A declaration by Britain… and the Foreign Office view this.”
Only the plan can solve—acknowledging our own covert attacks establishes a norm that stops proliferation Goldsmith 10 Jack Goldsmith, teaches at Harvard Law School and is on the Hoover Institution's Task Force on National Security and Law. He was a member of a 2009 National Academies committee, “Can we stop the cyber arms race?” February 01, 2010, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2010-02-01/opinions/36895669_1_botnets-cyber-attacks-computer-attacks, KB)
In a speech this month on "Internet freedom… reciprocal concessions by our adversaries.
Congress must initiate a restriction – Failure irreversibly increases presidential power. Hansen and Friedman 9, Professors at the New England School of Law, (Victor and Lawrence, The Case for Congress: Separation of Powers and the War on Terror, p.130) The problem, of course, is that… and aggressive president.
Congressional oversight guarantees a cooperative framework which is key to cyber capabilities. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Congress obviously cannot… U.S. cybersecurity-related missions.”
Lack of oversight causes hair trigger alert. Morgan 2010 (Patrick M. Morgan, Tierney Chair, Peace and Conflict, Political Science School of Social Sciences PH.D., Yale University, “Applicability of Traditional Deterrence Concepts and Theory to the Cyber Realm,” Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyber Attacks, http://www.lawfareblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/morgan.pdf)
On the other hand, since they will likely… turned to a worst-case analysis.
Independently, Presidential control over OCOs drives a cyber-arms race and pre-emptive nuclear strikes. Rothschild 13, Editor of Progressive Magazine, Matthew Rothschild is the editor of The Progressive magazine, which is one of the leading voices for peace and social justice in this country. Rothschild has appeared on Nightline, C-SPAN, The O'Reilly Factor, and NPR, and his newspaper commentaries have run in the Chicago Tribune, the L.A. Times, the Miami Herald, and a host of other newspapers. Rothschild is the host of "Progressive Radio," a syndicated half-hour weekly interview program. And he does a two-minute daily radio commentary, entitled "Progressive Point of View," which is also syndicated around the country. Rothschild is the author of You Have No Rights: Stories of America in an Age of Repression (New Press, 2007). He also is the editor ofDemocracy in Print: The Best of The Progressive, 1909-2009(University of Wisconsin Press, 2009)., The Dangers of Obama’s Cyber War Power Grab, http://progressive.org/dangers-of-obama-cyber-war-power-grab There are no checks or balances… worry about the temptations of a President.
The arms race escalates A) Miscalc Rosenzweig 9, Professor at Georgetown Law (Paul, founder of Reid Branch Consulting, specializing in homeland security, senior advisor to the Chertoff Group, Carnegie Fellow at Northwestern, professor at National Defense University, Editorial board at the Journal of National Security Law and Policy, deputy assistant secretary for policy at the US Department of Homeland Security, "National Security Threatsin Cyberspace" merican Bar Association Standing Committee on Law andNational Security And National Strategy Forum, September 2009, www.utexas.edu/law/journals/tlr/sources/Issue2088.7/Jensen/fn137.Rosenwieg.pdf) Offensive dominance creates a… could also ignite a conflict.124 B) Third Parties Libicki 09 Matthew Libicki, Ph.D, senior management scientist at RAND, “CYBERDETERRENCE AND CYBERWAR,” 2009, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG877.pdf SJE
An exchange of cyberattacks between states… Do not even start because who knows where it will lead
Nuclear War Lawson, Professor of Communication at Utah, 09 (Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, 5/13, http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477) At a time when it seems impossible to avoid the seemingly… regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” 7
Extinction—Consensus of scientists. Hogan 94 Michael Hogan, American scholar and president of the University Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, The Nuclear Freeze Campaign, 1994, p. 52
In the fall of 1983, a group of scientists led by Carl Sagan… endorsed by a large number of scientists.” Advantage 2 The NSA scandal created an exodus of talent from the cyber industrial complex which endangers cyber security. Economist 13 Hiring digital 007s; Consultancies and spy chiefs¶ The Economist, June 15, 2013http:ic.galegroup.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ic/bic1/MagazinesDetailsPage/MagazinesDetailsWindow?failOverType=andquery=andwindowstate=normalandcontentModules=andmode=viewanddisplayGroupName=Magazinesandlimiter=andcurrPage=anddisableHighlighting=anddisplayGroups=andsortBy=andsource=andsearch_within_results=andaction=eandcatId=andactivityType=andscanId=anddocumentId=GALE7CA333726100¶ A new cyber-industrial complex is rising. Should you worry? ¶ "AT BOOZ ALLEN, we're shaping the future of cyber-security… they are more likely to take the threats seriously.
Its reverse causal—Congressional oversight creates the transparency key to recruiting. Hackers are calling for less presidential authority. Kar 13 US Government Wants to Win Hackers for Data Collection at Black Hat SAROJ KAR | AUGUST 5TH 13 Saroj is a Staff Writer at SiliconANGLE covering social and mobile news. http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/08/05/us-government-wants-to-win-hackers-for-data-collection-at-black-hat/ The head of the U.S. National Security… attempts to change hackers’ perception of the NSA, he should think about his perception of hackers.)
Absent the plan, the espionage scandal costs 15,000 recruits. Wyler 13 Without Def Con, the Feds Have a Hacker Recruitment Problem By Grace Wyler, 7/17/13 reporter/staff writer. http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/without-def-con-the-feds-have-a-hacker-recruitment-problem In addition to unveiling wholesale data collection systems… who tried to win over new recruits in 2009.
Bad or corrupt experts destroy cyber defense. Michaels 13 Tech hiring binge may pose security risks for government Jim Michaels, USA TODAY 1:18 a.m. EDT June 13, 2013 Edward Snowden is a high school dropout. How did he land a $122,000-a-year job in a sensitive government program? http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/12/hackers-cyber-nsa-intelligence/2413183/ WASHINGTON — Among the more curious revelations…"You don't think of yourself as a U.S. citizen."
Strong defense and homeland security solves cyber-attacks. McGraw 10 Gary McGraw Jun 17, 2010 Software Insecurity: Cyber War - Hype or Consequences? http://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=1597476 (Gary McGraw is the CTO of Cigital, Inc., a software security consulting firm with headquarters in the Washington, D.C. area and offices throughout the world. He is a globally recognized authority on software security. Dr. McGraw has also written over 100 peer-reviewed scientific publications.) You won't be surprised to hear me say that… filling out common criteria forms is not at all what I'm talking about. Cyber-attacks are up 680. FCW 12 Advisory website on federal business and technology 2012: The year in cybersecurity Dec 05, 201http:fcw.com/Articles/2012/12/05/2012-cybersecurity.aspx?Page=3 Cyberspace was more dangerous than ever in 2012… behind the scenes to find a way in.”
In a future conflict, an adversary unable… open to our cyber adversaries. This outweighs nuclear war. Information Week 7 Information Week June 02, 2007 The Impact Of Cyberwarfare http://www.informationweek.com/the-impact-of-cyberwarfare/199800131 Cyberwarfare: What will it look like… try and maintain services within the country.
Extinction Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic… economic-security debate and deserves more attention.
Cyber warfare is an existential risk Shimaell et. Al. 02 Timothy Shimaell, Phil Williams Casey Dunlevy 2002 Countering cyber war (Timothy Shimeall is a senior analyst with the CERT Analysis Center of Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, with specific interests in cyber war and cyber terrorism. Phil Williams, a former NATO fellow, is a profes- sor at the University of Pittsburgh and a visiting scientist at the CERT Analysis Center. Casey Dunlevy is a former intelligence analyst, and leads the CERT Analysis Center.) Denial-of-service attacks would… profound and far-reaching.
This means our impacts come first. Bostrom and Anderson 12 (Nick Bostrom, PhD in philosophy of science from the London School of Economics, professor of philosophy at Oxford, director of the Future of Humanity Institute, director of the Programme on the Impacts of Future Technology, recipient of the Eugene R Gannon Award, number 73 on Foreign Policy’s Top 100 Global Thinkers list, Ross Anderson, freelance writer, correspondent for the Atlantic, 3-6-12, “We’re Underestimating the Risk of Human Extinction,” http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/03/were-underestimating-the-risk-of-human-extinction/253821/) GZ
Some have argued that we ought… which would be tremendous under ordinary standards.
Plan Plan: The United States federal government should establish congressional oversight for its Offensive Cyber Operations in Operational Preparation of the Environment.
Solvency The military hides offensive cyber operations as “operational preparation of the environment” to keep them covert. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Another potential obstacle… might create dangerous confusion.
The plan prevents covert operations but creates flexibility. Dycus 10 s Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Set out below are some steps that Congress… out between the political branches.
10/6/13
1AC Cites UMKC
Tournament: UMKC | Round: 1 | Opponent: Pittsburgh CK | Judge: Regnier Plan Plan: The United States Congress should require consultation between the President of the United States and Congress prior to the use of Offensive Cyber Espionage in Operational Preparation of the Environment.
Our Advantage is the Cyber Industrial Complex The espionage scandal is creating an exodus of talent from the cyber industrial complex which endangers cyber security. Economist 13 Hiring digital 007s; Consultancies and spy chiefs¶ The Economist, June 15, 2013http:ic.galegroup.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ic/bic1/MagazinesDetailsPage/MagazinesDetailsWindow?failOverType=andquery=andwindowstate=normalandcontentModules=andmode=viewanddisplayGroupName=Magazinesandlimiter=andcurrPage=anddisableHighlighting=anddisplayGroups=andsortBy=andsource=andsearch_within_results=andaction=eandcatId=andactivityType=andscanId=anddocumentId=GALE7CA333726100¶ A new cyber-industrial complex is rising. Should you worry? ¶ and#34;AT BOOZ ALLEN … they are more likely to take the threats seriously. Leaks will continue. Wolfgang 13 Ben Wolfgang, June 30, and#34;Julian Assange, Edward Snowden promise more secrets will be revealedand#34;, www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/jun/30/julian-assange-there-no-stopping-edward-snowden-mo/?page=all WikiLeaks founder … eventually comes to light.¶ The military hides cyber operations as “operational preparation of the environment” to keep them covert. This is the root cause of the Snowden Scandal. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Another potential obstacle … might create dangerous confusion. Consultation solves—Prevents covert espionage but enables flexibility. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Set out below are some steps … must be worked out between the political branches. Its reverse causal—Congressional oversight creates the transparency key to recruiting. Hackers are calling for less presidential authority. Sarojkar 13 US Government Wants to Win Hackers for Data Collection at Black Hat SAROJ KAR | AUGUST 5TH 13 Saroj is a Staff Writer at SiliconANGLE covering social and mobile news. http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/08/05/us-government-wants-to-win-hackers-for-data-collection-at-black-hat/ The head of the U.S. National Security Agency … Perhaps before he attempts to change hackers’ perception of the NSA, he should think about his perception of hackers.) Absent the plan, the espionage scandal costs 15,000 recruits. Wyler 13 Without Def Con, the Feds Have a Hacker Recruitment Problem By Grace Wyler, 7/17/13 reporter/staff writer. http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/without-def-con-the-feds-have-a-hacker-recruitment-problem In addition to unveiling wholesale data collection systems … who tried to win over new recruits in 2009. The government is currently recruiting for the National Mission Force which will defend against cyber-attacks. Hayes 13 Seeking Hackers: The Military Aims to Recruit More Cyber Soldiers¶ The U.S. Cyber Command looks to add 4,000 cyber soldiers to boost its cyber-warfare efforts.¶ PATRICK HAYES¶ posted February 6, 2013 http://www.fedtechmagazine.com/article/2013/02/seeking-hackers-military-aims-recruit-more-cyber-soldiers The U.S. Cyber Command … on the information superhighway as well. The few good recruits go to the NSA for offense—DHS recruiting is key to defense. Boston Globe 13 US looks to recruit student hackers¶ Wants them to defend against foreign attacks¶ By Nicole Perlroth | NEW YORK TIMES MARCH 25, 2013 http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/03/24/looks-recruit-student-hackers-help-defend-nation-cyberspace/1YurGnlyEKgVP77zy1MQsK/story.html He was grounded and got detention. … keeping hackers out, or playing defense.¶ Strong defense solves cyber-attacks. McGraw 10 Gary McGraw Jun 17, 2010 Software Insecurity: Cyber War - Hype or Consequences? http://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=1597476 (Gary McGraw is the CTO of Cigital, Inc., a software security consulting firm with headquarters in the Washington, D.C. area and offices throughout the world. He is a globally recognized authority on software security. Dr. McGraw has also written over 100 peer-reviewed scientific publications.) You wonand#39;t be surprised to hear me say that … Just for the record, filling out common criteria forms is not at all what Iand#39;m talking about. The shortage forces the government to hire bad or corrupt defensive experts Michaels 13 Tech hiring binge may pose security risks for government Jim Michaels, USA TODAY 1:18 a.m. EDT June 13, 2013 Edward Snowden is a high school dropout. How did he land a $122,000-a-year job in a sensitive government program? http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/12/hackers-cyber-nsa-intelligence/2413183/ WASHINGTON — Among the more curious … and#34;You donand#39;t think of yourself as a U.S. citizen.and#34; Either scenario destroys cyber defense. USA Today 13 Snowden case: How low-level insider could steal from NSA Byron Acohido and Peter Eisler, USA TODAY 7:16 a.m. EDT June 12, 2013 http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/11/snowden-nsa-hacking-privileged-accounts/2412507/ Edward Snowdenand#39;s ability to extract … many privileged accounts as actual employees. Attacks will become increasingly destructive in the SQUO—Advances outpace our defenses. Business Insider 12 Business Insider Jul. 10, 2012 Pentagon Says Bureaucracy Is Getting In The Way Of Cyber Defense http://www.businessinsider.com/pentagon-says-bureaucracy-is-getting-in-the-way-of-cyber-defense-2012-7#ixzz22hjyjtVU The current head of the Pentagonand#39;s cyber attack … and each working for different goals. Cyber-attacks are up 680. FCW 12 Advisory website on federal business and technology 2012: The year in cybersecurity Dec 05, 201http:fcw.com/Articles/2012/12/05/2012-cybersecurity.aspx?Page=3 Cyberspace was more dangerous than ever in 2012. … if attackers can’t find a vulnerability, they stay hidden and keep looking behind the scenes to find a way in.” Scenario 1: Military Cyber-attacks shut down our military—It’s all been transferred to the internet. Samuelson 13 Samuelson: Internet Armageddon? RobertSamuelson, Times Dispatch | Posted: Monday, July 1, 2013 12:00 amhttp://www.timesdispatch.com/opinion/their-opinion/columnists-blogs/robert-samuelson/samuelson-internet-armageddon/article_34e6bb6a-e1cb-5d18-8db7-decf84abd790.html?mode=print By cyberwarfare, I mean … underestimated the risk of sabotage. We have three internal links. First is lash out The US will retaliate to damaging attacks cyber-attacks. Nakashima 11 Pentagon: Cyber offense part of U.S. strategy By Ellen Nakashima, November 15, 2011 http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2011-11-15/news/35284321_1_cyberspace-new-report-cyberwarfare The report is more explicit than the Pentagon’s cyberstrategy … in response to a hostile act in cyberspace. Use of America cyber weapons escalates to full blown cyber warfare Temple 12 James Temple—San Francisco Chronicle Published 4:00 a.m., Sunday, June 10, 2012 http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/In-waging-cyber-war-battlefield-becomes-blurred-3622760.php
An attack on another nationand#39;s centrifuges … all signs point to increasing cyber conflicts. Independently, US retaliation to cyber warfare goes nuclear. Lawson, Professor of Communication at Utah, 09 (Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, 5/13, http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477) At a time when it seems impossible to avoid the seemingly growing hysteria over the threat of cyber war… with a relatively small release of a lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” 7 Second, Miscalc—Vulnerabilities and tensions get exploited to start nuclear war. Fritz 09 Fritz ‘09, Jason, Researcher for International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament, Former Army Officer and Consultant, Master of Internation Relations at Bond University, “Hacking Nuclear Command and Control,” 2009. (http://icnnd.org/Documents/Jason_Fritz_Hacking_NC2.pdf.) This paper will analyse the threat of cyber terrorism … without the need for compromising command and control centres directly. Extinction—Consensus of scientists. Hogan 94 Michael Hogan, American scholar and president of the University Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, The Nuclear Freeze Campaign, 1994, p. 52
In the fall of 1983, a group of scientists led by Carl Sagan … endorsed by a large number of scientists.” Third is decapitation Bad Cyber Defenses enable decapitation of the government from the military. Paul Stockton 11, assistant secretary of defense for Homeland Defense and Americas’ Security Affairs, “Ten Years After 9/11: Challenges for the Decade to Come”, http://www.hsaj.org/?fullarticle=7.2.11
The cyber threat to the DIB is only part of a much larger challenge to DoD … – and never will – exercise control. Nuclear War Andres and Breetz 11 Richard Andres, Professor of National Security Strategy at the National War College and a Senior Fellow and Energy and Environmental Security and Policy Chair in the Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies, at the National Defense University, and Hanna Breetz, doctoral candidate in the Department of Political Science at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Small Nuclear Reactorsfor Military Installations:Capabilities, Costs, andTechnological Implications, www.ndu.edu/press/lib/pdf/StrForum/SF-262.pdf
The DOD interest in small reactors derives … to win an ongoing battle or war would be greatly reduced. Collapse of America from external factors causes global transition wars. Brzezinski ’05 Zbigniew was the National Security Advisor for the Carter Administration and former Professor of Foreign Policy at Johns Hopkins University, 2005, “The Choice: Global Domination or Global Leadership” History is a record of change, a reminder that nothing endures indefinitely … or from America’s global misuse of its own power.
and#34;The threat is extremely dire,” … missions around the world.” Cyber-attacks threaten our entire financial system. Tsai 12 Staff writer for Stars and Stripes.com Military among victims of SC revenue department cyberattackBy JOYCE TSAI Stars and Stripes Published: December 5, 2012www.stripes.com/news/military-among-victims-of-sc-revenue-department-cyberattack-1.199456 WASHINGTON – Military members … protect customers from cyberattack. This outweighs nuclear war. Information Week 7 Information Week June 02, 2007 The Impact Of Cyberwarfare http://www.informationweek.com/the-impact-of-cyberwarfare/199800131 Cyberwarfare: What will it look like, how will we defend against it … and to try and maintain services within the country. Four internal links 1) Power Grid WSJ 12 – President of the United States (Barack, “Taking the Cyberattack Threat Seriously”, 7/20/12, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444330904577535492693044650.html)//GP
For a week, cyber-attacks plagued … Senator Joe Lieberman believes the Iranian special forces are behind the attack. 4) Oil Prices Parfomak 12 and#34;Keeping America’s Pipelines Safe and Secure:Key Issues for Congressand#34;, Paul W. Parfomak, Specialist in Energy and Infrastructure Policy, March 13, 2012 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/R41536.pdf In addition to their vulnerability to accidents … were bombed six times between October 2008 and July 2009 by unknown perpetrators. 17 Collapses the economy—Inflationary Spiral Tepperman 4 Jonathan Tepperman, senior editor at Foreign Affairs, 5/1/2004, Charleston Daily Mail A surge in oil prices would … setting off a dangerous inflationary spiral. Extinction Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline … in the economic-security
10/6/13
1AC Cites Wake RD 2
Tournament: Shirley | Round: 2 | Opponent: Cal State Fullerton Gonzalez-Rajan | Judge: Koch 1AC Advantage 1: Oversight US cyber policy is being modeled worldwide—Causes cyber prolif. Gjelten 13 (Tom Gjelten, correspondent for NPR, “Pentagon Goes On The Offensive Against Cyberattacks” February 11, 2013, http://www.npr.org/2013/02/11/171677247/pentagon-goes-on-the-offensive-against-cyber-attacks, KB)
A declaration …more ammunition. I wonder how GCHQ and the Foreign Office view this.” Only the plan can solve—acknowledging our own covert attacks establishes a norm that stops proliferation Goldsmith 10 Jack Goldsmith, teaches at Harvard Law School and is on the Hoover Institution's Task Force on National Security and Law. He was a member of a 2009 National Academies committee, “Can we stop the cyber arms race?” February 01, 2010, http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2010-02-01/opinions/36895669_1_botnets-cyber-attacks-computer-attacks, KB)
In a speech this month on… in exchange for reciprocal concessions by our adversaries. Congress must initiate a restriction – Failure irreversibly increases presidential power. Hansen and Friedman 9, Professors at the New England School of Law, (Victor and Lawrence, The Case for Congress: Separation of Powers and the War on Terror, p.130) The problem, of course, is that …for Congress to confront stand up to an assertive and aggressive president. Congressional oversight guarantees a cooperative framework which is key to cyber capabilities. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Congress obviously cannot act alone to develop … U.S. cybersecurity-related missions.”59 Lack of oversight causes hair trigger alert. Morgan 2010 (Patrick M. Morgan, Tierney Chair, Peace and Conflict, Political Science School of Social Sciences PH.D., Yale University, “Applicability of Traditional Deterrence Concepts and Theory to the Cyber Realm,” Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring Cyber Attacks, http://www.lawfareblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/morgan.pdf)
On the other hand, since they will likely not … the other side’s capabilities were and turned to a worst-case analysis.
Independently, Presidential control over OCOs drives a cyber-arms race and pre-emptive nuclear strikes. Rothschild 13, Editor of Progressive Magazine, Matthew Rothschild is the editor of The Progressive magazine, which is one of the leading voices for peace and social justice in this country. Rothschild has appeared on Nightline, C-SPAN, The O'Reilly Factor, and NPR, and his newspaper commentaries have run in the Chicago Tribune, the L.A. Times, the Miami Herald, and a host of other newspapers. Rothschild is the host of "Progressive Radio," a syndicated half-hour weekly interview program. And he does a two-minute daily radio commentary, entitled "Progressive Point of View," which is also syndicated around the country. Rothschild is the author of You Have No Rights: Stories of America in an Age of Repression (New Press, 2007). He also is the editor ofDemocracy in Print: The Best of The Progressive, 1909-2009(University of Wisconsin Press, 2009)., The Dangers of Obama’s Cyber War Power Grab, http://progressive.org/dangers-of-obama-cyber-war-power-grab There are no … may not be so sure, either about Obama or his successors. They, too, worry about the temptations of a President. The arms race escalates A) Miscalc Rosenzweig 9, Professor at Georgetown Law (Paul, founder of Reid Branch Consulting, specializing in homeland security, senior advisor to the Chertoff Group, Carnegie Fellow at Northwestern, professor at National Defense University, Editorial board at the Journal of National Security Law and Policy, deputy assistant secretary for policy at the US Department of Homeland Security, "National Security Threatsin Cyberspace" merican Bar Association Standing Committee on Law andNational Security And National Strategy Forum, September 2009, www.utexas.edu/law/journals/tlr/sources/Issue2088.7/Jensen/fn137.Rosenwieg.pdf) Offensive dominance creates a great … in which an actor purposefully makes an attack look like it came from a third party, could also ignite a conflict.124 B) Third Parties Libicki 09 Matthew Libicki, Ph.D, senior management scientist at RAND, “CYBERDETERRENCE AND CYBERWAR,” 2009, http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG877.pdf SJE
An exchange of cyberattacks between states may … Fortunately, third-party attackers may strengthen an implied threat of deterrence: Do not even start because who knows where it will lead C) Disproportional Retaliation Sanger 9 (David E., “U.S. Steps Up Effort on Digital Defenses” April 27, 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/28/us/28cyber.html?pagewanted=alland_r=0) In the rare case where the preparations for an attack are detected in a foreign computer system, … “We don’t have that for cyber yet,” one senior Defense Department official said, “and that’s a little bit dangerous.” Nuclear War Lawson, Professor of Communication at Utah, 09 (Cross-Domain Response to Cyber Attacks and the Threat of Conflict, 5/13, http://www.seanlawson.net/?p=477) At a time when it seems. …a lethal agent is regarded with the same or greater seriousness.” 7 Advantage 2: Cyber Warfare The NSA scandal created an exodus of talent from the cyber industrial complex which endangers cyber security. Economist 13 Hiring digital 007s; Consultancies and spy chiefs¶ The Economist, June 15, 2013http:ic.galegroup.com.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/ic/bic1/MagazinesDetailsPage/MagazinesDetailsWindow?failOverType=andquery=andwindowstate=normalandcontentModules=andmode=viewanddisplayGroupName=Magazinesandlimiter=andcurrPage=anddisableHighlighting=anddisplayGroups=andsortBy=andsource=andsearch_within_results=andaction=eandcatId=andactivityType=andscanId=anddocumentId=GALE7CA333726100¶ A new cyber-industrial complex is rising. Should you worry? ¶ "AT BOOZ ALLEN, … e-mails are being monitored, they are more likely to take the threats seriously. Its reverse causal—Congressional oversight creates the transparency key to recruiting. Hackers are calling for less presidential authority. Kar 13 US Government Wants to Win Hackers for Data Collection at Black Hat SAROJ KAR | AUGUST 5TH 13 Saroj is a Staff Writer at SiliconANGLE covering social and mobile news. http://siliconangle.com/blog/2013/08/05/us-government-wants-to-win-hackers-for-data-collection-at-black-hat/ The head of the U.S. National Security …he should think about his perception of hackers.) Legislation is the only way to reverse growing nihilism and distrust within the Cyber Industrial Complex. Peterson 13 Why a former NSA chief just made a big mistake by dissing hackers By Andrea Peterson, Published: August 7 at 2:58 pm http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/08/07/why-a-former-nsa-chief-just-made-a-big-mistake-by-dissing-hackers/ And who has the skills to help with that? … But current government cyber security efforts will. Absent the plan, the espionage scandal costs 15,000 recruits. Wyler 13 Without Def Con, the Feds Have a Hacker Recruitment Problem By Grace Wyler, 7/17/13 reporter/staff writer. http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/without-def-con-the-feds-have-a-hacker-recruitment-problem In addition to unveiling wholesale data collection systems, …, and US Air Force Colonel Michael Convertino, who tried to win over new recruits in 2009. The few good recruits go to the NSA for offense—DHS recruiting is key to defense. Boston Globe 13 US looks to recruit student hackers¶ Wants them to defend against foreign attacks¶ By Nicole Perlroth | NEW YORK TIMES MARCH 25, 2013 http://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2013/03/24/looks-recruit-student-hackers-help-defend-nation-cyberspace/1YurGnlyEKgVP77zy1MQsK/story.html He was grounded and got detention. Yet he is just the type of youngster …or playing defense.¶ Bad or corrupt experts destroy cyber defense. Michaels 13 Tech hiring binge may pose security risks for government Jim Michaels, USA TODAY 1:18 a.m. EDT June 13, 2013 Edward Snowden is a high school dropout. How did he land a $122,000-a-year job in a sensitive government program? http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2013/06/12/hackers-cyber-nsa-intelligence/2413183/ WASHINGTON — Among the more curious revelations … completely erased boundaries of nation states," Carr said. "You don't think of yourself as a U.S. citizen." Strong defense and homeland security solves cyber-attacks. McGraw 10 Gary McGraw Jun 17, 2010 Software Insecurity: Cyber War - Hype or Consequences? http://www.informit.com/articles/article.aspx?p=1597476 (Gary McGraw is the CTO of Cigital, Inc., a software security consulting firm with headquarters in the Washington, D.C. area and offices throughout the world. He is a globally recognized authority on software security. Dr. McGraw has also written over 100 peer-reviewed scientific publications.) You won't be surprised to hear me … a particularly namby-pamby job of it. Just for the record, filling out common criteria forms is not at all what I'm talking about. Cyber-attacks are up 680. FCW 12 Advisory website on federal business and technology 2012: The year in cybersecurity Dec 05, 201http:fcw.com/Articles/2012/12/05/2012-cybersecurity.aspx?Page=3 Cyberspace was more dangerous than ever in 2012. … looking behind the scenes to find a way in.” 2013 is the brink—Consensus of experts. Goldman 13, CNN Writer, Nations Prepare for Cyberwar, http://money.cnn.com/2013/01/07/technology/security/cyber-war/index.html Security analysts are predicting that … according to numerous assessments delivered to Congress last year. Cyber warfare threatens the entire financial system WSJ 12 – President of the United States (Barack, “Taking the Cyberattack Threat Seriously”, 7/20/12, Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444330904577535492693044650.html)//GP
In a future conflict, …of irresponsibility to leave a digital backdoor wide open to our cyber adversaries. This outweighs nuclear war. Information Week 7 Information Week June 02, 2007 The Impact Of Cyberwarfare http://www.informationweek.com/the-impact-of-cyberwarfare/199800131 Cyberwarfare: What will it look like, how will we defend against it? …, targeted sites were inaccessible outside of Estonia for extended periods in order to ride out the attacks and to try and maintain services within the country. Cyber theft is high now The Hill 13 Snowden leaks unlikely to sway cyber theft negotiations with China, expert says¶ By Amrita Khalid - 07/09/13 02:44 PM ET¶ http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/309905-snowden-leaks-unlikely-to-sway-cyber-theft-negotiations-with-china-expert-says#ixzz2c9zuYIJ8 Recent findings that China’s cyber espionage efforts are …trade secrets,” said ranking member Henry Waxman (D-Calif.) in his opening statement. Collapses the economy Anderson 13 July 25, 2013 7:14 pm¶ Don’t let Snowden overshadow the real cyber threat¶ By Mark?Anderson Financial Times http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d18f1e6a-ef97-11e2-a237-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2cFZ9RYhw Japan was the first post-second world war practitioner … notes that “the entire US economy relies on some form of IP, because virtually every industry either produces or uses it”. Causes protectionism The Hill 13 Snowden leaks unlikely to sway cyber theft negotiations with China, expert says¶ By Amrita Khalid - 07/09/13 02:44 PM ET¶ http://thehill.com/blogs/hillicon-valley/technology/309905-snowden-leaks-unlikely-to-sway-cyber-theft-negotiations-with-china-expert-says#ixzz2c9zuYIJ8 “My experience with China is that they … in order to address the threat of cyber theft and espionage,” said Wortzel. Protectionism snowballs Bernstein ‘10 William J Bernstein, PHD, principal in the money management firm Efficient Frontier Advisors, and economic contributor to several publications, March 18 2010 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/free-trade-vs-protectioni_b_504403.html When goods are not allowed … and that trade wars can end in Armageddon. Extinction Royal 10 (Jedediah, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, 2010, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic Crises, in Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, ed. Goldsmith and Brauer, p. 213-215) Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase …' This implied connection between integration, crises and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. Plan Plan: The United States federal government should establish congressional oversight for its Offensive Cyber Operations in Operational Preparation of the Environment. Solvency The military hides offensive cyber operations as “operational preparation of the environment” to keep them covert. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Another potential obstacle to congressional …responsibilities might create dangerous confusion. The plan prevents covert operations but creates flexibility. Dycus 10 Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Set out below are some steps that Congress might … for example, must be worked out between the political branches. Scenario Building on Cyber is key Mahnken and Junio 13 – (2013, Thomas, PhD, Jerome E. Levy Chair of Economic Geography and National Security at the U.S. Naval War College and a Visiting Scholar at the Philip Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at The Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and Timothy, Predoctoral Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, PhD in Political Science expected 2013, “Conceiving of Future War: The Promise of Scenario Analysis for International Relations,” International Studies Review Volume 15, Issue 3, pages 374–395, September 2013)
Finally, scenario analysis helps to explore completely new theoretical projects in a deductive way, whereas a great deal of qualitative work in political science tends to be inductive from the case study method. The use of scenario analysis may help scholars to pursue an “abductive,” or hybrid, method of theory building that draws on both deductive reasoning and insights from cases (Mayer and Pirri 1995). For example, a data-poor research subject, such as how states may respond to computer network attack, has few historical precedents (Mahnken 2011; Rid 2012). If a researcher were interested in identifying the circumstances under which states are more likely to resort to violence in response to cyber attack, he would be confounded by the problem that never in history has a state responded with violence to such an attack. Scenario analysis beginning with the value of violent counter-attack on the dependent variable (the DV being a state's strategy choice) would help the researcher to deduce likely circumstances under which such an outcome may occur. Historical analysis, such as regarding other kinds of information threats, would be helpful for such a project, but the differences between cyber and other kinds of information transmission would result in an incomplete causal narrative based on inductive reasoning alone.
Debates about national security are key to decisionmaking Laura K. Donohue 13, Associate Professor of Law, Georgetown Law, 4/11, “National Security Law Pedagogy and the Role of Simulations”, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/National-Security-Law-Pedagogy-and-the-Role-of-Simulations.pdf The concept of simulations as an aspect of higher education, or in the law school environment, … in a steep learning curve. While further adaptation of this model is undoubtedly necessary, it suggests one potential direction for the years to come. So is war power simulation Laura K. Donohue 13, Associate Professor of Law, Georgetown Law, 4/11, National Security Law Pedagogy and the Role of Simulations, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/04/National-Security-Law-Pedagogy-and-the-Role-of-Simulations.pdf 2. Factual Chaos and Uncertainty¶ One of the most important skills for … for their future success to give students the ability to create conditions of learning.
Our discussion raises awareness of cyber militarism and spills over to policy NRC 9, WILLIAM A. OWENS, AEA Holdings, Inc., Co-chair KENNETH W. DAM, University of Chicago, Co-chair THOMAS A. BERSON, Anagram Laboratories GERHARD CASPER, Stanford University DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology RICHARD L. GARWIN, IBM Fellow Emeritus JACK L. GOLDSMITH III, Harvard Law School CARL G. O’BERRY, The Boeing Company JEROME H. SALTZER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (retired) MARK SEIDEN, MSB Associates SARAH SEWALL, Harvard University WALTER B. SLOCOMBE, Caplin and Drysdale WILLIAM O. STUDEMAN, U.S. Navy (retired) MICHAEL A. VATIS, Steptoe and Johnson LLP Staff HERBERT S. LIN, Study Director KRISTEN BATCH, Associate Staff Officer (through August 2008) TED SCHMITT, Consultant JANICE SABUDA, Senior Project Assistant (through March 2008) ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Project Assistant JOSEPH F. TRAUB, Columbia University, Chair PRITHVIRAJ BANERJEE, Hewlett Packard Company FREDERICK R. CHANG, University of Texas, Austin WILLIAM DALLY, Stanford University MARK E. DEAN, IBM Almaden Research Center DEBORAH L. ESTRIN, University of California, Los Angeles KEVIN C. KAHN, Intel Corporation JAMES KAJIYA, Microsoft Corporation RANDY H. KATZ, University of California, Berkeley JOHN E. KELLY III, IBM Research SARA KIESLER, Carnegie Mellon University JON KLEINBERG, Cornell University PETER LEE, Carnegie Mellon University TERESA H. MENG, Stanford University WILLIAM H. PRESS, University of Texas, Austin PRABHAKAR RAGHAVAN, Yahoo! Research DAVID E. SHAW, D.E. Shaw Research ALFRED Z. SPECTOR, Google, Inc. ROBERT F. SPROULL, Sun Microsystems, Inc. PETER SZOLOVITS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ANDREW J. VITERBI, Viterbi Group, LLC PETER WEINBERGER, Google, Inc. JON EISENBERG, Director RENEE HAWKINS, Financial and Administrative Manager HERBERT S. LIN, Chief Scientist, CSTB LYNETTE I. MILLETT, Senior Program Officer NANCY GILLIS, Program Officer ENITAA. WILLIAMS, Associate Program Officer MORGAN R. MOTTO, Program Associate SHENAE BRADLEY, Senior Program Assistant ERIC WHITAKER, Senior Program Assistant, Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of CYBERATTACK CAPABILITIES, http://www.anagram.com/berson/nrcoiw.pdf A historical analogy … and background is in our view its most important function.
11/16/13
1AC Cites Wake RD 4
Tournament: Shirley | Round: 3 | Opponent: James Madison Miller-Bosley | Judge: Meiches 1AC
1 The executive branch is developing Air Sea Battle in preparation for war with china with zero transparency. Noble 13 Pentagon Preparing for War with China?¶ July 30, 2013 By Graham Noble ¶ Guardian Express http://globalbalita.com/2013/07/30/pentagon-preparing-for-war-with-china/ Few Americans know what goes on at the… is quite literally above the law The status quo balance of power guarantees escalation Lorber 13 PHD in Political Science Eric Lorber, Eric is a JD candidate at the University of Pennsylvania Law School and holds a Ph.D. in Political Science at Duke University. “Executive Warmaking Authority And Offensive Cyber Operations: Can Existing Legislation Successfully Constrain Presidential Power?,” March 1, 2013, http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2017036 This Comment provides an initial answer to the question… capabilities may problematically limit their effective use. Specifically, the current NDAA has afforded the executive extensive war making power. Chesney 13 Professor of Law Robert M. Chesney , An American lawyer and the Charles I. Francis Professor in Law at The University of Texas School of Law, “Computer Network Operations and U.S. Domestic Law: An Overview,” 2013 CNOs come in many shapes and sizes, some of which… reason to believe it did not, though the matter is far from conclusive. Congress must initiate a restriction – Failure irreversibly increases presidential power. Hansen and Friedman 9, Professor of Law Professors at the New England School of Law, (Victor and Lawrence, The Case for Congress: Separation of Powers and the War on Terror, p.130) The problem, of course, is that much of this congressional involvement… an assertive and aggressive president. ASB is the battle to fight—failure to restrict on cyber invites further encroachment. Dycus 10 Professor of Law Stephen, Professor, Vermont Law School. JOURNAL OF NATIONAL SECURITY LAW andPOLICY 4.155. http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf ETB
If Congress now fails to enact guidelines… to be able to ¶ participate in the formulation of national policy. Independently, an unrestrained president causes nuclear war. Forrester 89 Professor or Law Professor, Hastings College of the Law (Ray, August 1989, ESSAY: Presidential Wars in the Nuclear Age: An Unresolved Problem, 57 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 1636) *evidence is gendered modified
On the basis of this report, the startling fact is that one man…, a declaration of nuclear war, one which the nation and, indeed, humanity in general, probably would be unable to survive.
Congressional restrictions guarantee a cooperative rather than competitive framework for the WPR Dycus 10 Professor of Law Stephen Dycus, internationally recognized authority on national security law and environmental law,“Congress’s Role in Cyber Warfare,” 2010, http://jnslp.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/11_Dycus.pdf Congress obviously cannot act alone… cybersecurity-related missions.”59
Unitary executive empirically causes unilateralism Fincher 3 Charles Pugsley Fincher, October 26, 2003, http://www.thadeusandweez.com/cam03/10.26.03..html The United States Congress has gone missing… to represent the American people.
This kills diplomacy Williams 3 Ian Williams, “The end of isolationism,” September 18, 2003, http://opendemocracy.net/debates/article-3-98-1498.jsp, accessed 11/5/03 We do not live in a multipolar world.”… It is not empire that the US needs, but modesty.” Congressional war powers restrictions guarantee multilateralism—The plan is key to section 8C. Patera 12 John Patera, Hamline Journal of Public Law and Policy, Spring, 2012, 33 Hamline J. Pub. L. and Pol'y 387, CURRENT PUBLIC LAW AND POLICY ISSUE: War Powers Resolution in the Age of Drone Warfare: How Drone Technology has Dramatically Reduced the Resolution's Effectiveness as a Curb on Executive Power, Logan Beirne is an Olin Scholar at Yale Law School and the author of "Blood of Tyrants: George Washington and the Forging of the Presidency" (Encounter Books, 2013). p. 417-8 To focus on the Resolution's shortcomings, however,… shape public opinion regarding the conflict.
Leadership contributes to strong positive trends. Barnett 11 (Thomas P.M. Former Senior Strategic Researcher and Professor in the Warfare Analysis and Research Department, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, U.S. Naval War College American military geostrategist and Chief Analyst at Wikistrat., worked as the Assistant for Strategic Futures in the Office of Force Transformation in the Department of Defense, “The New Rules: Leadership Fatigue Puts U.S., and Globalization, at Crossroads,” March 7 http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/8099/the-new-rules-leadership-fatigue-puts-u-s-and-globalization-at-crossroads)
Events in Libya are a further reminder… setting the stage for the Pacific Century now unfolding. Congress is key to solvency. Forbes 12 America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision¶ March 08, 2012¶ By Rep. J. Randy Forbes¶ Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus. http://thediplomat.com/2012/03/08/americas-pacific-air-sea-battle-vision/?all=true
Secretary Panetta testified before… constellation of communication, GPS and ISR satellites.
Only the plan eliminates Air Sea Battle Forbes 12 America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision¶ March 08, 2012¶ By Rep. J. Randy Forbes¶ Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus. http://thediplomat.com/2012/03/08/americas-pacific-air-sea-battle-vision/?all=true
The Air-Sea Battle Office… power throughout the region. 2 Flashpoints are inevitable—It’s only a question of the magnitude of escalation. Kazianis 13 Fellow at CSIS America’s AirSea Battle vs. China’s A2/AD: Who Wins?¶ By Harry Kazianis¶ July 19, 2013http:thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/07/19/americas-airsea-battle-vs-chinas-a2ad-who-wins/ But first, allow me to back track a bit… shock and awe” if you will. China is locking down the China Seas Keck 11/13 China’s Air-Sea Battle Plan for the South China Sea¶ By Zachary Keck Zachary Keck is Associate Editor of The Diplomat. He has previously served as a Deputy Editor for E-IR and as an Editorial Assistant for The Diplomat. Zach has published in various outlets such as Foreign Policy, The National Interest, The Atlantic, Foreign Affairs, and World Politics Review.¶ November 13, 2013 http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/11/13/chinas-air-sea-battle-plan-for-the-south-china-sea/ Last week a senior PLA officer… PLA’s standard operating procedure. Extinction Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?", www.huntingtonnews.net/14446) While nuclear weapons exist,… and generating chaos and destruction. Taiwan is perpetually unstable. Colby 10/18 Division Leader at Center for Naval Analysis Can We Save Taiwan?¶ Elbridge Colby | October 18, 2013 Elbridge Colby is a principal analyst at CNA. http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-we-save-taiwan-9257?page=show
A piece of serious and potentially… environment in ways favorable to our interests.
Nuclear WWIII Straits Times 2k June 25, 2000 lexis Straits Times THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war… the destruction of civilization. Empowers hardliners Billington 13 This article was originally published in the June 28th, 2013 issue of the Executive Intelligence Review.¶ by Michael Billington http://chinese.larouchepub.com/en/node/717 Carnegie’s Warning “Many Chinese defense analysts are increasingly… contain and encircle the PRC.” Bad Intel and Empirics Hammes 13 Research Fellow at INSS Sorry, AirSea Battle Is No Strategy¶ T. X. Hammes T. X. Hammes is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.| August 7, 2013¶ http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/sorry-airsea-battle-no-strategy-8846
Colby also has some misconceptions… bombing campaign against a continent-sized state?
Decapitation Orourke 13 Specialist in Naval Affairs at the CRS China Naval Modernization: Implications for ¶ U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and ¶ Issues for Congress ¶ Ronald O'Rourke ¶ Specialist in Naval Affairs Congressional Research Service¶ July 5, 2013 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Future high-level talks between Pentagon… ASB appear to be a ¶ very risky proposition.
ASB guarantees pre-emptive strikes, destroys relations, and fails to create deterrence or resolve American decline. Gompert and Kelley 13 Senior Fellow and Researcher at RAND Escalation Cause¶ How the Pentagon's new strategy could trigger war with China.¶ BY DAVID GOMPERT, TERRENCE KELLY | AUGUST 2, 2013¶ David Gompert is a senior fellow at RAND and professor at the U.S. Naval Academy. His most recent government position was as President Obama's principal deputy director of national intelligence.¶ Terrence Kelly is a senior operations researcher at RAND and the director of the RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy and Resources program. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/02/escalation_cause_air_sea_battle_china
Disrupting or destroying… a first premise of the Air-Sea Battle concept.
No Deterrence—Doesn’t assume first strike or use or lose dilemma—Prefer ASB specificity. Etzioni 13 Professor of International Affairs Who AuthorizedPreparations¶ for War with China?¶ By Amitai Etzioni Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University -Yale Journal of International Affairs- Summer 2013http:icps.gwu.edu/files/2013/06/Who-Authorized-Preparations-for-War-With-China.pdf The authors make the ¶ critical assumption that mutual… ASB is prone to lead to nuclear war.
No Relations—ASB is perceived as aimed at china—Disables communication. Hammes 13 Research Fellow at INSS AirSea Battle Isn't about China¶ T. X. Hammes | October 19, 2012¶ T. X. Hammes is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.| http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/airsea-battle-isnt-about-china-7627 ¶ Despite the Pentagon’s efforts… This in turn has injected uncertainty into our relationships in the region.
No Economics—Miscalc Trumps. Fisher, 10/31/2011 (Max – associate editor at the Atlantic, 5 Most Likely Ways the U.S. and China Could Spark Accidental Nuclear War, The Atlantic, p. http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2011/10/5-most-likely-ways-the-us-and-china-could-spark-accidental-nuclear-war/247616/#slide1) After 10 years of close but unproductive talks, the U.S… is exactly what makes them so dangerous. The United States federal government should establish a statutory restriction to eliminate the authority of the president of the United States to use Air Sea Battle to introduce United States Armed forces into hostilities. Its try or die—ASB has infected our approach to geopolitics. All other calculations are impossible. Yale 11/9 Former State Department/ PHD candidate at Johns Hopkins. Air-Sea Battle: A Dangerous, Unaffordable Threat By William Yale November 9, 2013 William Yale is a graduate student at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Formerly, he worked at the U.S. State Department and Naval War College. He has lived in China for two years. http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/11/09/air-sea-battle-a-dangerous-unaffordable-threat/ ¶ It is an obvious statement that war between… creating a conflict spiral.
11/16/13
1AC USC
Tournament: Usc | Round: 2 | Opponent: Dartmouth College Kreus-Singh | Judge: Shanahan 1AC 1 Air Sea Battle makes China war structurally inevitable—The Cold War playbook has too many missing pages. Both sides assume escalation dominance—guarantees miscalc. Haddick 13 CRISIS MANAGEMENT NEEDS A MAKEOVER Robert Haddick is an independent contractor at U.S. Special Operations Command. He writes here in a personal capacity. In 2014, Naval Institute Press will publish Haddick’s book on the rise of China’s military power and U.S. strategy in East Asia.¶ Robert Haddick¶ November 18, 2013 · in Commentary and Analysis http://warontherocks.com/2013/11/crisis-management-needs-a-makeover/ On November 5th, I observed …would seem virtually inevitable. Flashpoints are inevitable—It’s only a question of the magnitude of escalation. Kazianis 13 Fellow at CSIS America’s AirSea Battle vs. China’s A2/AD: Who Wins?¶ By Harry Kazianis¶ July 19, 2013http:thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/07/19/americas-airsea-battle-vs-chinas-a2ad-who-wins/ But first, allow me to back track a bit. … “shock and awe” if you will.
Air Sea Battle caused China’s Air Defense Identification Zone—Destabilizes the region. White 12/21/13 Washington’s “Asian Pivot” and China’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). US-China Power Play in the South China Sea¶ By Bryce White¶ Global Research, December 21, 2013http:www.globalresearch.ca/washingtons-asian-pivot-and-chinas-air-defense-identification-zone-us-china-power-play-in-the-south-china-sea/5362329 China’s decision last … to be dealt with before another unnecessary military and diplomatic crisis breaks out.
Two internal links. First, the China Seas Air Sea Battle is violating the ADIZ and South Korea and Japan follow suit—causes miscalculation. Mahapatra 12/9/13 Professor of US and Latin American Studies, for IPCS China And ADIZ: Cold Confrontation With The US? – Analysis By IPCS¶ December 9, 2013¶ By Prof Chintamani Mahapatra¶ Chairperson, Canadian, US and Latin American Studies, JNU¶ About IPCS¶ IPCS (Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies) conducts independent research on conventional and non-conventional security issues in the region and shares its findings with policy makers and the public. It provides a forum for discussion with the strategic community on strategic issues and strives to explore alternatives. Moreover, it works towards building capacity among young scholars for greater refinement of their analyses of South Asian security. http://www.albanytribune.com/09122013-china-adiz-cold-confrontation-us-analysis/
The apprehension that economically sound …e early years of his first term. Extinction Wittner 11 (Lawrence S. Wittner, Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany, Wittner is the author of eight books, the editor or co-editor of another four, and the author of over 250 published articles and book reviews. From 1984 to 1987, he edited Peace and Change, a journal of peace research., 11/28/2011, "Is a Nuclear War With China Possible?", www.huntingtonnews.net/14446) While nuclear weapons exist, …and generating chaos and destruction. Second is Taiwan The ADIZ destabilized cross strait tensions. Keck 13 Forget Japan: China’s ADIZ Threatens Taiwan¶ The East China Sea ADIZ effectively cuts off US forces in Japan and South Korea from Taiwan.¶ zachary-keck_q¶ By Zachary Keck¶ December 05, 2013¶ ¶ http://thediplomat.com/2013/12/forget-japan-chinas-adiz-threatens-taiwan/ Most have assumed that China’s establishment …be controlling part of Taiwan. Nuclear WWIII Straits Times 2k June 25, 2000 lexis Straits Times THE high-intensity scenario postulates a cross-strait war …the destruction of civilization.
ASB guarantees escalation of flashpoints. Perception is key A) Empowers hardliners Billington 13 This article was originally published in the June 28th, 2013 issue of the Executive Intelligence Review.¶ by Michael Billington http://chinese.larouchepub.com/en/node/717 Carnegie’s Warning “Many Chinese defense analysts are …an effort to contain and encircle the PRC.” B) Bad Intel and Empirics Hammes 13 Research Fellow at INSS Sorry, AirSea Battle Is No Strategy¶ T. X. Hammes T. X. Hammes is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.| August 7, 2013¶ http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/sorry-airsea-battle-no-strategy-8846
Colby also has some …a conventional-bombing campaign against a continent-sized state? C) Decapitation Orourke 13 Specialist in Naval Affairs at the CRS China Naval Modernization: Implications for ¶ U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and ¶ Issues for Congress ¶ Ronald O'Rourke ¶ Specialist in Naval Affairs Congressional Research Service¶ July 5, 2013 http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL33153.pdf
Future high-level talks …¶ very risky proposition. ASB guarantees pre-emptive strikes, destroys relations, and fails to create deterrence or resolve American decline. Gompert and Kelley 13 Senior Fellow and Researcher at RAND Escalation Cause¶ How the Pentagon's new strategy could trigger war with China.¶ BY DAVID GOMPERT, TERRENCE KELLY | AUGUST 2, 2013¶ David Gompert is a senior fellow at RAND and professor at the U.S. Naval Academy. His most recent government position was as President Obama's principal deputy director of national intelligence.¶ Terrence Kelly is a senior operations researcher at RAND and the director of the RAND Arroyo Center's Strategy and Resources program. http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/08/02/escalation_cause_air_sea_battle_china
Disrupting or destroying China's … Air-Sea Battle concept. No Deterrence—Doesn’t assume first strike or use or lose dilemma—Prefer ASB specificity. Etzioni 13 Professor of International Affairs Who AuthorizedPreparations¶ for War with China?¶ By Amitai Etzioni Professor of International Affairs at The George Washington University -Yale Journal of International Affairs- Summer 2013http:icps.gwu.edu/files/2013/06/Who-Authorized-Preparations-for-War-With-China.pdf The authors make the ¶ …¶ is, ASB is prone to lead to nuclear war. No Relations—ASB is perceived as aimed at china—Destroys communication. Hammes 13 Research Fellow at INSS AirSea Battle Isn't about China¶ T. X. Hammes | October 19, 2012¶ T. X. Hammes is a distinguished research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies, National Defense University. The views expressed are his own and do not reflect the official policy or position of the National Defense University, the Department of Defense or the U.S. government.| http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/airsea-battle-isnt-about-china-7627 ¶ Despite the Pentagon’s …our relationships in the region. No economics—Recent actions have Balkanized the region despite trade ties. Guardian 11/24/13 China escalates islands dispute with Japan¶ US warns Beijing it will back up Tokyo as China sets up 'defence zone' around Senkakus¶ Chuck Hagel¶ Chuck Hagel said The imposition of the zone was a 'destabilising attempt to alter the status quo in the region'. ¶ Sunday 24 November 2013 23.35 EST http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/nov/24/us-warns-beijiing-island-dispute-senkanus
A simmering territorial and … reconnaissance planes appeared over the East China sea. Its try or die—ASB has infected our approach to geopolitics. All other calculations are impossible. Yale 11/9 Former State Department/ PHD candidate at Johns Hopkins. Air-Sea Battle: A Dangerous, Unaffordable Threat By William Yale November 9, 2013 William Yale is a graduate student at Johns Hopkins SAIS. Formerly, he worked at the U.S. State Department and Naval War College. He has lived in China for two years. http://thediplomat.com/flashpoints-blog/2013/11/09/air-sea-battle-a-dangerous-unaffordable-threat/ ¶ It is an obvious statement that war between …instability creating a conflict spiral.
Plan The United States federal government should establish a statutory restriction to eliminate the authority of the president of the United States to use Air Sea Battle to introduce United States Armed forces into hostilities. 2 They’ve systematically advocated and it’s a vicious cycle—refusal to act makes it more difficult in the future. Now is key. Barron ‘8 David J. Barron, Professor of Law at Harvard Law School and Martin S. Lederman, Visiting Professor of Law at the Georgetown University Law Center, “The Commander in Chief at the Lowest Ebb -- A Constitutional History”, Harvard Law Review, February, 121 Harv. L. Rev. 941, Lexis Thus, as future administrations … less likely to occur. The Air Sea Battle doctrine is a new preemptive warfare, and the most recent abdication. That makes it the key fight. Noble 13 Pentagon Preparing for War with China?¶ July 30, 2013 By Graham Noble ¶ Guardian Express http://globalbalita.com/2013/07/30/pentagon-preparing-for-war-with-china/ Few Americans know what goes on at the Pentagon – the headquarters of the United States military – and, most of the time, few care. Of greater concern is the fact that few of America’s elected political representatives know very much about what the Generals are doing, either. Currently – and without much congressional …The Pentagon, it seems, is quite literally above the law Executive preemptive doctrines set a precedent and its reverse causal—all actors model. Sloane ‘8 (Robert Sloane, Associate Professor of Law, Boston University School of Law, 2008 Boston University Law Review, April, 88 B.U.L. Rev. 341, Lexis) There is a great deal more constitutional history that …and most technologically advanced military arsenal. Nuclear War. Steinberg 2 – James B. Steinberg, Vice President and Director of Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution, Michael E. O'Hanlon and Susan E. Rice, “The New National Security Strategy and Preemption”, Brookings Policy Brief Series, December, http://www.brookings.edu/research/papers/2002/12/terrorism-ohanlon The Dangers of Legitimating Preemption ¶ A final concern relates …legitimating an easy and early recourse to preemption. New restrictions solve. Patera 12 John Patera, Hamline Journal of Public Law and Policy, Spring, 2012, 33 Hamline J. Pub. L. and Pol'y 387, CURRENT PUBLIC LAW AND POLICY ISSUE: War Powers Resolution in the Age of Drone Warfare: How Drone Technology has Dramatically Reduced the Resolution's Effectiveness as a Curb on Executive Power, Logan Beirne is an Olin Scholar at Yale Law School and the author of "Blood of Tyrants: George Washington and the Forging of the Presidency" (Encounter Books, 2013). p. 417-8 To focus on the Resolution's shortcomings, …regarding the conflict. Congress is key to solvency. Forbes 12 America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision¶ March 08, 2012¶ By Rep. J. Randy Forbes¶ Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus. http://thediplomat.com/2012/03/08/americas-pacific-air-sea-battle-vision/?all=true
Secretary Panetta testified …GPS and ISR satellites. Plan Eliminates Air Sea Battle Forbes 12 America’s Pacific Air-Sea Battle Vision¶ March 08, 2012¶ By Rep. J. Randy Forbes¶ Rep. J. Randy Forbes, R-Va., is chairman of the House Armed Services Readiness Subcommittee and founder and co-chairman of the Congressional China Caucus. http://thediplomat.com/2012/03/08/americas-pacific-air-sea-battle-vision/?all=true
The Air-Sea Battle Office is …throughout the region. Zero risk of a turn. Adler 8 – David Gray, Professor of Political Science at Idaho State University, “The Judiciary and Presidential Power in Foreign Affairs: A Critique”, 6-1, http://www.freerangethought.com/index.php?option=com_contentandtask=blogsectionandid=6andItemid=41 {11} The structure of shared powers in foreign …representatives in Congress. Independently an unrestrained president ensures nuclear war through accidents and groupthink. Forrester 89 Professor or Law Professor, Hastings College of the Law (Ray, August 1989, ESSAY: Presidential Wars in the Nuclear Age: An Unresolved Problem, 57 Geo. Wash. L. Rev. 1636) *evidence is gendered modified
On the basis of this report, the startling …humanity in general, probably would be unable to survive. Extinction within a half hour The American Prospect, 2/26/01 The bitter disputes over national missile defense …explains Bruce Blair. "It would be, basically, a nuclear war by checklist, by rote."
