Tournament: All | Round: Finals | Opponent: Ho Lee Fuk Bang Ding Ow | Judge: Haywood Jablomie
Case Neg
Targeted Killing
Hegemony
A2: Link – Alt Causes to Soft Power Loss
Wiretapping is hurting US soft power
Arkedis 2013 (Jim Arkedis, Senior Fellow at the Progressive Policy Institute and was a DOD counter-terrorism analyst, “PRISM Is Bad for American Soft Power”, Jun 19 2013, The Atlantic, http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2013/06/prism-is-bad-for-american-soft-power/277015/)
The lack of public debate, shifting attitudes towards civil liberties, insufficient disclosure,
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terrorists, it's more likely than not that they will question Washington's motives.
Guantanamo and Indefinite Detention hurts soft power
Nye 2004 (Joseph S. Nye, political scientist and former Harvard school of government dean, “Soft Power, The Means to Success in World Politics”, 2004, http://books.google.com/books?id=HgxTIjQHsdUCandpg=PA59andlpg=PA59anddq=guantanamo+soft+powerandsource=blandots=yfJBCQ6FPAandsig=LZYNtqQK5kX6I3156SEFyyX9Wl0andhl=enandsa=Xandei=o5P9UcepDqO1iwLP6oDACQandved=0CFkQ6AEwBjgK#v=onepageandq=guantanamo20andf=false)
Also damaging to American attractiveness is the perception that the United States has not lived
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to make our preaching on human rights policies appear hypocritical to some people.
A2: Link – Drones Don’t Piss People Off
Drones accurate – accelerated developments check
Bergen and Tiedemann 11 (Peter and Katherine, BERGEN is Director of the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and the author of The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda. KATHERINE TIEDEMANN is a Research Fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a doctoral student in political science at George Washington University. “Washington’s Phantom War”, Foreign Affairs issue no.4 July/August pg12-13 http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora90anddiv=61andcollection=journalsandset_as_cursor=0andmen_tab=srchresults)
The U.S. drone program has its roots in the late 1990s,
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"less secure today" than they had just a few months earlier.
Advances in Drone technology decreases accidental deaths, empirics prove
Bergen and Tiedemann 11 (Peter and Katherine, BERGEN is Director of the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and the author of The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda. KATHERINE TIEDEMANN is a Research Fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a doctoral student in political science at George Washington University. “Washington’s Phantom War”, Foreign Affairs issue no.4 July/August pg13 http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora90anddiv=61andcollection=journalsandset_as_cursor=0andmen_tab=srchresults)
One of the primary challenges in producing an accurate count of fatalities from drone strikes
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better allows their U.S. pilots to distinguish militants from civilians.
A2: Link - Human Rights Cred—Plan Insufficient
Plan can’t solve Human Rights—too many alt causes and institutional barriers
Nossel 2008(Suzanne, Guardian Staff, November 19, "Closing Gitmo is just the beginning", http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/nov/19/obama-guantanamo-human-rights)
While abuses carried out as part of the fight against terrorism cost the US its
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wider human rights agenda could make closing Guantánamo look like the easy part.
A2: Link – Unrestrained Drones Key to Hard Power/Hegemony
Unrestrained drone usage key to maintaining hegemony
Reynolds 2013 (Michael A. Reynolds, Associate Professor of Near Eastern Studies at Princeton University, “Return of the Maxim Gun? Technology and empire in an age of austerity”, Global Discourse, 26 Jun 2013, http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23269995.2013.807603#tabModule)
The United States, although it may not have the equivalent of the mythological Maxim
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. Empire in an age of austerity might well be one of them.
Unrestricted Drones are the only option to project hard power, no alternatives
Bergen and Tiedemann 11 (Peter and Katherine, BERGEN is Director of the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and the author of The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda. KATHERINE TIEDEMANN is a Research Fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a doctoral student in political science at George Washington University. “Washington’s Phantom War”, Foreign Affairs issue no.4 July/August pg16 http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora90anddiv=61andcollection=journalsandset_as_cursor=0andmen_tab=srchresults)
Despite the drone program's shortcomings, it is likely to continue-put simply
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, and that isn't coming from some white guy running around the FATA."
Unrestricted drones are best for hard power – paralyze militants
Bergen and Tiedemann 11 (Peter and Katherine, BERGEN is Director of the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and the author of The Longest War: The Enduring Conflict Between America and Al-Qaeda. KATHERINE TIEDEMANN is a Research Fellow at the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation and a doctoral student in political science at George Washington University. “Washington’s Phantom War”, Foreign Affairs issue no.4 July/August pg16 http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora90anddiv=61andcollection=journalsandset_as_cursor=0andmen_tab=srchresults)
Anecdotal evidence suggests that the strikes are also having an effect on the insurgents' morale
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once said, the drone program is "the only game in town."
Drones new cornerstone of military hard power – essential to heg, like fighter bombers and warships
Rasmussen 11 (Anders Fogh, is the Secretary General of NATO, “NATO After Libya, The Atlantic Alliance in Austere Times, Foreign Affairs issue no.4 July/August pg16 http://heinonline.org/HOL/Page?handle=hein.journals/fora90anddiv=59andg_sent=1andcollection=journals)
The mission in Libya has revealed three important truths about military intervention today. First
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is for NATO to be ready, capable, and willing to act.
A2: Internal Link – Alliances - No Impact
Alliances don’t solve anything – Gulf War proves that countries will hate us no matter what.
Krauthammer, ‘3 (Charles, The National Interest, Winter 2002/2003)
A third critique comes from what might be called pragmatic realists, who see the
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the international system, not by the details of our management of it.
A2: Internal Link – Hard Power Best Internal Link to Hegemony
Hard Power maintains hegemony.
Layne 2009 (Christopher Layne, professor at Texas AandM University, “The Waning of U.S. Hegemony—Myth or Reality?”, International Security, Volume 34, Number 1, Summer 2009, http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/international_security/v034/34.1.layne.html )
The—apparent—crux of the Brooks/Wohlforth argument is that the world
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reshape the international system to advance its security interests (p. 218).
Credibility of threats much easier to maintain – turning their links to soft power
Etzioni 11 (Amitai, Amitai Etzioni is a professor of international relations at George Washington ¶ University and author of Security First: ¶ For a Muscular, Moral Foreign Policy, “The Coming Test ¶ of U.S. Credibility,” Military Review, The Institute for Communitarian Policy Studies, The George Washington University, March/April 2011, http://icps.gwu.edu/files/2011/03/credibility.pdf, p.3)
T¶ HE RELATIVE POWER of the United States is declining—both ¶ because
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of this essay focuses on dealing ¶ with threats, rather than promises.
A2: Internal Link – No Impact to Soft Power
Soft power doesn’t work—military power is the only influence
Fan 2007 (Ying, Senior Lecturer in Marketing at Brunel Business School, Brunel University in London, November 14, “Soft power: Power of attraction or confusion?”)
Despite its popularity, the concept soft power remains a power of confusion. The
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admire American technological superiority and super brands but detest its policies on Taiwan.
Soft power fails – inefficient, indefinable, misunderstood, and causes backlash
Major James R. Hackbarth, USAF, Center for Contemporary Conflict, Dec 2008 (“Soft Power and Smart Power in Africa,” http://www.ccc.nps.navy.mil/si/2008/Dec/hackbarthDec08.pdf)
Despite these tools, soft power still has its detractors. Even Nye admits “
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trouble with soft power is that it’s, well, soft.”45
The scholarship surrounding soft power, and in particular the works of Joseph Nye, are horrendously understudied and lack any real merit.
Mattern, Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Singapore, 2005
(Janice Bially Millenium-Journal of International Studies 33: 583 “Why `Soft Power' Isn't So Soft: Representational Force and the Sociolinguistic Construction of Attraction in World Politics” pg 591-2 http://mil.sagepub.com/content/33/3/583.abstract) ZLH
So far, however, the notion of attraction has been under-studied in
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constructivists) offers a worryingly underdeveloped natural or essentialist version of that phenomenon.
A2: Impact – No Impact to Hegemony
Hegemony doesn’t solve conflict
Goldstein, American University, School of International Service professor, 2011
(Joshua S., September/October 2011, Foreign Policy, “Think Again: War,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/08/15/think_again_war?page=full, accessed 7-4-12, LH)
Nor do shifts in the global balance of power doom us to a future of
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for a century until its breakdown and the bloodbath of World War I.
Heg decline doesn’t cause war, and even though relative decline is inevitable, the US military advantage is so large that no global challengers will initiate hostility against the US.
Nichols and Johnson-Freese 9 (Tom, professor at the Naval War College and a fellow at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, and Joan, chair of the Naval War College’s National Security Decision Making program and a top scholar on China’s space program, “US Less Dominant But So What”, 11/25, http://www.dodbuzz.com/2009/11/25/us-less-dominant-but-so-what/ GAL)
¶ Here we go again.¶ America, we are told, is losing its
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and there have been several since 1945) eventually gives way to reality.
International Law
A2: UQ – China Won’t Use Drones
China won’t use drones to resolve territorial disputes – fears international backlash and creating a precedent for U.S. strikes in the area
Erickson, associate professor at the Naval War College and Associate in Research at Harvard University's Fairbank Centre, and Strange, researcher at the Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute and graduate student at Zhejiang University, 5-29-13 (Andrew and Austin, China has drones. Now how will it use them? Foreign Affairs, McClatchy-Tribune, 29 May 2013, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/China-has-drones-Now-how-will-it-use-them-30207095.html, da 8-3-13) PC
Drones, able to dispatch death remotely, without human eyes on their targets or
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areas to surveillance, according to recent public statements from China's Defence Ministry.
China is empirically cautious in its use of force to resolve territorial disputes
Erickson, associate professor at the Naval War College and Associate in Research at Harvard University's Fairbank Centre, and Strange, researcher at the Naval War College's China Maritime Studies Institute and graduate student at Zhejiang University, 5-29-13 (Andrew and Austin, China has drones. Now how will it use them? Foreign Affairs, McClatchy-Tribune, 29 May 2013, http://www.nationmultimedia.com/opinion/China-has-drones-Now-how-will-it-use-them-30207095.html, da 8-3-13) PC
The restrictive position that Beijing takes on sovereignty in international forums will further constrain its
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on other countries' sovereignty - something Beijing regularly decries when others do it.
A2: Link – Unrestricted Drone Use Inevitable
New technology makes drone proliferation by state and non-state actors inevitable
Wood 12 (David, American Drones Ignite New Arms Race From Gaza To Iran To China, Huffington Post, 27 November 2012, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/27/american-drones_n_2199193.html, da 8-2-13) PC
Obama administration officials have said they are weighing various options to codify the use of
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have to first stop science, and then business, and then war."
Restricting the use of drones is impossible – unrestrained use is inevitable.
Steigerwald ‘13 (Lucy, “The Inevitability of Drones in the US and Abroad”, Anti War, 4-29-13, http://antiwar.com/blog/2013/04/29/the-inevitability-of-drones-in-the-u-s-and-abroad/, RSR)
The proliferation of drones will not long be an American issue alone. “The
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efficient killing machines abroad, and the ideal mechanisms for surveillance at home.
A2: Link – No International Perception to US Use of Drones
Targeted killing does not violate human rights
Paust 10 Jordan J, Mike and Teresa Baker Law Center Professor at the University of Houston, “Self-defense Targetings of Non-State Actors and Permissibility of U.S. Use of Drones In Pakistan”, Spring 2010, http://law-wss-01.law.fsu.edu/journals/transnational/vol19_2/paust.pdf, p. 263-265AM
An otherwise lawful targeted killing in self-defense during relative peace or during war
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do not pertain and that a human rights paradigm is not directly relevant.
Use of drones is not adverse to international humanitarian law
Wagner 2011 Markus, Associate Professor of Law at University of Miami School of Law, “Taking Humans Out of the Loop: Implications for International Humanitarian Law”, Miami Law Research Paper Series, July 11 2011, http://law.huji.ac.il/upload/Wagnerpaperupdated4dec2011.pdf, p. 4AM
While it is not possible to describe the debate about the use of UAVs in
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situation is characterised by managing UVs through oversight, intervening only when necessary.
A2: Internal Link – Hezbollah Drones Fail
Israeli air defense solves Hezbollah drones - empirics
Kershner 13 (Isabel, “Israel Shoots Down Drone Possibly Sent by Hezbollah”, 4-25-13,
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/world/middleeast/israel-downs-drone-possibly-sent-by-hezbollah.html, RSR)
TEL AVIV — The Israeli military said it shot down a drone on Thursday, five nautical miles off the coast of its northern port of Haifa, after tracking it for an hour as it flew south along the Lebanese coast. Once we confirmed that it was not a friendly aircraft and it had entered Israeli airspace, F-16 aircraft intercepted it with air-to-air missiles,” said Capt. Eytan Buchman, a spokesman for the Israeli military.
A2: Impact – No Meltdowns Impact
No impact to meltdowns – plant explosion is impossible.
Morris, PhD in Science Education and retired Environmental Consultant, 2k (Robert, The Environmental Case for Nuclear Power, 2000, pg 16-7)
In the 1970s, a number of anti-nuclear power organizations spread the idea
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Western European nations. (More about Chernobyl appears in a later chapter.)
Meltdown impacts won’t happen – empirics
WNA 12 (World Nuclear Association, “Safety of Nuclear Power Reactors”, (updated May 2012), http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf06.html, da 8-3-13) PC
From the outset, there has been a strong awareness of the potential hazard of
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compared with other commonly accepted risks. Nuclear power plants are very robust.
Nuclear power plants cannot possibly explode – best science agrees.
Hargreaves, CNN Money staff writer, 9 (Steve, The threat of nuclear meltdown, 12 November 2009, http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/12/news/economy/nuclear_security/index.htm, da 8-3-13) PC
A nuclear power plant would not blow up like a bomb. Even in a
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the most dangerous area -- generally 50 miles or so from the plant.
A2: Impact – No Senkaku Impact
No Senkaku or Asian conflict- empirically denied, economic interdependence checks, and China avoids nationalism.
Carlson ’13 (Allen Carlson is an Associate Professor in Cornell University’s Government Department.
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at Sea Why the Dragon Doesn't Want War Allen Carlson February 21, 2013
At times in the past few months, China and Japan have appeared almost ready
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or especially conducive to improving Sino-Japanese relations, will be enduring.
China won’t provoke a war- multiple warrants
-economy
-vulnerable military
-few outposts in Spratlys
-Not pumping oil
-Taiwan has more to lose
-Empirics
-Patrol ships are unarmed
Goldstein, associate professor in the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College in Newport, ‘11
Lyle, He is co-editor of the recent volumes China, the United States and 21st-Century Sea Power: Defining a Maritime Security Partnership and Chinese Aerospace Power: Evolving Maritime Roles. “The South China Sea's Georgia Scenario,” http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/07/11/the_south_china_seas_georgia_scenario?page=0,2
Washington's focus on "freedom of navigation," which has inexplicably become the main pillar
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-- clearly a sign that it does not seek escalation to armed conflict.
Pakistan
A2: UQ – Strikes Low Now
Drone strikes are less utilized in the status quo, and are killing record low levels of civilians- takes out their Internal link to instability
Cahall 13 (Bailey, research associate with the National Security Studies Program at the New America Foundation, July 2nd 2013, New report says CIA drone strikes in Pakistan at an all-time low, afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/07/02/report_cia_drone_strikes_in_pakistan_at_all_time_low
A new report released by the Bureau of Investigative Journalism on Monday notes that the
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sharply falling civilian casualty rate for the past year on CNN.com.
US Drone Strikes have decreased since its peak in 2010.
Pakistan News and Views 7/26/13 (“U.S Drones Strikes has Decreased Due To Its Criticism”, http://pakistannewsviews.com/u-s-drone-strikes-has-decreased-due-to-its-criticism/)
The tempo of CIA drone strikes in Pakistan has slowed significantly in recent months,
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continue at the current rate, citing concerns over the civilian death toll.
A2: Link – Alt Causes to Pakistani Instability
Drones irrelevant to Pakistan stability- multiple alternatives cause.
Javaid ’11 (Umbreen, Director Center of Asian Studies and Chairperson Department of political
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concerns for the region and also ¶ towards the global security and peace.
Taliban takeover and Pakistani collapse inevitable
IANS 11 (India’s largest independent news service, January 16, “A Disintegrating Pakistan: Choices For The United States And India” http://www.sify.com/news/a-disintegrating-pakistan-choices-for-us-and-india-news-international-lbqjaeheiee.html)
Islamic fanaticism, conjoined with military authoritarianism, has ripped Pakistan to shreds and soon
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we have known them, it is indeed the end of the affair.
A2: Link – Drone Strikes Solves Stability
Drones are the best option and save civilian lives overall
Meservey 12 (Josh, writing for Fletcher forum of world affairs at Tufts university, second year MALD candidate focusing on International Security. He is interested in non-state armed groups and counterinsurgency, particularly in Africa, November 16 “Drones: The Best Option We’ve Got” http://www.fletcherforum.org/2012/11/16/meservey/)
Moreover, the United States’ use of drones raises the troubling question of civilian casualties
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this level of success against high-level terrorist targets in the FATA.
Drones crush terrorists and solve militant takeover in Pakistan
Nadim 2012 (Hussain Nadim, visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center, August 8, 2012, "How Drones Changed the Game in Pakistan," National Interest, nationalinterest.org/how-drones-changed-the-game-pakistan-7290)
Regardless of what the news agencies in Pakistan claim about the negative effects of drone
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at all as long as they get to burn a few American flags.
Studies show that Drones are successful at fighting terrorism because they kill important militant officials.
Lynn-Jones ’12 (Sean M., Editor of International Security, the International Security Program's quarterly journal, and Belfer Center Studies in International Security published by MIT, “Do Drone strikes on Al-Qaida make us safer?”, Power and Policy, http://www.powerandpolicy.com/2012/06/08/do-us-drone-strikes-on-al-qaida-make-us-safer/#.UfttvmTwLGA)
Does killing the leaders of terrorist groups make the United States more secure? Is
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target in its calculation that the benefits of decapitation strikes outweigh the costs.
There are fewer attacks when we use targeted killing
Johnston 2012 (Patrick B. Johnston, Associate Political Scientist at the RAND Corporation, Number 4, Spring 2012 “Does Decapitation Work?¶ Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Targeting in Counterinsurgency Campaigns,” International Security¶ Volume 36, Project Muse)
Next, I examined the impact of leadership decapitation on the rate of insurgent attacks
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this suggests that, after including basic controls, decapitation is associated with fewer
A2: Link – Drone Strikes Solve Terrorism
Drone strikes are the best option against Al Qaeda
Lewis 13 (Michael, teaches international law and the law of war at Ohio Northern University's College of Law. He is the coauthor of "The War on Terror and the Laws of War: A Military Perspective,” February 5, “The case for drone strikes” http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/05/opinion/la-oe-lewis-defending-drones-20130205/2)
Like many such studies, the NYU/Stanford one did not attempt to interview
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disrupt the Taliban and deny it control of territory in the tribal areas.
U.S Drone strikes continue to play an important role in fighting against Al-Qaeda.
Curtis ’13 (Lisa, Senior Research Fellow, “Pakistan Makes Drones Necessary,” The Heritage, http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2013/7/pakistan-makes-drones-necessary)
One of the central campaign platforms of newly elected Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was
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Ten-Year Search for Bin Laden from 9/11 to Abbottabad.
Drones necessary- Pakistan can’t fight insurgents alone
Curtis ’13 (Lisa, Senior Research Fellow, “Pakistan Makes Drones Necessary,” The Heritage, http://www.heritage.org/research/commentary/2013/7/pakistan-makes-drones-necessary)
The continuation of drone strikes signals U.S. frustration with Pakistan’s unwillingness to
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helps to sustain the Haqqani group and enhance its effectiveness on the battlefield.
Drone Strikes key to preventing terrorists coming into Pakistan and recruiting and training new members
Golovnina 13 (Maria, Chief Correspondant on Pakistan for Reuters, July 31 2013, al-Qaeda militants killed in drone strike in Pakistan, uk.reuters.com/article/2013/07/31/uk-pakistan-qaeda-idUKBRE96U14320130731)
A drone strike in Pakistan this week killed three al Qaeda operatives who ran a
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to look at ways of setting up a similar camp on Pakistani territory.
Drones are America’s only option against Al Qaeda
Mayer 09 (Jane, former white house correspondent for Wall Street Journal, staff writer for the New Yorker since 1995, author of NYT bestseller “The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned Into a War on American Ideals, October 26, “The Predator War” http://www.newyorker.com/reporting/2009/10/26/091026fa_fact_mayer)
The Predator program is described by many in the¶ intelligence world as America’s single
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continues to use it is obvious: it doesn’t really have anything else.”
Nothing else stopping Pakistan collapse loose nukes
Thiessen 2012 (Marc A. Thiessen, AEI fellow and member of the White House senior staff under President George W. Bush, March 19, 2012, “Five disasters we’ll face if U.S. retreats from Afghanistan,” Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/five-disasters-well-face-if-us-retreats-from-afghanistan/2012/03/19/gIQA04zCNS_story_1.html)
- The drone war against al-Qaeda in Pakistan would likely cease.
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will be strengthened. Either way, Pakistan becomes a facilitator of terror.
A2: Impact – Indo Pak Relations Improving
Indo-Pak relations are getting stronger through new trade agreements.
Sharma ’13 (Pranjal, Advisor at Prasar Bharati,”Sharif’s government gives boost to relations,” DNA, 7/17/2013, http://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/1862090/column-sharif-s-government-gives-boost-to-indo-pak-business-relations)
Usually when governments change, so do the economic policies of the country. In
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¶ The author tracks India’s political economy and its engagement with the world.
A2: Impact – No Indo Pak War
Rationality prevents nuclear war from occurring
Chari 11 (research professor at the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies in New Delhi, former member of the Indian Administrative Service. How they learned to stop worrying and junk the bomb, Mar 15, 2011,
A different line of reasoning is required to recognise the essential truth underlying nuclear weapons
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theatre of operations, fearing escalation of the conflict and possible nuclear confrontation.
International pressure ensure no indo-pak war
Dhanda 11 Suresh Dhanda, Department of Political Science, S.A.Jain College Haryana, India, International Affairs and Global Strategy www.iiste.org ISSN 2224-574X (Paper) ISSN 2224-8951 (Online) Vol 2, 2011, “Dangers of Missile Race in South Asia: an India-Pakistan Perspective” http://www.iiste.org/Journals/index.php/IAGS/article/view/1065/985 SS
Fourthly, India and Pakistan will face international opprobrium if they opt to deploy nuclear
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not seem to engender the same level of concern in the international community.
A long history of Indo-Pak tension and attacks prove no risk of escalation
Thakur 11 (Chandra, Distinguished Fellow, Centre for International Governance Innovation and Professor of Political Science, University of Waterloo, Glendon School of Public and International Affairs, Global Brief February 18th 2011, www98.griffith.edu.au/dspace/handle/10072/51641, page 2)
Islamabad’s record of double-dealing, deceit and denial of Pakistan-based attacks
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damage inflicted is more typically associated with special forces units than with terrorists.
Diplomatic solutions prevent war from breaking out
Zee News 11 (award winning Indian news station. War is not the solution to disputes: Gilani Monday, June 20, 2011 http://zeenews.india.com/news/south-asia/war-is-not-the-solution-to-disputes-gilani_713956.html)
Pakistan Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani has said that war is not a solution to
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expressed the hope that the world would help the Kashmiris get their rights.
A2: Impact – No Pakistani Loose Nukes
No impact to Pakistani loose nukes – they’re separated.
Koring, ‘9
Paul, Globe and Mail, “Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal safe, security experts say”, 10-16-9
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/pakistans-nuclear-arsenal-safe-security-experts-say/article1325820/
Pakistan's nuclear-weapons security is modeled on long-standing safeguards developed by the
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radioactive material over a small area, but is not a nuclear blast.
Pakistani Education Reform CP – 1NC
Text: The Pakistani Government should enact primary education reform.
Reforming Madrassahs best way to solve for increased terrorism and militarization- no link to DA’s
Meher 12 (Jagmohan, Associate Professor of Political Science at the National Defence Academy,
Khadakwasla, “Pakistan's Strategic Obsession and the Road to Catastrophe: Is There a Way Out?”, India Quarterly: A Journal of International Affairs p. 357-358
The Pakistani religious schools, commonly known as madrassahs, have been called ‘factories
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is transformed slowly and the country finds itself at home with its neighbours.
Counterplan solves- specific reform actions will work
Winthrom and Graff 10 (Rebecca and Corinne, Fellow and Co-Director of the Center for Universal Education at Brookings and Fellow in the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, “BEYOND MADRASAS ASSESSING THE LINKS BETWEEN EDUCATION AND MILITANCY IN PAKISTAN”, Center for Universal Education at Brookings, June 2010, page 48-9, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/6/pakistan20education20winthrop/06_pakistan_education_winthrop.pdf)
A wide range of actors are currently actively ¶ engaged in education and security reform
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could be an ¶ important priority for the Pakistan Education Task ¶ Force.
Pakistani Education Reform CP – 2NC/1NR
Education reform only way to solve militancy from within Pakistan-9 warrants and no link to DA’s
Winthrom and Graff 10 (Rebecca and Corinne, Fellow and Co-Director of the Center for Universal Education at Brookings and Fellow in the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, “BEYOND MADRASAS ASSESSING THE LINKS BETWEEN EDUCATION AND MILITANCY IN PAKISTAN”, Center for Universal Education at Brookings, June 2010, page 48-9, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/6/pakistan20education20winthrop/06_pakistan_education_winthrop.pdf)
Finding 1: Demand for education within Pakistan ¶ far exceeds the government’s ability to
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approach to redressing equity is needed to ¶ mitigate long-standing grievances.
Empirical Data proves education greatest internal link to militancy
Winthrom and Graff 10 (Rebecca and Corinne, Fellow and Co-Director of the Center for Universal Education at Brookings and Fellow in the Center for Universal Education at Brookings, “BEYOND MADRASAS ASSESSING THE LINKS BETWEEN EDUCATION AND MILITANCY IN PAKISTAN”, Center for Universal Education at Brookings, June 2010, page 21, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/6/pakistan20education20winthrop/06_pakistan_education_winthrop.pdf)
T¶ he Pakistani government’s failure to provide ¶ adequate access to high-quality
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cut the risk of continued con?ict ¶ by nearly three-quarters.75
Increasing educational possibilities for women in Pakistan substantially reduces the number of terrorists and terrorist attacks
Afzal 2012 (Madiha, Professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Maryland, Are the better educated less likely to support militancy and terrorism? Women are., August 2012, Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland, www.cissm.umd.edu/papers/files/are_the_better_educated_less_likely_to_support_militancy_and_terrorismfinal101512.pdf, page 28)
A great deal of research has shown that educating girls is important for various household
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views on militancy could be an important strategy in countering support for terrorism.
Terrorism
A2: Link – Drones Work – Al Qaeda
Drones are the best way of reaching Al Qaeda
Plaw 12 (Avery, associate professor of political science at the University of Massachusetts, Dartmouth, November 14, “Drones Save Lives, American and Other” http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/09/25/do-drone-attacks-do-more-harm-than-good/drone-strikes-save-lives-american-and-other)
This is a tough call. Drone warfare has done a lot of good for
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ethically: where civilian casualties cannot be avoided, they must be minimized.
Drones destroy terror cells – many reasons
Metz 2013 (Justin Metz, April, 2013, thesis for the Degree of Bachelor of Arts with Departmental Honors in Government for the Wesleyan University Honors College, “The Drone Wars: Uncovering the Dynamics and Scope of United States Drone Strikes” http://wesscholar.wesleyan.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2019andcontext=etd_hon_theses)
In the United States case, because US goals are focused on long-term
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strikes are solely responsible for the increased militant attacks on host nations.”90
insurgent attacks. ¶
Decapitation works against Al Qaeda
Simcox 12 (Robin, research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society in London and the coauthor of "Islamist Terrorism: The British Connections," May 24, “Killing Al Qaeda's leaders: It works” http://articles.latimes.com/2012/may/24/opinion/la-oe-simcox-targeted-killings-work-20120524)
In the year since President Obama approved a successful raid against Osama bin Laden,
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.S. is not contributing to Al Qaeda's mythology but destroying it.
A2: Link – Drones Work – Decapitation
Decapitation works—it takes out key pieces of terrorist operations, keeps leaders on the run, and creates infighting that causes organizations to collapse.
Wilner 10, (Alex S. Wilner, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Targeted Killings in Afghanistan: Measuring Coercion and Deterrence in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 33 No. 4, 09 Mar 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10576100903582543)
For smaller terrorist groups and cells, where leadership, knowledge, and power are
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reveal that it had everything to do with the absence of strong leadership.
Targeted killing deters—key leaders are worn down and still are still motivated by a desire to live.
Wilner 10, (Alex S. Wilner, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Targeted Killings in Afghanistan: Measuring Coercion and Deterrence in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 33 No. 4, 09 Mar 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10576100903582543)
The literature on targeted killings suggests that they effect the motivation of individuals involved in
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can set in and with that, a change in motivation and behavior.
Decapitation strategy effective with drones, it destroys operational capability and training, and also take out lower level insurgents
Young 2012 (Alex, associate staff @ Harvard International Review, “A Defense of Drones”, February 25 2013, http://hir.harvard.edu/a-defense-of-drones)
Critics also claim that eliminating only the senior leaders of terrorist organizations does not make
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- the idea that these strikes only kill senior officials is a myth.
Qualities of terrorist groups makes them uniquely susceptible to decapitation strategies
Price 2012 (Bryan C. former assistant professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy and Director of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, “Leadership Decapitation and the End of Terrorist ”, June 27 2012, http://www.fairobserver.com/article/leadership-decapitation-and-end-terrorist-groups)
Leadership decapitation has largely failed to produce desired policy results against organizations other than terrorist
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groups feature all three characteristics, however, leadership decapitation accelerates their demise.
Long term studies show that terrorist groups are very susceptible to decapitation, and killing is effective
Price 2012 (Bryan C. former assistant professor in the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy and Director of the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, “Targeting Top
Terrorists: How Leadership Decapitation Contributes to Counterterrorism”, International Security, Volume 4, Issue 36, Spring 2012, http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/files/Price.pdf, p. 43-44)
This article has advanced an argument that runs counter to the near scholarly¶ consensus
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religious terrorist groups play in framing and interpreting organizational¶ goals and strategies.
Targeted killing works—5 warrants.
Morehouse 11, (Matthew A. Morehouse, University of Nebraska – Lincoln, Department of Political Science—Thesis, Hellfire and Grey Drones: An Empirical Examination of the Effectiveness of Targeted Killings, May 1, 2011, http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscitheses/8/)
Taking the qualitative data in its totality, it appears that the United States’ targeted
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structures and tactics in order to better withstand the occurrence of targeted killings.
A2: Link – Drones Work – Empirics
Drones are effective- eliminate important terrorist human capital and prevent communication and training
Byman 2013 (Daniel L., Research Director of Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington's Weapon of Choice”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/06/17-drones-obama-weapon-choice-us-counterterrorism-byman)
The Obama administration relies on drones for one simple reason: they work. According
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forcing the group to choose between having no leaders and risking dead leaders.
Drones are strongly correlated with reductions in terrorist violence
Johnston and Sarbahi 2013 (Patrick B., associate political scientist at the RAND Corporation and Ph.D. in Political Science at Northwestern University, Anoop K., PhD in political science from UCLA, “The Impact of U.S. Drone Strikes on Terrorism in Pakistan and Afghanistan”, July 2013, http://patrickjohnston.info/materials/drones.pdf, p. 22)
This paper offers a systematic analysis of the relationship between U.S. drone
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can alter conventionally accepted “logics of violence” in civil war.¶ 48
Drones are preferable to other strategies
Byman 2013 (Daniel L., Research Director of Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington's Weapon of Choice”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/06/17-drones-obama-weapon-choice-us-counterterrorism-byman)
Critics of drone strikes often fail to take into account the fact that the alternatives
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politically palatable for the United States to kill rather than detain suspected terrorists.
A2: Link - Drones Good - A2 Civilian Deaths/Blowback
Civilian deaths are few and decreasing, drones are effective at targeting and disrupting terrorists
Young 2012 (Alex, associate staff @ Harvard International Review, “A Defense of Drones”, February 25 2013, http://hir.harvard.edu/a-defense-of-drones)
This strategy is not without controversy. The Obama administration’s heavy use of unmanned drones
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also help to mitigate anti-American sentiment that stems from civilian casualties.
Local information shows that civilian casualties are tiny
Bergen and Rowland 2012 (Peter, director at the New America Foundation, Jennifer, program associate at the New America Foundation, “Civilian casualties plummet in drone strikes”, July 14 2012, http://www.cnn.com/2012/07/13/opinion/bergen-civilian-casualties)
According to a 2010 report by the Campaign for Innocent Victims in Conflict, a
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civilian casualties for all of the 141 strikes during that same time period.
Drones have minimal civilian casualties and are the best option in the regard
Byman 2013 (Daniel L., Research Director of Saban Center for Middle East Policy, “Why Drones Work: The Case for Washington's Weapon of Choice”, Foreign Affairs, July/August 2013, http://www.brookings.edu/research/articles/2013/06/17-drones-obama-weapon-choice-us-counterterrorism-byman)
But even the most unfavorable estimates of drone casualties reveal that the ratio of civilian
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the data show that drones are more discriminate than other types of force.
A2: Link - Drones Good - A2 Recruitment
Overall levels of violence may increase, but the effectiveness and impact of those attacks goes way down. Prefer our comparative evidence here—violence has to be evaluated in terms of frequency and magnitude.
Wilner 10, (Alex S. Wilner, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Targeted Killings in Afghanistan: Measuring Coercion and Deterrence in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 33 No. 4, 09 Mar 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10576100903582543)
Generally, overall violence increased following the targeted eliminations (Figure 2). This was
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and off-duty police commanders, rather than hardened, military actors.
Their objections over-simplify the data—drone strikes drastically decrease the effectiveness and impact of terrorist operations.
Wilner 10, (Alex S. Wilner, Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Targeted Killings in Afghanistan: Measuring Coercion and Deterrence in Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency, Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, Vol. 33 No. 4, 09 Mar 2010, http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10576100903582543)
First, overall levels of violence do not, on their own, offer robust
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literature on targeted killings while difficulties in recruitment relates to deterrence by punishment.
Backlash may occur, but lethality rates will drop—the case of Israel proves.
Byman 6, (Daniel Byman, Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/20031914)
In addition to boosting Israeli morale, the policy has helped in more concrete ways
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expertise, these new recruits will not pose the same kind of threat.
Testimony from terrorists proves—targeted killings wear them down and don’t increase recruitment.
Byman 6, (Daniel Byman, Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/20031914)
To avoid elimination, the terrorists must constantly change locations, keep those locations secret
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been seriously weakened by the decimation of its ranks through assassination and arrest.”
Backlash is only temporary—civilians on the ground care much more about eliminating terrorism.
Byman 6, (Daniel Byman, Director of the Center for Peace and Security Studies and of the Security Studies Program at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, Do Targeted Killings Work?, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2006, http://www.jstor.org/stable/10.2307/20031914)
Moreover, although Israel’s recent killing campaign did create a new crop of Palestinian martyrs
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successor, Mahmoud Abbas, is more willing to cooperate in fighting terrorism.
A2: Impact – AQAP - Threat Overblown
AQAP threat overblown
Spencer 2011( James,retired infantry commander who specialized in low intensity conflict, strategic analyston political, security, and trade issues of the Middle East and North Africa and a specialist on Yemen, “Al-QA’IDA IN THE ARABIAN PENNINSULA: MO’S AND DEDUCTIONS”, August 19, 2011, http://smallwarsjournal.com/sites/default/files/839-spencer.pdf, Page 1)
There has been extensive discussion of and assertions about al-Qa?ida in
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(and operating divisions), its various Intents and deduces its key weaknesses.
AQAP is not a threat to the US.
Gerges 2012(Fawaz, Professor of International relations, London School of Economics, “The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative”, January 03, http://books.google.com/books?id=GVi4_XzxrXUCandpg=PA143andlpg=PA143anddq=AQAP+gergesandsource=blandots=J8rIR9uWxfandsig=IL0iA4_oE3nYaGoaGITxCmlTt0Iandhl=enandsa=Xandei=GEP7UYCaEciViALcmIAIandved=0CFAQ6AEwBg#v=onepageandq=AQAP20gergesandf=false, Page 143)
Despite the present dangers posed by AQAP, it seriously threatens neither the survival of
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, political economy, and good governance as more effective remedies for extremism.
Al Qaeda is not a threat. It is a very small, weak organization. Its ranks have dwindled. AQAP has no more than between 50 and 300 core operatives with little experience.
Seale 2011(Patrick, commentator and author of several books on Middle East affairs, “America’s Al Qaida Obsession”, November 11, 2011, http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/america-s-al-qaida-obsession-1.928024)
His basic argument is that Al Qaida is by no means the strategic, existential
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Al Qaida’s failed ideology and expand the worldwide circle of the West’s enemies.
A2: Impact – No Nuclear Terrorism
No nuclear terrorism –statistically insignificant cumulative probability
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p, 187-190
Assigning a probability that terrorists will be able to overcome each barrier is, of
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secured than they were 10 or , .-s 15 years ago.19
Too many obstacles to overcome – even if overcoming isn’t impossible – even generous odds ensure the chances of success are 1 in 3 billion statistically – small enough to vote on presumption
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 197-8
As Allison appropriately points out, it is important to consider not only the likelihood
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or even lower than, those for a thermonuclear attack from Russia.’
This ensures terrorists wont have the motivation
Michael A. Levi (Fellow for Science and Technology) 4/19/2007 “How Likely is a Nuclear Terrorist Attack on the United States?”, Council on Foreign Relations, http://www.cfr.org/publication/13097/
Yet from a terrorist perspective the prospect of a fizzle or a dud might change
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no reason to assume that al-Qaeda would choose such a course.
Cant build one
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 173-4
Some observers have insisted that it would be "easy" for terrorists to assemble
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is jU. processed:' and both require special machining technology.4
They cant get it from anyone else
John Mueller (Woody Hayes Chair of National Security Studies, Mershon Center, and is professor of Political Science, at Ohio State University) 2010 “Atomic Obsession: Nuclear Alarmism from Hiroshima to Al Qaeda” p. 163-5
One route a would-be atomic terrorist might take would be to be given
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support they would need if they ever tried again to run Afghanistan.12
A2: Impact – A2: Terror Experts
“Terrorism experts” are hacks.
Greenwald 2012 (Glenn Greenwald, former Constitutional and civil rights litigator, August 15, 2012, “The sham ‘terrorism expert’ industry,” Salon, http://www.salon.com/2012/08/15/the_sham_terrorism_expert_industry/)
But there’s a very similar and at least equally important (though far less discussed
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arrive at a final destination. If you were him, would you?
The popular uprisings has painted Al-Qaeda as the greatest threat to the West. However, despite Osama bin Laden’s killing and its decreasing numbers, Al Qaeda is still a threat based in myth and sustained by so called “experts” and national security industry.
Gerges 2012(Fawaz, Professor of International relations, London School of Economics, “The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative”, January 03, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fawaz-gerges/the-rise-and-fall-of-alqa_b_1182003.html)
The popular uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain
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only be eradicated when the fantasies around the group are laid to rest.
It is a myth that Al Qaeda has been active for over two decades.
Gerges 2012(Fawaz, Professor of International relations, London School of Economics, “The Rise and Fall of Al Qaeda: Debunking the Terrorism Narrative”, January 03, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/fawaz-gerges/the-rise-and-fall-of-alqa_b_1182003.html)
Contrary to the conventional terrorism narrative, Al-Qaeda has not been a functional
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in the mid-1990s where he combined business practices with ideological indoctrination.
Solvency
Doesn’t Solve Effectiveness
Drone court doesn’t appropriately promote effective control over drones.
Roth 2013 (Kenneth Roth, Executive Director of Human Rights Watch, April 4, 2013, “What Rules Should Govern US Drone Attacks?,” New York Review of Books, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2013/apr/04/what-rules-should-govern-us-drone-attacks/?pagination=false)
Whatever the rules governing drone attacks, many object to the covert, unilateral way
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. But the administration has blocked such suits through various claims of secrecy.
Drone court can’t solve – too many legal hurdles.
Rosen 2013
(Jeffrey, professor of law at The George Washington University and the legal affairs editor of The New Republic, "Courting disaster: A new idea to limit drones could actually legitimize them,” The New Republic, February 11, 2013, http://www.newrepublic.com/article/112392/drone-courts-congress-should-exercise-oversight-instead# accessed 8/2)
On Sunday, Robert Gates, the former Pentagon chief for Presidents Obama and Bush
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the president from exercising his war powers without getting judicial approval in advance.
Doesn’t Solve Executive Power
Drone court doesn’t check the executive.
Roma 2013 (Gabor Roma, international legal director at Human Rights First, February 27, 2013, “The pro-rule of law argument against a 'drone court',” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/judicial/285041-the-pro-rule-of-law-argument-against-a-drone-court#ixzz2W7ZqeRtN)
The instinct to regulate the government's claimed unilateral killing power is understandable. But a
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stamp, creating only the appearance, not the reality, of justice.
Doesn’t Solve Hegemony
Doesn’t solve soft power or relations adv
Roma 2013 (Gabor Roma, international legal director at Human Rights First, February 27, 2013, “The pro-rule of law argument against a 'drone court',” The Hill, http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/judicial/285041-the-pro-rule-of-law-argument-against-a-drone-court#ixzz2W7ZqeRtN)
But a “drone court” would be worse than ineffective: it would harm
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act to take place in the future would seem to violate this restriction.
Doesn’t Solve International Precedent
Sets the OPPOSITE international precedent--- rubber stamping
Vladeck 2013 (Steve Vladeck, professor of law and the associate dean for scholarship at American University Washington College of Law, February 10, 2013, “Why a “Drone Court” Won’t Work–But (Nominal) Damages Might…,” Lawfare Blog, http://www.lawfareblog.com/2013/02/why-a-drone-court-wont-work/)
That brings me to perhaps the biggest problem we should all have with a “
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and practically possible, a drone court would be a very dangerous idea.
Doesn’t Solve Terrorism
The plan codifies the bad practices of the squo
Greenwald 2013 (Glenn Greenwald, former Constitutional and civil rights litigator, May 3, 2013, “The bad joke called 'the FISA court' shows how a 'drone court' would work,” The Guardian, http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/03/fisa-court-rubber-stamp-drones)
The rationale offered is the same as what was used to justify the Fisa court
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to replicate its behavior in the context of presidential executions is really mystifying.
Off Case Toolbox
Executive Restraint CP
The President should exercise self-restraint in drone policy
Zenko 13 (Micah, Dr. Zenko is a Douglas Dillon fellow in the Center for Preventive Action (CPA) at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), he worked for five years at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government, and in Washington, DC, at the Brookings Institution, Congressional Research Service, and State Department's Office of Policy Planning, Council Special Report No.65, January 2013, Reforming US Drone Strike Policies, i.cfr.org/content/publications/attachments/Drones_CSR65.pdf)
The president of the United States should¶ ?? limit targeted killings to individuals who
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in warfare in response to ground-based antiaircraft fire or aerial combat).
Executive action solves best – nations respond to behavior not legal standards
Roberts 13 (Kristin, When the Whole World Has Drones, National Journal, 21 March 2013, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/when-the-whole-world-has-drones-20130321, da 8-1-13) PC
But even without raising standards, tightening up drone-specific restrictions in the standing
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operations manual for other nations but a legal and moral one as well.
Executive compliance with international norms sends a signal to other states with drones
Twomey, Trinity College Dublin, 13 (Laura, Setting a Global Precedent: President Obama's Codification of Drone Warfare, Cambridge Journal of International and Comparative Law, 14 March 2013, http://www.cjicl.org.uk/index.php/cjicl-blog/setting-a-global-precedent-president-obamas-codification-of-drone-warfare, da 7-31-13) PC
It is clear that, as the first State to deploy remote targeting technology in
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warfare, a model which lacks a clear enemy and a demarcated battlefield.
The Executive alone can set standards for the international community
Zakaria 13 (Tabassum, U.S. Drone Policy: Obama Seeking To Influence Global Guidelines, Reuters, 17 March 2013, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/17/us-drone-policy-obama_n_2895015.html, da 7-30-13) PC
President Barack Obama, who vastly expanded U.S. drone strikes against terrorism suspects overseas under the cloak of secrecy, is now openly seeking to influence global guidelines for their use as China and other countries pursue their own drone programs.¶ The United States was the first to use unmanned aircraft fitted with missiles to kill militant suspects in the years after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington.¶ But other countries are catching up. China's interest in unmanned aerial vehicles was displayed in November at an air show. According to state-run newspaper Global Times, China had considered conducting its first drone strike to kill a suspect in the 2011 murder of 13 Chinese sailors, but authorities decided they wanted the man alive so they could put him on trial.¶ "People say what's going to happen when the Chinese and the Russians get this technology? The president is well aware of those concerns and wants to set the standard for the international community on these tools," said Tommy Vietor, until earlier this month a White House spokesman.¶ As U.S. ground wars end - over in Iraq, drawing to a close in Afghanistan - surgical counterterrorism targeting has become "the new normal," Vietor said.¶ Amid a debate within the U.S. government, it is not yet clear what new standards governing targeted killings and drone strikes the White House will develop for U.S. operations or propose for global rules of the road.¶ Obama's new position is not without irony. The White House kept details of drone operations - which remain largely classified - out of public view for years when the U.S. monopoly was airtight.¶ That stance is just now beginning to change, in part under pressure from growing public and Congressional discomfort with the drone program. U.S. lawmakers have demanded to see White House legal justifications for targeting U.S. citizens abroad, and to know whether Obama thinks he has the authority to use drones to kill Americans on U.S. soil.¶ On Friday, a three-judge federal appeals court panel unanimously ruled that the CIA gave an inadequate response to a lawsuit brought by the American Civil Liberties Union seeking records about drone strikes. The CIA had said it could neither confirm nor deny whether it had drone records because of security concerns.¶ The judge who wrote the ruling noted that the president had publicly acknowledged that the United States uses drone strikes against al Qaeda.¶ LETHAL ACTION¶ Strikes by missile-armed Predator and Reaper drones against terrorism suspects overseas began under former President George W. Bush and were expanded by Obama.¶ The ramp-up started in 2008, the last year of Bush's term, when there were 35 air strikes in Pakistan, and escalated under Obama to a peak of 117 in 2010, according to The Long War Journal ( http://www.longwarjournal.org/pakistan-strikes.php ).¶ That jump in use of armed drones resulted from the authorization to use "signature" strikes, which allowed targeting terrorism suspects based on behavior and other characteristics without knowing their actual identity, a U.S. official said on condition of anonymity.¶ Caitlin Hayden, a spokeswoman for the White House National Security Council, said the administration is committed to explaining to Congress and the public as much as possible about its drone policies, including how decisions to strike are made.¶ "We are constantly working to refine, clarify, and strengthen the process for considering terrorist targets for lethal action," Hayden said.¶ The administration recognizes "we are establishing standards other nations may follow," she said.¶ James Lewis, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank, said other countries, including Russia, have unarmed reconnaissance drones. China says it has an armed drone, but "we don't know if it works," he said.¶ "Getting agreement on the applicability of existing humanitarian law to the new technologies is crucial," he said, because China and Russia do not endorse applying laws of armed conflict to new military technologies.
CMR DA
Targeted Killing is most effective under the military – oversight collapses CMR
Baron ’13 (Kevin, 03/18/13, national security reporter for Foreign Policy, covering defense and military issues in Washington, Foreign Policy, “Jeh Johnson, drone court "skeptic," argues targeted killing best left to military,” http://e-ring.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2013/03/18/jeh_johnson_drone_court_skeptic_argues_targeted_killing_best_left_to_military) BVG
Jeh Johnson, the Pentagon’s top lawyer until three months ago, is skeptical of
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as I can tell, the world has not come to an end.”
Politics DA
Drone court is unpopular – empirics.
Hosenball 13 (Mark, “Support grows for U.S. "drone court" to review lethal strikes”, Reuters, 2-8-13, http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/09/us-usa-drones-idUSBRE91800B20130209, RSR)
In the past, Obama administration officials have expressed a lack of interest when the
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target court, human rights advocates would still likely have problems with it.
Drone court is unpopular – public polls prove.
LaFranchi 13 (Howard, Staff Writer, “American public has few qualms with drone strikes, poll finds”, Christian Science Monitor, 6-3-13, http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Military/2013/0603/American-public-has-few-qualms-with-drone-strikes-poll-finds, RSR)
Americans are by and large comfortable with drone strikes being ordered by the president,
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the post-9/11 concept of a “war on terrorism.”
Terrorism DA
Look at all the drone good cards in the terror advantage answers.
Indefinite Detention
*A2: Solvency
Congress Fails – Executive Power Key
Congressional oversight is bad, broad executive war powers key to WOT
Yoo 2006 (John Yoo, deputy assistant attorney general from 2001 to 2003, professor at the University of California at Berkeley School of Law, September 2006, “How the Presidency Regained Its Balance,” AEI, http://67.208.89.102/files/2006/09/25/20060925_YooOTIPresidentialPower.pdf)
To his critics, President Bush is a “King¶ George” bent on
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, and spend taxpayer revenues in the national interest—not to micromanage.
Civilian Courts Fail—Laundry List
Congressional bans prevent detainee travel and jurisdictions refuse to accept detainees to be tried—also undermines the legal system
Mataconis 2011(Doug, Attorney, JD from George Mason University School of Law, April 4, "Obama Administration To Abandon Plans For Civilian Trials For 9/11 Plotters", http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/obama-administration-to-abandon-plans-for-civilian-trials-for-911-plotters/)
After a quixotic two year search for a proper venue and process for a civilian
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to be detained. That’s not justice, it’s a Stalinist show trial.
Civilian Courts Fail—Erodes Legal Systsem
Trying terrorists in civilian courts undermines the legal system—that turns the aff
Blitstein 2008(Ryan, Pacific Standard Staff, July 11, "Terror Trials May Distort Civilian Courts", http://www.psmag.com/politics/terror-trials-may-distort-civilian-courts-4432/)
Last month, the U.S. Supreme Court reversed the Bush administration,
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were to remove many cases from the federal courts system,” he said.
Civilian Court Fails—Can’t Prosecute
Logistical barriers prevent trials in civilian courts
Perazzo 2007(John, Front Page Magazine, February 6, "Why Civilian Trials for Terrorists are a Bad Idea", http://www.leatherneck.com/forums/archive/index.php/t-41241.html)
Apart from the question of whether military tribunals are a good idea philosophically, trying
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courage for dealing aggressively with those who would seek to destroy their country.
Civilian Courts Bad—Terorism
Enforcing civilian trials prevents intelligence gathering—that’s uniquely key to prevent another attack
WND 2013(WND, independent news company dedicated to uncompromising journalism, seeking truth and justice and revitalizing the role of the free press as a guardian of liberty, March 10, "Obama 'Rewarding' Terrorists With Civilian Trials", http://www.wnd.com/2013/03/obama-rewarding-terrorists-with-civilian-trials/)
McCarthy admitted that he and fellow prosecutors have amassed a strong conviction record against terrorist
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the civilian justice system, which means you don’t get to interrogate them.”
Civilian trials provide unique intelligence opportunities for terrorists
Mukasey 2009(Michael, Former US attorney general, October 19, "Civilian Courts Are No Place to Try Terrorists", http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107204574475300052267212.html)
The challenges of a terrorism trial are overwhelming. To maintain the security of the
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vetting topics in closed sessions before they can be presented in open ones.
*A2: Leadership Advantage
A2: Human Rights Cred—Plan Insufficient
Plan can’t solve Human Rights—too many alt causes and institutional barriers
Nossel 2008(Suzanne, Guardian Staff, November 19, "Closing Gitmo is just the beginning", http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/nov/19/obama-guantanamo-human-rights)
While abuses carried out as part of the fight against terrorism cost the US its
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wider human rights agenda could make closing Guantánamo look like the easy part.
A2: Human Rights Cred—Doesn’t Solve
Rights credibility fails
Donnelly 2002(Jack, Professor of International Studies at the University of Denver, "Globalization and Human Rights", Page 230)
Second, the implicit “liberal” justifactory theory of the Universal Declaration is frequently
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what should be created in their place, or how to get there.
A2: Soft Power—Alt Cause: Wiretapping
The aff can’t solve—outrage over wiretapping
Jordans and DiLorenzo 2013(Frank and Sarah, Boston Globe Staff, July 1, "Kerry tries to quell European outrage over NSA eavesdropping", http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2013/07/01/kerry-tries-quell-european-outrage-over-nsa-eavesdropping/i53kOnIwOOfb9BGM5fzkmM/story.html)
French President Francois Hollande demanded on Monday that the United States immediately stop its alleged
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series of revelations of US eavesdropping leaked by former NSA contractor Edward Snowden.
A2: Soft Power—Fails
Soft power is a false concept—only wealth and power affect influence
Doctorow 2013(Gilbert, Research Fellow of the American University in Moscow, May 20, "Soft power is largely an American PR gimmick", http://english.ruvr.ru/2013_05_20/Soft-power-is-largely-an-American-PR-gimmick/)
There is not much in all of this for the Kremlin to use in furtherance
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China can do to further their soft power is to get richer quick.
Soft power doesn’t work—military power is the only influence
Fan 2007 (Ying, Senior Lecturer in Marketing at Brunel Business School, Brunel University in London, November 14, “Soft power: Power of attraction or confusion?”)
Despite its popularity, the concept soft power remains a power of confusion. The
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admire American technological superiority and super brands but detest its policies on Taiwan.
A2: Soft Power—Doesn’t Solve Heg
Soft power doesn’t solve heg—it’s only a byproduct of leadership
Layne 2002 (Christopher, visiting fellow in foreign policy studies at Cato, October 6, “The Power Paradox”, http://articles.latimes.com/2002/oct/06/opinion/op-layne6)
U.S. strategists believe that "it can't happen to us," because
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want a free hand, not to have its hands tied by others.
A2: Russian Collapse—No Impact
Russia is stable and the impact is empirically denied
Zavinovsky 12 (2-7-12- Konstantin Zavinovsky is editor of "Geopolitics" magazine and researcher at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences (ISAG) "Political And Economic Stability In Russia Will Attract Foreign Investment" Claims Institute; ROME, February 7, 2012 /PRNewswire/ -- http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/political-and-economic-stability-in-russia-will-attract-foreign-investment-claims-institute-138864439.html
Konstantin Zavinovsky of the Institute of Advanced Studies in Geopolitics and Auxiliary Sciences, has
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well-being and thus to remain an attractive country for foreign investment."
A2: Russian Relations—No Solvency
A host of alt causes means no relations solvency.
Cohen 12 (Ariel, Senior Research Fellow in Russian and Eurasian Studies and International Energy Policy in the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, a division of the Kathryn and Shelby Cullom Davis Institute for International Studies, at The Heritage Foundation, ‘12
Ph.D., “How the U.S. Should Deal with Putin’s Russia”, 3-7-12
http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/03/how-the-us-should-deal-with-putins-russia)
Vladimir Putin’s victory in Russia’s presidential election was marred with fraud, but nevertheless he
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, not engage in a self-deluding feel-good policy exercise.
A2: Russian Relations—No Impact
Relations are useless
Ostapenko 9 (E. Ostapenko, Trend Daily News, 2009. “Normalization in U.S.-Russian relations not to change political situation in world: analyst at French studies institute,” p. Lexis)
Normalization of relations between the United States and Russia will not assume a global significance
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a descent relationship with Russia and not totally antagonistic one," said Moisi.
A2: Alliances—No Impact
Alliances don’t solve anything – Gulf War proves that countries will hate us no matter what.
Krauthammer, ‘3 (Charles, The National Interest, Winter 2002/2003)
A third critique comes from what might be called pragmatic realists, who see the
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the international system, not by the details of our management of it.
A2: Heg—No Impact
Heg doesn’t solve war
Fettweis 2010(Christopher, Professor of National Security Affairs at the U.S. Naval War College, April, “Threat and Anxiety in US Foreign Policy,” Survival, Volume 52, Issue 2 )
One potential explanation for the growth of global peace can be dismissed fairly quickly:
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to reach the conclusion that world peace and US military expenditure are unrelated.
No transition wars
MacDonald and Parent 2011(Paul, Assistant Professor of Political Science at Williams College, and Joseph, Assistant Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami, Spring, "Graceful Decline?", International Security, Volume 35, No. 4, Spring 2011, pp. 7-44)
In this article, we question the logic and evidence of the retrenchment pessimists.
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failed to retrench recovered their relative position. Pg. 9-10¶
Offensive Cyber Operations
Solvency Answers
Congressional Oversight Fails
Congressional oversight over the declaratory policy fails – too fragmented and controlled by lobbyists.
Clarke and Knake ‘12 (Richard (former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and Counter-terrorism for the United States) and Robert (Cybersecurity and homeland security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations), Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It, Harper Collins Books, 2012, RSR)
Congress is a federation of fiefdoms, subject to the vicissitudes of constant fund raising
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as public financing of congressional campaigns or meaningful¶ limits on campaign contributions.
Declaratory Policy Fails
Declaratory policy can’t solve – doesn’t spillover and multiple other factors overwhelm it.
Kanuck, ‘10 (Sean, J.D. from Harvard University, “Sovereign Discourse on Cyber Conflict Under International Law”, Texas Law Review, Vol. 88, 2010, RSR)
This Article will expand the Symposium’s dialogue on law, information ¶ technology, and
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how nation-states ultimately manage cyber conflicts among themselves in the future.
Declaratory policies fail – no deterrence and they’re not ends in themselves.
Lukasik, ‘10 (Stephen, Georgia Institute of Technology, “A Framework for Thinking About Cyber
Conflict and Cyber Deterrence with Possible Declaratory Policies for These Domains”, Proceedings of a Workshop on Deterring CyberAttacks: Informing Strategies and Developing Options for U.S. Policy, 2010, RSR)
Deterrence, on the Cold War retaliation model, is unlikely to be effective in
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beneficial use of the cyber commons. They are seeds, not trees.
No Effective Check
Congress cannot effectively enforce the declaration – can’t appropriately check the executive.
Lorber 2013(Eric, J.D. Candidate at the University of Pennsylvania Law School, and Ph. D candidate at Duke University, January, "Executive Warmaking Authority and Offensive Cyber Operations: Can Existing Legislation Successfully Constrain Presidential Power?”, Journal of Constitutional Law, Vol. 15:3)
The lack of congressional oversight of offensive cyber operations under the Intelligence Authorization Act also
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, giving the President an increasingly powerful foreign policy tool outside congressional reach.
No First Use Makes Us More Vulnerable
No first use fails with cyber operations – leave us defenseless and no clear definition of use.
Clarke and Knake ‘12 (Richard (former National Coordinator for Security, Infrastructure Protection, and Counter-terrorism for the United States) and Robert (Cybersecurity and homeland security expert at the Council on Foreign Relations), Cyber War: The Next Threat to National Security and What to Do About It, Harper Collins Books, 2012, RSR)
However, forswearing the use of cyber weapons until they have been used on us
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kinetic shooting. Once a war goes kinetic, most bets are off.
No First Use Fails – China Says No
No first use fails – China will say no.
Austin and Gady ‘12 (Greg (former Vice President for the Worldwide Security Initiative) and Franz-Stefan (fellow at the EastWest Institute, where he was a program associate and founding member of the Worldwide Cybersecurity Initiative), “CYBER Detente¶ BETWEEN THE UNITED¶ STATES AND CHINA:¶ SHAPING THE AGENDA”, EastWest Institute, 2012, RSR)
A CICIR participant raised the issue of a “nofirst-¶ use” agreement among
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¶ though the “line between civilian and military¶ infrastructure is blurred.”
Patriotic Hackers Mean No Solvency
Aff can’t solve – patriotic hackers make crisis management impossible
Owens et al 9
(William A. Owens, as an Admiral in the United States Navy and later Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Kenneth W. Dam, served as Deputy Secretary of the Treasury from 2001 to 2003, where he specialized in international economic development, Herbert S. Lin, Senior Scientist and Study, “Technology, Policy, Law, and Ethics Regarding U.S. Acquisition and Use of Cyberattack Capabilities” 4/27/2009, http://www.lawfareblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/NRC-Report.pdf, KB)
Past experience strongly indicates that conflict or increased tension ¶ between two nations will result
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, even if there ¶ were in fact no patriotic hackers doing anything.
Cyber War Adv
OCOs Limited Now
Offensive cyber operations are limited now, but mobility is key to prevent national security threats
Fisher 2013(Max, Washington Post Staff, 2013, "Leaked documents hint at Obama’s emerging cyberwar doctrine", http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2013/06/07/leaked-documents-hint-at-obamas-emerging-cyberwar-doctrine/)
President Obama has tasked senior national security and intelligence officials with preparing a list of
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” capabilities, something that is forbidden under U.S. law.
Status quo solves limits for cyber aggression
Nakashima 2012(Ellen, Washington Post staff writer, November 14, "Obama signs secret directive to help thwart cyberattacks", http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-signs-secret-cybersecurity-directive-allowing-more-aggressive-military-role/2012/11/14/7bf51512-2cde-11e2-9ac2-1c61452669c3_story.html)
President Obama has signed a secret directive that effectively enables the military to act more
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a higher level of scrutiny from relevant agencies and generally White House permission.
Cyber operations won’t be the first line of defense—no risk of cyber preemption
Nakashima 2012(Ellen, Washington Post staff writer, November 14, "Obama signs secret directive to help thwart cyberattacks", http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/obama-signs-secret-cybersecurity-directive-allowing-more-aggressive-military-role/2012/11/14/7bf51512-2cde-11e2-9ac2-1c61452669c3_story.html)
But repeated efforts by officials to ensure that the Cyber Command has that flexibility have
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officials. “We don’t want to have more consequences than we intend.”
Status quo limitations are sufficient—models armed conflict
Brennan 2012(John, Lieutenant Cololel, March 15, "United States Counter Terrorism Cyber Law and Policy, Enabling or Disabling?", http://nsfp.web.unc.edu/files/2012/09/Brennan_UNITED-STATES-COUNTER-TERRORISM-CYBER-LAW-AND-POLICY.pdf)
While Congress was pursuing legislative change, DoD leadership began to codify a list of
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a policy to govern the use of weapon s of mass destruction . 69
New doctrinal changes solve—especially in context of China
Austin 2012(Greg, professorial fellow at the East West Institute, senior visiting fellow at King’s College, October 15, "America's Challenging Cyber Defense Policy", http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2012/10/15/americas-challenging-cyber-defense-policy/)
The DoD foreshadowed some time ago that it would produce a new set of rules
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strategic nuclear forces, a relationship that has caused China some considerable consternation.
Pre-Emption Good—Key to Prevent Attacks
Preemption solves—we can prevent foreign attacks, and new tech prevents miscalc
Austin 2012(Greg, professorial fellow at the East West Institute, senior visiting fellow at King’s College, October 15, "America's Challenging Cyber Defense Policy", http://www.internationalpolicydigest.org/2012/10/15/americas-challenging-cyber-defense-policy/)
United States Pre-emptive and Deterrent Capability? Panetta talked of some amazing and
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“underscored the need to increase communication and transparency” on both sides.
Limitless offensive cyber operations key to deter threats—prevents war
Baker 2012(Stewart, first Assistant Secretary for Policy at the United States Department of Homeland Security under the Presidency of George W. Bush, October 19, "Law and Cyberwar-The Lessons of History", http://www.americanbar.org/groups/public_services/law_national_security/patriot_debates2/the_book_online/ch9/ch9_ess1.html)
So, why do today’s lawyers think that their limits on cyberwar will fare better
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lawyers for their thoughts. We can’t do it the other way around.
A2: China War
No cyber war with China—interdependence checks
Austin and Gady 2012(Greg, professorial fellow at the EastWest Institute and senior visiting fellow in the department of War Studies at King’s College London, and Franz-Stefan, associate and foreign policy analyst at the EastWest Institute, "Cyber Detente Between the united States and China: Shaping the Agenda", http://www.ewi.info/system/files/detente.pdf)
That said, the two countries’ economies, though very different in many respects,
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gradual infiltration of strategically significant economic ICT systems by hackers on both sides.
Interdependence is amplified in cyber war—the potential impacts prevent any potential conflict
Austin and Gady 2012(Greg, professorial fellow at the EastWest Institute and senior visiting fellow in the department of War Studies at King’s College London, and Franz-Stefan, associate and foreign policy analyst at the EastWest Institute, "Cyber Detente Between the united States and China: Shaping the Agenda", http://www.ewi.info/system/files/detente.pdf)
China and the United States do have a com-plementary interest in cooperating on
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from resorting to cyber war. Cyberspace only amplifies traditional interdependence in trade.
No US-China cyber war
Fox 2011 (Stuart Fox, Assistant Editor, July 2, 2011, “Why Cyberwar Is Unlikely,” Tech News Daily, http://www.technewsdaily.com/6962-cyberwar-unlikely-deterrence-cyber-war.html)
Even as more and more countries invest in the idea of cyberwarfare, cyberspace remains
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the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.
No US-China cyber war and no impact
Sanders 7/6 (Doug Sanders, author and journalist, “Our Computers Are Not Going to Kill Us: Cyber War is Military Fiction,” http://dougsaunders.net/2013/07/our-computers-are-not-going-to-kill-us-cyber-war-is-military-fiction/)
We tend to believe them. To those of us who grew up in the
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using bombs to do so (and bombs would be quicker and easier).
Can’t Solve Modeling and Squo Treaties Solve
US can’t solve modeling – the development of offensive capabilities is inevitable.
Libicki 2009(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Cyberdeterrence and Cyberwar", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2009/RAND_MG877.pdf)
Historically, arms control has always gone hand in hand with deter- rence and
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g., against cor- ruption). Such a world does not exist.
Treaties now solve and cyber war has passed a threshold of legitimacy
Libicki 2013(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR175/RAND_RR175.pdf)
All that noted, cyberwar has probably already passed the legitimization threshold. It may have done so, at least against military targets, back in 1999. 18 The United States and similarly capable countries are discussing efforts to delegitimize the use of cyberwar against certain classes of targets (e.g., hospitals). International consensus or even a treaty may result. If so, brandishing a capability to cross these norms would be problematic.
A2: U.S. Usage Causes Modeling
Cyberwarfare is different—usage causes defensive buildup, not offensive
Libicki 2012(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Crisis and Escalation in Cyberspace", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2012/RAND_MG1215.pdf)
Nevertheless, the logic that states have to develop offensive cyber-weapons because their
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out of such people well before they run out of money paying them.
Deterrence Prevents Modeling
Use is key to prevent attacks on anyone—also is key to heg
Libicki 2013(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR175/RAND_RR175.pdf)
Because the potential for cyberattacks arises from the target’s vulnerabilities coupled with the attacker’s ability
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state retaliates, its systems will still be vulnerable and perceived as such.
Attacks deter—create doubt potential aggressors
Libicki 2013(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR175/RAND_RR175.pdf)
An uncertainty-and-doubt strategy may work to the U.S.
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, there will be nothing that suggests which of these general fixes worked.
OCO’s deter international development of capabilities—destroys confidence in systems
Libicki 2013(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR175/RAND_RR175.pdf)
A great deal depends on what others are predisposed to believe about U.S
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g., Java) and document-presentation programs to feel very secure.
U.S. cyber attacks are more likely to prevent use of offensive cyber attacks against the US
Libicki 2013(Martin, Senior Management Scientist at the RAND Corporation, "Brandishing Cyberattack Capabilities", http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR100/RR175/RAND_RR175.pdf)
Can brandishing help dissuade other states from pursuing a network-centric high- technology
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centric warfare and conclude that they avoided the pitfalls of depending on technology.
A2: Cyberwar—Hype
Cyber war doesn’t happen—their evidence is all hype
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
A blitz of media, punditry and public pronouncements inform interested observers and policy makers
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world affairs and for developed nations in particular as many seem to believe.
A2: Cyberwar—Doesn’t Happen
Cyber war is comparatively unlikely
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Even the most successful forms of cyberwar (such as cyber espionage) do not
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Harbor is much more likely to occur at Pearl Harbor than in cyberspace.
Cyberwar won’t happen
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Since it is difficult to share operational details of planned attacks without compromising military effectiveness
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yet another set of technologies that extend existing disparities in power and influence.
Cyberwar won’t escalate to war—the only reasons to advance a cyber attack
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
U.S. Defense Secretary Panetta's warning that “the next Pearl Harbor”
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for terrestrial conflict, it is an even more encompassing barrier to cyberwar.
Cyber attacks won’t start until war will already happen—and damage is temporary and minimal
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Beyond questions of means and motive, two basic features make cyber warfare different from
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follow-on attacks with traditional military force to permanently weaken an enemy.
Cyberwar only augments traditional warfare—it doesn’t cause conflict
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
There is no reason to believe that cyberwar will be any more useful as an
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form of conflict, cyberwar is basically tied to conventional forms of warfare.
A2: Cyberwar—Doesn’t Escalate
Traditional deterrence models check escalation
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
An open question exists in any crisis about how far competitors are willing to escalate
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actual threats, terrestrial capabilities become pivotal in determining who exercises cyber capabilities.
A2: Deterrence Doesn’t Apply to Cyberwar
Their analysis of deterrence is wrong—deterrence still holds for cyber war, even if MAD isn’t applicable
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Perhaps with reason, but not with considerable clarity, experts on cyber security have
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, or even that it will be an important domain of future warfare.
A2: Surprise Attacks
Cyberattacks won’t influence decisions for a surprise attack
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
The notion of a devastating surprise attack is a particularly baroque aspect of cyberwar paranoia
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complex whole that increasingly distinguishes adept utilization of military force (Biddle 2004).
A2: Kills Heg/Soft Power
Cyber attacks can’t create long term power shifts
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Even if cyber attacks are available to weaker actors, their effectiveness will be stymied
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hierarchies, cyberwar will most likely function to perpetuate existing inequalities of influence.
A2: Cyberterror
No risk of cyberterror—anonymity makes it useless
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
Again the focus is on the potential for harm, while ignoring the motives and
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and is likely to make internet aggression all the more problematic for initiators.
No impact to cyber terrorism
Gartzke 2012(Erik, University of California, San Diego, December 7, "The Myth of Cyberwar: Bringing War on the Internet Back Down to Earth", http://dss.ucsd.edu/~egartzke/papers/cyberwar_12062012.pdf)
The events of September 11, 2001 animated the specter of insecurity in the western
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dimensions means that this is generally a process of leveling, not revolution.
Separation of Powers Advantage
Interbranch Conflict Inevitable
Inter branch conflict is non-unique and it inevitably balances out.
Rottinghaus ‘6 (Brandon, Assistant Professor in Political Science and Director of the Bureau of Public Affairs Research at the University of Idaho, “Putting the 2006 Bellwood Lecture in Context: Reflections on Executive-Legislative Power Sharing in Modern Foreign Policy Making,” 43 Idaho L. Rev. 1, 2006)
In particular, three historical peaks in the 20th Century characterize the ebb and flow
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3 (regarding "cruel treatment and torture") of the Geneva Convention.
Inter branch conflict is inevitable and cyclical.
Rottinghaus ‘6 (Brandon, Assistant Professor in Political Science and Director of the Bureau of Public Affairs Research at the University of Idaho, “Putting the 2006 Bellwood Lecture in Context: Reflections on Executive-Legislative Power Sharing in Modern Foreign Policy Making,” 43 Idaho L. Rev. 1, 2006)
The events of September 11, 2001 ushered in a complex reorganization of the nation
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, in which each seeks to profit from the other's needs and fears."
Inter-branch conflict is inevitable. The struggle for power created by the status quo prevents the domination of a single branch
Moe and Howell 99 (Terry (Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution) and William (Associate Professor in the Government Department at Harvard University, “Unilateral Action and Presidential power: A theory”, Presidential Studies Quarterly, Vol. 29, No. 4, December 1999)
It was also inevitable, however, that there would be a struggle for power
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than it did two hundred years ago. The struggle has transformed it.
OCO Doesn’t Hurt SOP
Lack of OCO oversight doesn’t disrupt SOP and plan makes OCO’s ineffective
Lorber ‘13
Eric, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Ph.D Candidate, Duke University
Department of Political Science. Journal Of Constitutional Law 15.3 https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/1773-lorber15upajconstl9612013. ETB
This Comment provides an initial answer to the question of whether ¶ current U.
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a developed understanding of these ¶ capabilities may problematically limit their effective use.
OCO’s don’t undermine SOP, but plan kills presidential flexibility
Lorber ‘13
Eric, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Ph.D Candidate, Duke University
Department of Political Science. Journal Of Constitutional Law 15.3 https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/1773-lorber15upajconstl9612013. ETB
This analysis suggests that, given inherent weaknesses in the underlying ¶ statutory schemes,
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giving the President an increasingly powerful foreign ¶ policy tool outside congressional reach.
Presidential Flexibility Terrorism Turn
Plan hurts presidential flexibility
Lorber ‘13
Eric, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Ph.D Candidate, Duke University
Department of Political Science. Journal Of Constitutional Law 15.3 https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/1773-lorber15upajconstl9612013. ETB
Despite falling into this category, however, such an offensive operation, ¶ for
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is very low and the executive should have little problem clearing ¶ it.
Presidential flexibility is key to solve terrorism.
Royal 11
JOHN PAUL ROYAL, Institute of World Politics, “War Powers and the Age of Terrorism,” Center¶ for the Study of the Presidency and Congress The Fellows Review, 2010-2011
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), especially nuclear weapons, into the
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changes, Congress possesses the intrinsic power to rescind and limit these powers.
Terrorism causes extinction
Hellman 8
(Martin E, emeritus prof of engineering @ Stanford, “Risk Analysis of Nuclear Deterrence” SPRING, THE BENT OF TAU BETA PI, http://www.nuclearrisk.org/paper.pdf)
The threat of nuclear terrorism looms much larger in the public’s mind than the threat
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assume that preventing World War III is a necessity—not an option.
Flexibility is key to defeat al-Qaeda
Li 09
(Zheyao, JD Georgetown 2009; “War Powers for the Fourth Generation: Constitutional Interpretation in the Age of Asymmetric Warfare,” 7 Geo. J.L. and Pub. Pol'y 373, Lexis – JAK)
By now it should be clear just how different this conflict against the extremist terrorists
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necessary to prevail in fourth-generational conflicts against fourth-generational opponents.
SOP Collapse Inevitable
Information disparity between the president and congress inevitably decreases SOP
Marshall ‘8
William P. Marshall, Kenan Professor of Law, University of North Carolina. Boston Law Review 88:505. http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/documents/MARSHALL.pdf ETB
6. Presidential Access to and Control of Information
If, “in the information age, information is power”62
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resources to ¶ perform these functions, its relative powers will again increase.
Party polarization makes effective SOP impossible
Marshall ‘8
William P. Marshall, Kenan Professor of Law, University of North Carolina. Boston Law Review 88:505. http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/documents/MARSHALL.pdf ETB
- The Inceasingly Polarized Two-Party System
The final reason why presidential power has increased relates to the rise of a ¶
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In those circumstances, the power of the Presidency is effectively ¶ unchecked.
Military and intelligence control will expand prez powers at congress’ expense
Marshall ‘8
William P. Marshall, Kenan Professor of Law, University of North Carolina. Boston Law Review 88:505. http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/documents/MARSHALL.pdf ETB
9. Military and Intelligence Capabilities
The President’s power is also enhanced by the vast military and intelligence ¶ capabilities under
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other methods of ¶ investigation, so does the power of the President.
Media coverage means the executive overpowers other branches
Marshall ‘8
William P. Marshall, Kenan Professor of Law, University of North Carolina. Boston Law Review 88:505. http://www.bu.edu/law/central/jd/organizations/journals/bulr/documents/MARSHALL.pdf ETB
7. The Media and the Presidency
As Justice Jackson recognized in Youngstown, the power of the Presidency ¶ has also
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extent ¶ that no other individual, or institution, can even approximate.
SOP Fails
SOP fails- can’t contain presidential power
Mansfield ‘11
Harvey Mansfield is a professor of government at Harvard and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/13/books/review/book-review-the-executive-unbound-by-eric-a-posner-and-adrian-vermeule.html?pagewanted=all ETB
*Eric Andrew Posner is Kirkland and Ellis Professor of Law at the University of Chicago Law School
- Adrian Vermeule, John H. Watson, Jr. Professor of Law @ Harvard
According to Posner and Vermeule, we now live under an administrative state providing welfare
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and judge law have to defer to the power that administers the law.
No impact- the system is self correcting
Shane ‘9
Peter M. Shane is the Jacob E. Davis and Jacob E. Davis II Chair in Law at the Ohio State University's Moritz College of Law, where he regularly teaches administrative law, constitutional law, law and the presidency, and courses at the intersection of law, democracy, and new media. Madison’s Nightmare: How Executive Power Threatens American Democracy. http://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/749396.html ETB
The attack on checks and balances between 1981 and 2009 can very much be seen
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aspirations for democratic legitimacy that checks and balances are also supposed to advance.
Complete SOP impossible; it’ll never be sufficient to solve their impact
Shane ‘9
Peter M. Shane is the Jacob E. Davis and Jacob E. Davis II Chair in Law at the Ohio State University's Moritz College of Law, where he regularly teaches administrative law, constitutional law, law and the presidency, and courses at the intersection of law, democracy, and new media. Madison’s Nightmare: How Executive Power Threatens American Democracy. http://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/749396.html ETB
To put this point another way, no paper plan for the operation of government
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this web of attitudes, beliefs, and practices our “constitutional culture.”
SOP Fine Now
Squo doesn’t hurt SOP
Lorber ‘13
Eric, J.D. Candidate, University of Pennsylvania Law School, Ph.D Candidate, Duke University
Department of Political Science. Journal Of Constitutional Law 15.3 https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/files/1773-lorber15upajconstl9612013. ETB
This analysis suggests that, given inherent weaknesses in the underlying ¶ statutory schemes, excluding offensive cyber operations from their scope ¶ does not substantially shift the balance of war-making authority between the ¶ President and Congress. This exclusion does, however, provide the ¶ President additional, powerful means by which to conduct military action ¶ without congressional oversight.
SOP Impact Turn – Hegemony
Presidential power is critical to sustain the vital functions of American leadership
Mallaby 2K (Sebastian, Member, Washington Post’s Editorial Board, Foreign Affairs, Jan/Feb)
Finally, some will object that the weakness of the presidency as an institution is
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on cultural forces that nobody can change, such as isolationism or multiculturalism.
Hegemony solves extinction---every other alternative fails---retrenchment fosters transitional conflicts
Bradley A. Thayer 6 is an associate professor in the Department of Defense and Strategic Studies, Missouri State University, “In Defense of Primacy,” November/December 2006, Issue 86, National Interest, p.32, EBSCOHost, Accessed Date: 5-7-13 y2k
A grand strategy based on American primacy means ensuring the United States stays the world's
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--and the world's--to have it last as long as possible.¶
SOP Won’t Collapse
SOP will never collapse- 4 reasons
Shane ‘9
Peter M. Shane is the Jacob E. Davis and Jacob E. Davis II Chair in Law at the Ohio State University's Moritz College of Law, where he regularly teaches administrative law, constitutional law, law and the presidency, and courses at the intersection of law, democracy, and new media. Madison’s Nightmare: How Executive Power Threatens American Democracy. http://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/749396.html ETB
Ordinarily, at least four factors in the American system coincide to produce the culture
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is thus a critical element in preserving the democratic legitimacy of American government.
Strong Executive Solves SOP
A strong president is the only way to ensure correct separation of powers
Calebresi ’95 (Stephen, Law Professor at Northwestern, Alabama Law Review, 1995, pp. 45-46)
A final argument from The Federalist, which implicitly supports the idea of a unitary
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qualified veto, i.e., a veto that Congress can override.
A2: Econ Collapse
Countries turn inward – creates peace
Lloyd deMause, director of The Institute for Psychohistory, “Nuclear War as an Anti-Sexual Group Fantasy” Updated December 18th 2002, http://www.geocities.com/kidhistory/ja/nucsex.htm
The nation "turns inward" during this depressed phase of the cycle. Empirical
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during the depressed phase wanes, arms expeditures decrease and peace treaties multiply.
Economic collapse doesn’t cause war – no causal connection
Thomas P.M. Barnett (senior managing director of Enterra Solutions LLC and a contributing editor/online columnist for Esquire magazine) August 2009 “The New Rules: Security Remains Stable Amid Financial Crisis” http://www.aprodex.com/the-new-rules~-~-security-remains-stable-amid-financial-crisis-398-bl.aspx
When the global financial crisis struck roughly a year ago, the blogosphere was ablaze
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fear-mongering to proceed apace. That's what the Internet is for.
A2: Pres Powers Bad
Presidents won’t abuse prez powers – multiple warrants– no risk of any negative impact.
Goldstein 99 (Joel, Professor of Law at St. Louis University, “The Presidency and the Rule of Law: Some Preliminary Explorations”, St. Louis Law Journal, Vol. 43, Summer 1999)
Would these concessions to executive interpretive autonomy leave us naked before a Chief Executive prone
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to redress any presidential actions deemed to constitute "high crimes and misdemeanors."
A2: Tyranny
Democratic checks prevent their impact from escalating
O’Kane 1997 (“Modernity, the Holocaust, and politics”, Economy and Society, February, ebsco)
Chosen policies cannot be relegated to the position of immediate condition (Nazis in power
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and common attributes of modernity which stand in the way of modern genocides.
No SOP impact – built-in checks prevent tyranny, and Redish’s data is flawed.
Jack Beermann, Professor of Law, Boston University School of Law, Case Western Reserve University, 1990, 40 Case W. Res. 1053
Professor Redish's attack on "democracy bashers" is overstated in a way symptomatic of
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an active judicial role in interpreting and applying statutes violates separation of powers.
DA Links
CMR
The military has empirically backlashed to encroachment upon the ability to conduct offensive cyber operations.
Gjelten ‘13 (Tom, Correspondent for NPR, “First Strike: US Cyber Warriors Seize the Offensive”, World Affairs Journal, January/February 2013, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/first-strike-us-cyber-warriors-seize-offensive, RSR)
In fact, the news that the United States had actually developed and used an
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particularly when engaged with an enemy that has cyber capabilities of his own.
Military planners believe that OCOs are super effective.
Gjelten ‘13 (Tom, Correspondent for NPR, “Pentagon Goes On The Offensive Against Cyberattacks”, NPR, 2-11-13, http://www.npr.org/2013/02/11/171677247/pentagon-goes-on-the-offensive-against-cyber-attacks, RSR)
In some cases, offensive cyberattacks are being conducted within the parameters of conventional military
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years since he gave that speech, such a capability has certainly matured.
Air Force loves OCO’s
Magnuson ‘9
Stew, National Defense Magazine. http://www.nationaldefensemagazine.org/archive/2009/June/Pages/USPlanstoDestroyEnemyComputerNetworksQuestioned.aspx ETB
The Air Force is undergoing a deliberate process to not only train experts in the
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U.S. Strategic Command’s joint functional component command for network warfare.
Terrorism
U.S. cyber operation mobility is key to solve terrorism
Brennan 2012(John, Lieutenant Cololel, March 15, "United States Counter Terrorism Cyber Law and Policy, Enabling or Disabling?", http://nsfp.web.unc.edu/files/2012/09/Brennan_UNITED-STATES-COUNTER-TERRORISM-CYBER-LAW-AND-POLICY.pdf)
Even at the onset of the war against terrorism during the early days of the
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the use of cyber deception is indicated within DoD’s own cyber strategy documents.
Offensive cyber operations key to disrupt terrorist attacks and catch terrorists
Brennan 2012(John, Lieutenant Cololel, March 15, "United States Counter Terrorism Cyber Law and Policy, Enabling or Disabling?", http://nsfp.web.unc.edu/files/2012/09/Brennan_UNITED-STATES-COUNTER-TERRORISM-CYBER-LAW-AND-POLICY.pdf)
Although indentifying international terrorists in cyberspace is critical to successful counterterrorism operations, it is
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not executed) computer network attack against his online magazine, Inspire. 39
UN CP
1NC
The United Nations should pass a resolution banning the preemptive use of large-scale offensive cyber operations.
International agreements are the best way to deter cyberwar – fosters norms that constrain conduct.
Beidleman ‘9 (Scott, Lieutenant Colonel with the US Air Force, “Defining and Deterring Cyber War”, Strategic Research Project, 2009, RSR)
Over and above offensive and defensive cyber capabilities, a robust,¶ international legal framework
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capabilities and serves as their first and possibly only line of¶ deterrence.
2NC Solvency Cards
The UN is a comparatively better actor – individual country regulations are insufficient to solve the threat of cyberwar.
Beidleman ‘9 (Scott, Lieutenant Colonel with the US Air Force, “Defining and Deterring Cyber War”, Strategic Research Project, 2009, RSR)
The U.S. should lead a multilateral effort in conjunction with the UN
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Where appropriate institutions do not exist,¶ we…must create them.”116
Treaties solve – even if they’re violated, empirics prove they still function as a deterrent.
Schneier ‘12 (Bruce, internationally renowned security technologist and author, “An International Cyberwar Treaty Is the Only Way to Stem the Threat”, US News and World Report, 6-8-12, RSR)
The cyberwar arms race is destabilizing. International cooperation and treaties are the only way
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even if they're breached, the world is safer because the treaties exist.