: Emotions, Worst Cases, and Law, http://www.yalelawjournal.org/pdf/112-1/SunsteinFINAL.pdf//GBS-JV

2. Great power war is improbable – global institutions, interdependence, the internet, fiscal constraints and nuclear deterrence
Robb ’12 Doug, Lieutenant in the US Navy, “Now Hear This - Why the Age of Great-Power War Is Over” http://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2012-05/now-hear-why-age-great-power-war-over//GBS-JV

3. The impossibility of territorial control, dependence on global institutions, energy and environmental issues all foster cooperation, not war
Deudney and Ikenberry 2009 (Daniel Deudney is Professor of Political Science at Johns Hopkins University and the author of Bounding Power: Republican Security Theory From the Polis to the Global Village. G. John Ikenberry is Albert G. Milbank Professor of Politics and International Affairs at Princeton University, a Global Eminence Scholar at Kyung Hee University, and the author of After Victory: Institutions, Strategic Restraint, and the Rebuilding of Order After Major Wars. “The Myth of the Autocratic Revival: Why Liberal Democracy Will Prevail” Foreign Affairs) 

4. The nuclear taboo prevents use
Perkovich 2009 George Perkovich served as a speechwriter and foreign policy adviser to Senator Joe Biden from 1989 to 1990. Perkovich is an adviser to the International Commission on Nuclear Non-proliferation and Disarmament and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations' Task Force on U.S. Nuclear Policy.  “EXTENDED DETERRENCE ON THE WAY TO A NUCLEAR-FREE WORLD” http://icnnd.org/Documents/Perkovich_Deterrence.pdf//GBS-JV

5. Their authors are biased to believe peace in international politics is impossible
FETTWEIS 2006Christopher J. (National Security Decision Making Department) US Naval War College International Studies Review  8, 677–697 4. ASP

AND – Even the creators of nuclear winter theory acknowledge that nuclear war could never wipe out everyone
Robock ’10 Alan, Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, “Nuclear Winter,” WIREs Climate Change, May/June, Wiley Online Library via University of Michigan LibrariesGBS-JV

The Robock studies assume 5,000 megatons are used – that’s 95 of the total world arsenal which means it’s only credible with a US-Russian war using 100 of current arsenals
Robock et al ‘7 Alan Robock Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Luke Oman Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA Now at Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Georgiy L. Stenchikov Department of Environmental Sciences, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA, “Nuclear winter revisited with a modern climate model and current nuclear arsenals: Still catastrophic consequences,” JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, July 6, American Geophysical Union via University of North Carolina LibrariesGBS-JV

But we won’t use them all and some won’t detonate
MARTIN 1982 (Dr Brian Martin is a physicist whose research interests include stratospheric modelling. He is a research associate in the Dept. of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Australian National University, Current Affairs Bulletin, December, http://www.uow.edu.au/arts/sts/bmartin/pubs/82cab/index.html)

AND – US would just first-strike – disables escalation
Lieber and Press ‘6 Keir A. Lieber, the author of War and the Engineers: The Primacy of Politics Over Technology, is Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame.Daryl G. Press, the author of Calculating Credibility: How Leaders Assess Military Threats, is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania, “The Rise of US Nuclear Primacy,” Foreign Affairs, March/April, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~dpress/docs/Press_Rise_US_Nuclear_Primacy_FA.pdf//GBS-JV

6. Any amount of defense takes out the aff – their model of risk assessment’s irrational
Hansson ‘5 Sven Ove Hansson, Professor in the Department of Philosophy and the History of Technology at the Royal Institute of Technology (Stockholm, Sweden), 2005 “The Epistemology of Technological Risk,” Techné: Research in Philosophy and Technology, Volume 9, Number 2, Winter, Available Online at http://scholar.lib.vt.edu/ejournals/SPT/v9n2/hansson.html, Accessed 10-08-2008

baudrillard K:
A.  The scenario for nuclear escalation and war they imagine will always be prevented by deterrence.  However, the fear of nuclear war is used to justify a state security apparatus that freezes the social and maintains a system of perfect control.
Baudrillard in 81 Jean, “Simulacra and Simulation” p. 32-35

B.  The true damage of nuclear weapons is not the war that could result, but in the fear and mental destruction that fear of them demands.  Instead of trying to avoid the catastrophe, we need to embrace its simulation and break the mental chains of deterrence.
Baudrillard in 81 Jean, “Simulacra and Simulation” p. 55-57

1NC Soft Power
4th off is soft power
1) Soft power is low now.
Hadas 12 (Edward, Reuters Breakingviews columnist, “Soft power is priceless – and scarce”, Reuters, http://blogs.reuters.com/breakingviews/2012/11/19/soft-power-is-priceless-and-scarce/, November 19, 2012, August 19, 2013, clarson clarson) 

2) Link –
Target Killing hurts soft power. Responsible use increases soft power

Neil Bhatiya, Century Foundation Policy Program Assistant and former Research Fellow for the Streit Council, Taking Note: Century Foundation, 1/19/10, http://takingnote.tcf.org/2010/01/more-drones-in-afghanistan-not-a-path-to-a-winning-strategy-.html

3) Internal Link – Soft Power is a form of Cultural Imperialism and Colonization- It Attempts to make the Empire Easier to Swallow
James Petras 2004, Professor of Sociology at Suny- Binghamton  The Challenge of the New Colonization of Education: ALCA And Pedagogy For Oppression, http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=6703

4) Impact – This cultural whitewashing is the worst form of colonialism- this perpetuates structural violence—it outweighs war and their one-shot advantage.
Russel Lawrence Barsh, 1993Professor of Native American Studies at the University of Lethbridge and United Nations Representative of the Mikmaq Grand Council and Four Directions Council, (“The Challenge Of Indigenous Self-Determination,” University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform (26 U. Mich. J.L. Reform 277), Winter, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via Lexis-Nexis)

5) The role of the ballot is to ensure cultural survival – It’s a D-Rule given its implicit relation to human survival
Patrick J. Deneen, 2008Associate Professor of Government and Markos and Eleni Tsakopoulos-Kounalakis Chair in Hellenic Studies at Georgetown University, Director of the Tocqueville Forum on the Roots of American Democracy,  (“Technology, Culture, and Virtue," The New Atlantis, Number 21, Summer, Available Online at http://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/technology-culture-and-virtue)