Tournament: Bulldogdebates | Round: 3 | Opponent: George Mason Ghanem-Wiseman | Judge: Scott
Simulating conflict scenarios ignores the complexity which taints predictions—the aff’s linear war-planning fails and causes escalating conflict
Jervis, professor of international affairs – Columbia, ‘97
(Robert, “Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions,” in Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security, eds. David S. Alberts and Thomas J. Czerwinski, National Defense University)
Because actions change the environment
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they have little choice but to respond in kind to the adversary’s hostility.
The linear thought constructed in the 1AC creates try or die logic that relies on a flawed security analysis that justified the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Kessler 8 (Oliver professor of Sociology at University of Bielefeld, “From Insecurity to Uncertainty: Risk and the Paradox of Security Politics” kjl)
The problem of the second method is that it is very difficult
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"Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence."
Complexity theory through policy making is key to solve every impact
Tabara 11
(David. J. Global Systems Dynamics and Policy GSDP is an initiative to develop a research program for the study of global systems, complexity and sustainability in an ongoing dialogue with decision makers. GSDP operates as an open network evolving through workshops, working papers, publications, and open conferences. It aims at consolidating an international community of researchers engaged in dialogues with decision-makers. GSDP operate over a period of three years. GSPD work is broken down into seven work packages that operate in parallel, synchronized by annual conferences and interacting through meetings, documents, and intensive use of ICT. “An emerging research program for Global Systems Science” http://gsdp.eu/fileadmin/images/about/GSDP_1st-year-deliverables.pdf (5-1)/ /kjl)
In contrast to the conventional risk management
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deal with whatever the future might bring.
The alternative is to reject linear thinking in complex adaptive systems - accepting uncertainty through complexity is key
Ryan 10 (Dr Alex Ryan is Assistant Professor of Complex Systems at the School of Advanced Military Studies, Command and General Staff College in the United States. He teaches effective thinking, complex systems and design within the Advanced Military Studies Program and the Advanced Operational Art Studies Fellowship. In nine years at the Defence Science and Technology Organisation, Alex Ryan was the Australian national lead for the TTCP Joint Systems Analysis Action Group on complex adaptive systems for defence, task manager for complex adaptive systems research, and managed support to operations for winning the adaptation battle. Alex Ryan has a PhD in complex systems design from the University of Adelaide. Australian Army Journal • Volume VI, Number 3 “The Foundation for an Adaptive Approach”kjl)
The way to resolve this apparent paradox is to
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system-level trade-offs and exploits self-organisation and emergence
Linear construction ignores the complexity which taints predictions—the aff’s linear war-planning fails and causes escalating conflict
Jervis 97 (Robert, professor of international affairs – Columbia “Complex Systems: The Role of Interactions,” in Complexity, Global Politics, and National Security, eds. David S. Alberts and Thomas J. Czerwinski, National Defense University)
Because actions change the environment in which they operate,
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and their environments, let alone say much about any element in isolation.