Tournament: GSU | Round: 4 | Opponent:  | Judge: 

Plan

The United States federal government should statutorily preclude the use of United States Armed Forces in military conflict with Iran that is initiated by the United States or others.

Advantage 1: US Strikes

US is committed to attacking Iran now.

Greenwald, 12 (Glen, former Constitutional and civil rights litigator and is the author of three New York Times Bestselling books: two on the Bush administration’s executive power and foreign policy abuses, and his latest book, With Liberty and Justice for Some, an indictment of America’s. Obama, Iran and preventive war. http://www.salon.com/2012/03/05/obama_iran_and_preventive_war/)
President Obama yesterday joined virtually every U.S. political leader in both parties
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to President Obama’s threats from either party to see how true that is.

Iran strikes causes nuclear war.

Chossudovsky  5  Michel Chossudovsky, Professor of Economics, University of Ottawa    1 May 2005   Planned US-Israeli Attack on Iran
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/CHO505A.html

The Bush Administration has embarked upon a military adventure which threatens the future of humanity.
Iran is the next military target. The planned military operation, which is by no means limited to punitive strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, is part of a project of World domination, a military roadmap, launched at the end of the Cold War.
Military action against Iran would directly involve Israel’s participation, which in turn is likely to trigger a broader war throughout the Middle East, not to mention an implosion in the Palestinian occupied territories. Turkey is closely associated with the proposed aerial attacks.
Israel is a nuclear power with a sophisticated nuclear arsenal. (See text box below). The use of nuclear weapons by Israel or the US cannot be excluded, particularly in view of the fact that tactical nuclear weapons have now been reclassified  as a variant of the conventional bunker buster bombs and are authorized by the US Senate for use in conventional war theaters. ("they are harmless to civilians because the explosion is underground")
In this regard, Israel and the US rather than Iran constitute a nuclear threat.
The planned attack on Iran must be understood in relation to the existing active war theaters in the Middle East, namely Afghanistan, Iraq and Palestine.
The conflict could easily spread from the Middle East to the Caspian sea basin. It could also involve the participation of Azerbaijan and Georgia, where US troops are stationed.
An attack on Iran would have a direct impact on the resistance movement inside Iraq. It would also put pressure on America’s overstretched military capabilities and resources in both the Iraqi and Afghan war theaters. (The 150,000 US troops in Iraq are already fully engaged and could not be redeployed in the case of a war with Iran.)
In other words, the shaky geopolitics of the Central Asia- Middle East region, the three existing war theaters in which America is currently, involved, the direct participation of Israel and Turkey, the structure of US sponsored military alliances, etc. raises the specter of a broader conflict.  
Moreover, US military action on Iran not only threatens Russian and Chinese interests, which have geopolitical interests in the Caspian sea basin and which have bilateral agreements with Iran. It also backlashes on European oil interests in Iran and is likely to produce major divisions between Western allies, between the US and its European partners as well as within the European Union.
Through its participation in NATO, Europe, despite its reluctance, would be brought into the Iran operation. The participation of NATO largely hinges on a military cooperation agreement reached between NATO and Israel. This agreement would bind NATO to defend Israel against Syria and Iran. NATO would therefore support a preemptive attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, and could take on a more active role if Iran were to retaliate following US-Israeli air strikes.  

Advantage 2: Proxy Wars

The moderate Iranian president Rouhani just took office but his failure to win concessions from the west will cause the ascension of extremists.

Pesaran, 9/17 (Hashem Pesaran is the John Elliot Distinguished Chair in Economics at the University of Southern California. Iran sanctions: now is the time to negotiate. http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/17/world-powers-negotiate-nuclear-iran)
The only way to stop this vicious cycle is for both sides to negotiate in
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key to the resolution of political and military troubles around the Middle East.

====Renouncing threats of violence is a concession to Iran that would empower moderates and prevent regional aggression.====
Mousavian ’13, Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Research Scholar at the Program on Science and Global Security, Princeton University Winter 2013, The Washington Quarterly, "An Opportunity for a U.S.-Iran Paradigm Shift," http://csisdev.forumone.com/files/publication/TWQ_13Winter_Mousavian.pdf, p. 138-139
Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney told CNN in August that Iran  potentially poses the greatest
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Iranian support in fighting al-/Qaeda and the Taliban in 2001.31

Hardline resurgence causes proxy wars

Keynoush 12, Banafsheh, independent scholar lecturer and private-sector consultant, she specializes in Iranian and Middle Eastern affairs, she was an accredited interpreter with the European Commission and worked as an interpreter with three Iranian Presidents and a Nobel Laureate; "Iran after Ahmadinejad", Survival, Vol 54, No 3
Iran’s odd combination of theocracy and elected institutions has  produced generally cautious and pragmatic behavior
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United States and Iran, least of all  that of Iran’s nuclear program.

Independent of Rouhani’s administration, providing security assurances solves proxy wars.

Leverett and Leverett 09 (Flynt Leverett, senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative, served as senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. Hillary Mann Leverett, CEO of STRATEGA, a political risk consultancy, is a former Foreign Service officer who served as director for Iran, Afghanistan, and Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council. The Grand Bargain. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2008/0808.leverett.html)
First, while the United States and the Soviet Union were roughly matched in their
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would be able to sustain détente with Iran as it pursues such policies.

Iran maintains its proxies to deter an American strike.

Frankel, 12 (Rafael D. Frankel was a Middle East correspondent for The Christian Science Monitor and is currently a Ph.D. candidate at Georgetown University. Keeping Hamas and Hezbollah Out of a War with Iran. http://csis.org/files/publication/twq12FallFrankel.pdf)
One crucial element that the Obama or Romney and Netanyahu administrations must consider is what
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orders Hezbollah to war, its cadres are religiously bound to obey that directive

Proxy wars go nuclear

Edelman et. al. 11   Eric S. Edelman, former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy; Andrew F. Krepinevich Jr., Defense policy analyst who currently serves as President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; and Evan Braden Montgomery, Belfer Center;  Reply. Foreign Affairs, 00157120, Mar/Apr2011, Vol. 90, Issue 2  The War Over Containing Iran  EBSCO
A second important issue Adamsky raises is that Iran’s acquisition of nuclear weapons would increase
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dynamics of Iranian-Israeli relations could be prone to miscalculation and escalation.

Advantage 3: Grand Bargain

Iran is ready for a grand bargain that would end Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a security guarantee. Rouhani’s election establishes a window of opportunity for negotiations. Congressional threats of force are ineffective and undermine these negotiations.

Walt 13 (Stephen M. Walt is the Robert and Renée Belfer professor of international relations at Harvard University. Congress to Iran: Drop Dead. http://walt.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/08/05/congress_to_iran_drop_dead)
About six weeks ago, I wrote a blog post about the election of new
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representatives in Congress, especially on just about anything concerning the Middle East.

Although Rouhani’s election created the possibility for successful negotiations, Iran is still pursuing a strategy of nuclearization.

Heinonen and Henderson, 13 (Simon Henderson is the Baker Fellow and director of the Gulf and Energy Policy Program at The Washington Institute. Olli Heinonen is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center and a former deputy director-general for safeguards at the IAEA. Rouhani and Iran’s Nuclear Progress. http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/rouhani-and-irans-nuclear-progress)
Uranium enrichment. Iran continues to enrich uranium and increase the number of centrifuges installed
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an important indicator of the direction and progress of nuclear negotiations with Iran.

Taking strikes off the table establishes a policy of nonintervention that makes successful negotiations possible.

Pillar ’13, Paul R. Pillar, 28 year CIA veteran, visiting prof at Georgetown for security studies and a member of the Center for Peace and Security Studies, International Security, Volume 38, Number 1, Summer 2013 "Correspondence: Nuclear Negotiations with Iran," p. 179
Sebenius and Singh do acknowledge another difficulty: that Iran would perceive negotiations  as merely
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stoke whatever interest the Iranians have in acquiring  nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

A credible security assurance secures a grand bargain – only way to prevent Iran proliferation

Forbes, 13 (Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry, lecturer at HEC Paris business school, journalist at Business Insider, business and economics columnist at Atlantico, A Completely Unrealistic Iran Grand Bargain Proposal. http://www.forbes.com/sites/pascalemmanuelgobry/2013/03/12/a-completely-unrealistic-iran-grand-bargain-proposal/)
It’s a testament to how dim the prospects of a sustainable solution to Iran’
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credible. Iran would have to get an ironclad, credible security guarantee.

The United States must forswear meddling in Iran’s internal affairs to reset relations – the plan is a prerequisite to negotiations.

Leverett and Leverett 08 (Flynt Leverett, senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative, served as senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. Hillary Mann Leverett, CEO of STRATEGA, a political risk consultancy, is a former Foreign Service officer who served as director for Iran, Afghanistan, and Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council. The Grand Bargain. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2008/0808.leverett.html)
A U.S-Iranian grand bargain is a tall order. The commitments
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.S. administration will not have a more important foreign policy task.

Security concerns are the primary motivator of Iranian nuclearization – the plan causes denuclearization regardless of the success or failure of negotiations.

Bowman, 08 (Bradley Bowman is a 2007-2008 Council on Foreign Relations International Affairs Fellow.
Prior to his CFR fellowship, he served as an Assistant Professor of American Politics, Policy, and
Strategy in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. The ’Demand-Side’:
Avoiding a Nuclear-Armed Iran.  Orbis 52.4)
As the Bush administration began the verbal escalation to war, Iran opposed the U
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, the likelihood of war or a nuclear-armed Iran will grow.

Iran proliferation causes regional proliferation.

Brookes, 10 (Peter,  a Heritage Foundation senior fellow, is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense, Congressional staffer, CIA and State Department officer, and navy veteran. The Post-Iran Proliferation Cascade. Journal of International Security Affaris. Fall Winter 2010. 19. http://www.securityaffairs.org/issues/2010/19/brookes.php)
In just the last four years, no fewer than fourteen countries in the Middle
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joint effort was sparked specifically in response to Iran’s nuclear activities.9.

====Mid east proliferation causes nuclear war.====
Heisbourg ’12, ~Francois Heisbourg, Chairman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, prof at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, July 2012, "How Bad Would the Further Spread of Nuclear Weapons Be?", http://www.npolicy.org/userfiles/file/oving20Beyond20Pretense20web20version.pdf~~23page=182~~
Human societies tend to lack the imagination to think through, and to act upon
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nuclear Middle East would make the Cuban Missile Crisis look easy in comparison.
Great conflicts tend to occur when one or several of the antagonists   views the status
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nuclear program will be essential   to the future of proliferation and nonproliferation prospects.

Iran proliferation is uniquely destabilizing  — multiple actors.

Joshi, 13 (Shashank, Research Fellow of the Royal United Services Institute. IV. THE IMPLICATIONS OF A NUCLEAR IRAN. Whitehall Papers Volume 79, Issue 1, 2012 Special Issue: The Permanent Crisis: Iran’s Nuclear Trajectory.)
 First, nuclear deterrence depends on attribution. Only by accurately attributing a nuclear
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accident, error, miscalculation, miscommunication, or some other pathology’.93

Advantage 4: Israeli Strikes

An Israeli attack on Iran is coming by the end of the year.

Serwer ’13, (Daniel Serwer is a professor at Johns Hopkins’ School of Advanced International Studies and a scholar at the Middle East Institute. Will this be the year that Israel goes to war with Iran?, http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2013/01/03/will-this-be-the-year-that-israel-goes-to-war-with-iran/)
Israel did not bomb Iran last year. Why should it happen this year?  
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it as the only solution, albeit a temporary and highly uncertain one.

Perception of U.S. support is a key factor in Israel’s decision to strike

NYT ’12, (Will Israel Attack Iran?, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/29/magazine/will-israel-attack-iran.html?pagewanted=all26_r=0)
Netanyahu and Barak have both repeatedly stressed that a decision has not yet been made
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went on, "in any way and anywhere that we see fit."

Strong US support is a prerequisite to an Israeli strike—leaders value ties very highly.

Zanotti et al 12 (Jim Zanotti, Coordinator Specialist in Middle Eastern Affairs. Israel: Possible Military Strike Against Iran’s Nuclear Facilities. CRS. http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/R42443.pdf)
Despite the reference by Defense Minister Barak to the possible need for "overt or
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and bolster Israel’s "qualitative military edge" over regional security   threats.145

Israeli strike on Iran triggers world war III.

Reuveny, 10 (Rafael Reuveny is a professor in the School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University. Con: Unilateral strike could trigger World War III, global depression,  http://gazettextra.com/news/2010/aug/07/con-unilateral-strike-could-trigger-world-war-iii-/~~23sthash.tGUOoSDf.dpuf)
A unilateral Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities would likely have dire consequences, including
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green light. A unilateral Israeli strike could ultimately spark World War III.

Solvency

====A demonstration of congressional support is a prerequisite to negotiations – Iran doesn’t think Obama can deliver on his promises. ====
Alterman, 13 (Jon B. Alterman holds the Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair in Global Security and Geostrategy and directs the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Al-monitor. US-Iran Nuclear Deal Hinges   On Syria Vote. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2013/09/us-iran-nuclear-deal-hinges-on-syria-vote.html)
To start, it is worth noting the extent to which foreign governments are sophisticated
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a hostile Congress is not a president with whom it is worth negotiating.

The United States should provide a security assurance to Iran.

Leverett and Leverett 08 (Flynt Leverett, senior fellow and director of the New America Foundation’s Geopolitics of Energy Initiative, served as senior director for Middle East affairs at the National Security Council. Hillary Mann Leverett, CEO of STRATEGA, a political risk consultancy, is a former Foreign Service officer who served as director for Iran, Afghanistan, and Persian Gulf affairs at the National Security Council. The Grand Bargain. http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2008/0808.leverett.html)
From an Iranian perspective, one of the essential found-ations for a U
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This is the essential substance of a U.S. security assurance.

Presidents don’t violate the letter of the law – they have only exploited ambiguity 
Yost 89    Mark J. Yost, law student   Georgetown Law Journal  December, 1989   78 Geo. L.J. 415     NOTE: Self Defense or Presidential Pretext?  The Constitutionality of Unilateral Preemptive Military Action.    lexis
 ~*415~  The boundary between the warmaking powers of congress and the President
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fuels the political debates that ultimately decide what the war powers mean.  n5